Game Analysis
LA RAMS (-10) vs Seattle
The Rams and Seahawks will once again be without crucial members of their secondaries for this battle between the top two teams in the NFC West. Los Angeles is conceding 6.2 yards per play since losing Aqib Talib, compared to just 5.6 yards per play before his week 3 injury. Marcus Peters hasn’t been able to step up as a top cornerback as he’s already surrendered more touchdowns and yards in coverage than he did all last season for the Chiefs. Peters is allowing 2.22 yards per cover snap since Talib went out, which ranks 2nd-worst among qualifying cornerbacks in that stretch, and I expect Seattle to attack the Rams deep on play-action. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense is conceding 6.1 yards per play without Earl Thomas compared to just 5.3 yards per play with Thomas in the lineup the first 4 weeks. Los Angeles will likely look deep as well in this game.
The stadium should be packed with Seattle fans and home-field for divisional favorites is already valued less due to familiarity. The Seahawks typically don’t get blown out as they’ve only lost one game by double-digits in the last 2 seasons, which is tied for the fewest with the Chiefs and Eagles. Russell Wilson is 18-10-3 ATS in his career as an underdog and our model favors the Rams by 9.1 points. The Rams, however, apply to a 42-11 ATS situation that plays on favorites of more than 3 points that are coming off a loss in which they scored 30 points or more. I’ll pass but if you need to pick this game for your pool then I’d prefer Seattle.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.0
34.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.2%
50.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.4%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.5%
15.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.4%
35.5%
-
NYPP
7.8
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.1
24.3
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
21.5%
21.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.5%
45.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.3%
47.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
58.6
-
Early Down Succ
45.9%
49.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
47.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.6
29.7
-
Run Ratio
52.8%
41.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
25.4
-
Game Control
2.7
-2.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
35.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.0%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
19.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.8%
51.6%
-
NYPP
9.0
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.4
22.7
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
14.6%
20.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.2%
49.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.7%
38.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
57.8
-
Early Down Succ
57.9%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
53.9%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.0%
47.8%
-
Yards Per Play
7.0
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
30.2
-
Run Ratio
47.9%
39.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.1
25.4
-
Game Control
4.8
-4.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
24 – 27 L |
-1.9 |
35.9% /
57.5% |
15.4% /
2.5% |
6.1% /
7.7% |
6.2 /
8.1 |
18.8% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
21.9% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
55 /
72 |
34.9% /
58.3% |
30.9% /
54.2% |
63.7% /
53.2% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
44.4% |
27.4 /
26.6 |
| 2 |
@CHI |
17 – 24 L |
-7.4 |
43.6% /
52.8% |
15.4% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
5.9% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
45.5% /
48.3% |
13.6% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
3.0 |
61 /
65 |
44.9% /
55.1% |
44.3% /
50.8% |
23.2% /
6.3% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
44.6% |
24.5 /
33.6 |
| 3 |
DAL |
24 – 13 W |
8.3 |
42.9% /
28.2% |
7.1% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
6.5 /
3.5 |
30.0% /
52.6% |
30.0% /
15.8% |
2.9 /
8.7 |
68 /
58 |
34.0% /
39.5% |
35.3% /
36.2% |
34.8% /
51.2% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
58.8% /
32.8% |
27.2 /
25.9 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
20 – 17 W |
2.0 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.1 |
50.0% /
39.3% |
23.5% /
35.7% |
5.0 /
3.3 |
61 /
56 |
58.0% /
40.9% |
49.2% /
41.1% |
35.6% /
54.0% |
5.4 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
55.7% /
50.0% |
35.5 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
LA |
31 – 33 L |
1.0 |
60.0% /
83.3% |
13.3% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
12.2 /
13.0 |
53.1% /
40.6% |
18.8% /
15.6% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
47 /
56 |
44.2% /
56.9% |
55.3% /
58.9% |
66.5% /
49.1% |
7.9 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
68.1% /
57.1% |
26.6 /
33.7 |
| 6 |
@OAK |
27 – 3 W |
15.9 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
4.2% /
16.2% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
2.9 |
46.2% /
52.6% |
15.4% /
15.8% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
63 /
56 |
45.7% /
46.5% |
47.6% /
42.9% |
46.9% /
31.9% |
5.9 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
61.9% /
33.9% |
42.2 /
20.5 |
| 8 |
@DET |
28 – 14 W |
8.8 |
57.9% /
55.8% |
10.5% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
12.5 /
6.9 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
23.8% /
23.1% |
4.2 /
2.6 |
61 /
56 |
53.2% /
47.8% |
52.5% /
50.0% |
48.7% /
26.0% |
6.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
68.9% /
23.2% |
25.8 /
15.0 |
| 9 |
LAC |
17 – 25 L |
-5.4 |
39.0% /
42.9% |
9.8% /
7.1% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
62.5% /
50.0% |
21.9% /
31.8% |
4.8 /
7.3 |
73 /
50 |
52.7% /
51.2% |
49.3% /
46.0% |
30.3% /
69.9% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
44.0% |
25.1 /
21.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@OAK |
33 – 13 W |
1.4 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
2.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
55.6% /
56.5% |
3.7% /
17.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
61 /
64 |
54.2% /
52.8% |
49.2% /
51.6% |
39.3% /
39.2% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
35.9% |
27.0 /
23.5 |
| 2 |
ARI |
34 – 0 W |
14.9 |
64.7% /
21.4% |
5.9% /
3.6% |
3.1% /
3.7% |
10.1 /
3.0 |
48.5% /
33.3% |
24.2% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
3.6 |
67 /
43 |
59.2% /
23.3% |
56.7% /
25.6% |
51.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.9% |
39.1 /
19.0 |
| 3 |
LAC |
35 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.5% /
40.6% |
2.7% /
6.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
6.7 |
62.2% /
60.0% |
10.8% /
30.0% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
74 /
52 |
62.7% /
45.9% |
60.8% /
48.1% |
45.5% /
62.9% |
7.1 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
3.8% |
50.0% /
38.5% |
22.8 /
26.6 |
| 4 |
MIN |
38 – 31 W |
3.9 |
60.0% /
51.9% |
2.9% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
7.3 |
57.1% /
35.3% |
14.3% /
35.3% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
56 /
71 |
68.1% /
45.3% |
58.9% /
47.9% |
55.7% /
38.8% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
23.9% |
26.6 /
27.2 |
| 5 |
@SEA |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
83.3% /
60.0% |
4.2% /
13.3% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
12.2 |
40.6% /
53.1% |
15.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
56 /
47 |
56.9% /
44.2% |
58.9% /
55.3% |
49.1% /
66.5% |
8.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
68.1% |
33.7 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
23 – 20 W |
8.2 |
30.3% /
48.8% |
15.2% /
4.7% |
3.6% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
6.9 |
68.3% /
33.3% |
2.4% /
16.7% |
6.6 /
3.4 |
74 /
61 |
55.8% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
44.3% |
53.8% /
48.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
29.5% |
28.5 /
27.0 |
| 7 |
@SF |
39 – 10 W |
16.0 |
53.8% /
29.4% |
7.7% /
20.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.1 /
3.6 |
57.9% /
62.5% |
10.5% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
4.5 |
64 /
58 |
67.4% /
47.8% |
56.3% /
43.1% |
37.1% /
68.9% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
59.4% /
41.4% |
40.8 /
26.7 |
| 8 |
GB |
29 – 27 W |
-2.6 |
43.9% /
45.5% |
12.2% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.7 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
28.6% /
21.1% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
76 /
52 |
43.6% /
58.1% |
43.4% /
51.9% |
51.3% /
69.4% |
5.5 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
46.1% /
36.5% |
31.7 /
21.1 |
| 9 |
@NO |
35 – 45 L |
-6.9 |
55.0% /
58.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
9.6 |
36.8% /
44.4% |
21.1% /
11.1% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
59 /
72 |
53.1% /
51.9% |
49.2% /
51.4% |
48.0% /
36.6% |
8.2 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
32.2% /
50.0% |
30.0 /
31.4 |
Seattle Seahawks
@ 
Los Angeles Rams