Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-10) vs Seattle

· The Chiefs were taken to overtime by the Texans last week, but it certainly wasn’t the fault of Patrick Mahomes, who had only five incompletions and averaged 7.3 yards per pass play. Kansas City won despite over 100 penalty yards and two turnovers.

· Mahomes has three main weapons at this point in the season and all three have favorable matchups against the Seahawks defense. Travis Kelce leads all TEs averaging 0.52 EPA/target and Seattle is allowing 8.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends (31st).

· Chiefs inside WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging a 66% success rate (2nd) and Seahawks nickelback Coby Bryant is surrendering 1.34 yards per slot cover snap (3rd-worst).

· Kansas City RB Jerick McKinnon had 8 receptions for 70 yards and a score through the air last week. Seattle’s defense is surrendering a league-high 7.1 yards per target to running backs.

· Seahawks edge defender Uchenna Nwosu ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency and he will force Mahomes out of the pocket. No tackle tandem has surrendered more pressure than Andrew Wylie and Orlando Brown with 43 apiece.

· Geno Smith averaged 6.9 yppp the first 13 weeks of this season before averaging just 5.2 yppp the last two games and I expect his slide to continue.

· Smith leads the league with 13 dropped interceptions in 2022.

· Seattle WR Tyler Lockett was having an underrated year with a 64% success rate (4th). Lockett is out after having hand surgery and is worth 0.7 points.

· Seahawks guard Gabe Jackson is surrendering an 8% pressure rate and he will struggle versus DT Chris Jones, whose 55 pressures leads all interior defenders.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by only 7.5 points, with a predicted total of 49.1 points, but the matchups favor KC. KC by 9.5 is a fair line given the matchups.