Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Oakland (+3) over Seattle (in London)

This will be the first London game of the season. The Seahawks traveled on Wednesday, while the Raiders didn’t depart until Thursday evening. Jet lag lasts about a day for every two time zones traveled and I think the decision to leave so late in the week could cost Oakland. However, that’s one of the reasons we’re not playing Oakland as a Strong Opinion or Best Bet.

The other reason is a change in offensive philosophy for Seattle that is likely to improve the Seahawks if the strategy continues. Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer deployed a significantly different game plan last week and topped 30 points for the first time this season. Russell Wilson used play-action on more than half of his dropbacks compared to just 17% in the first four weeks (27th-most). The Seahawks gained 11.3 yards per play-action pass play versus the Rams and just 4.4 yards per pass play without play-action. It’s difficult to know whether Schottenheimer’s scheme was specific to the Rams defense or if we’ll see an improved play-action heavy passing attack as the season progresses.

Oakland’s defense has struggled without Khalil Mack, as the Silver and Black have recorded just 46 pressures, the lowest mark in the league. Benching Gareon Conley, whose 1.70 yards allowed per cover snap ranks 10th-worst among qualifying cornerbacks, could help but Conley’s replacement Daryl Worley isn’t great – although his 1.11 yards per cover snap allowed last year in Carolina would be an upgrade, although that number was achieved with a much better pass rush than the Raiders have.

There isn’t much optimism surrounding Seattle’s defense either after allowing 9.5 yards per pass play in their first game without injured All-Pro Safety Earl Thomas. The Raiders target tight ends 5th-most in the league and will look to exploit the gap in the middle of the field left by Thomas with Jared Cook, who’s gaining 2.2 yards per route run (7th). I also expect Oakland’s 10th-rated rush offense to move the chains against a Seahawks rush defense ranked 27th.

The Raiders were without two Pro-Bowlers on the offensive line last week but still managed to gain 5.9 yards per play. Left Guard Kelechi Osemele should return on Sunday, while left tackle Donald Penn remains sidelined with a groin injury. Seattle’s Frank Clark, one of 14 edge rushers to record 20 pressures thus far, should have a favorable matchup on the outside versus rookie Kolton Miller, although Raiders’ quarterback David Carr is known to have a quick release and is completing 71.3% of his passes.

The advanced line for this game was pick, which is right around where our model puts it, but concerns with Oakland’s travel as well as potentially improved play-calling from Schottenheimer will keep me from making this a Best Bet or Strong Opinion.

Team Stats
Game Log

Seahawks
Raiders

SEA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.6 33.4
Succ Pass Plays 46.1% 52.9%
Sack Rate 11.7% 5.7%
Int Rate 1.8% 5.6%
Deep Pass Rate 19.1% 17.1%
Big Pass Yards 46.9% 35.0%
NYPP 7.2 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 28.8 28.0
RB YPR 4.2 4.7
Stuff Rate 22.2% 20.6%
Succ Rush Plays 39.5% 46.2%
Big Rush Yards 38.7% 49.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.9

Game

All Snaps 58.4 61.4
Early Down Succ 43.2% 50.1%
Succ Rate 43.0% 48.2%
Big Yards Rate 44.8% 42.7%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.3 30.2
Run Ratio 49.6% 45.8%
Starting Field Pos 28.2 29.3
Game Control 0.4 -0.4

Points 23.2 22.8

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.2 32.2
Succ Pass Plays 60.0% 48.7%
Sack Rate 5.9% 3.7%
Int Rate 4.1% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 12.6% 21.9%
Big Pass Yards 46.8% 51.8%
NYPP 8.1 9.4

Rush

Rush Plays 25.4 27.0
RB YPR 3.8 4.4
Stuff Rate 22.1% 21.4%
Succ Rush Plays 50.3% 40.7%
Big Rush Yards 27.1% 48.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.6

Game

All Snaps 65.6 59.2
Early Down Succ 58.0% 45.5%
Succ Rate 56.1% 44.0%
Big Yards Rate 43.4% 52.2%
Yards Per Play 6.4 7.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.6 29.6
Run Ratio 38.6% 45.4%
Starting Field Pos 24.7 28.9
Game Control -0.9 0.9

Points 21.4 29.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	24 – 27 L	-1.9	35.9% / 57.5%	15.4% / 2.5%	6.1% / 7.7%	6.2 / 8.1	18.8% / 50.0%	25.0% / 21.9%	4.0 / 4.6	55 / 72	34.9% / 58.3%	30.9% / 54.2%	63.7% / 53.2%	5.6 / 6.5	1.8% / 0.0%	29.1% / 44.4%	27.4 / 26.6
2	@CHI	17 – 24 L	-7.4	43.6% / 52.8%	15.4% / 5.6%	3.0% / 5.9%	5.2 / 5.1	45.5% / 48.3%	13.6% / 13.8%	3.4 / 3.0	61 / 65	44.9% / 55.1%	44.3% / 50.8%	23.2% / 6.3%	4.5 / 4.2	1.6% / 0.0%	36.1% / 44.6%	24.5 / 33.6
3	DAL	24 – 13 W	8.3	42.9% / 28.2%	7.1% / 12.8%	0.0% / 5.9%	6.5 / 3.5	30.0% / 52.6%	30.0% / 15.8%	2.9 / 8.7	68 / 58	34.0% / 39.5%	35.3% / 36.2%	34.8% / 51.2%	4.4 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.7%	58.8% / 32.8%	27.2 / 25.9
4	@ARI	20 – 17 W	2.0	48.1% / 42.9%	7.4% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.1	50.0% / 39.3%	23.5% / 35.7%	5.0 / 3.3	61 / 56	58.0% / 40.9%	49.2% / 41.1%	35.6% / 54.0%	5.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.8%	55.7% / 50.0%	35.5 / 26.4
5	LA	31 – 33 L	1.0	60.0% / 83.3%	13.3% / 4.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	12.2 / 13.0	53.1% / 40.6%	18.8% / 15.6%	5.9 / 4.9	47 / 56	44.2% / 56.9%	55.3% / 58.9%	66.5% / 49.1%	7.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	68.1% / 57.1%	26.6 / 33.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LA	13 – 33 L	-1.4	48.8% / 44.1%	2.4% / 2.9%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.3 / 6.6	56.5% / 55.6%	17.4% / 3.7%	4.1 / 5.2	64 / 61	52.8% / 54.2%	51.6% / 49.2%	39.2% / 39.3%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.9% / 44.3%	23.5 / 27.0
2	@DEN	19 – 20 L	6.1	72.7% / 36.1%	3.0% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.5 / 6.0	44.4% / 57.1%	18.5% / 17.9%	3.4 / 6.0	60 / 64	67.3% / 42.6%	60.0% / 45.3%	41.3% / 57.7%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 43.8%	23.9 / 25.7
3	@MIA	20 – 28 L	2.8	57.1% / 48.0%	7.1% / 4.0%	5.1% / 0.0%	7.7 / 13.3	55.9% / 20.0%	14.7% / 33.3%	3.3 / 2.8	76 / 40	62.1% / 43.3%	56.6% / 37.5%	32.6% / 62.8%	5.7 / 9.4	0.0% / 0.0%	44.7% / 37.5%	19.7 / 30.6
4	CLE	45 – 42 W	-2.1	53.3% / 37.2%	5.0% / 4.7%	3.5% / 4.9%	7.1 / 6.5	33.3% / 43.8%	36.7% / 21.9%	4.7 / 6.5	90 / 75	52.1% / 42.1%	46.7% / 40.0%	44.2% / 57.8%	6.3 / 6.5	0.0% / 2.7%	33.3% / 42.7%	34.9 / 26.1
5	@LAC	10 – 26 L	-9.9	68.0% / 78.3%	12.0% / 4.3%	4.5% / 0.0%	9.9 / 14.5	61.5% / 27.3%	23.1% / 30.3%	3.2 / 2.5	38 / 56	55.6% / 45.5%	65.8% / 48.2%	59.5% / 43.4%	7.6 / 7.4	2.6% / 0.0%	34.2% / 58.9%	21.2 / 35.3

Seattle Seahawks vs

Oakland Raiders

Sun, Oct 14

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis