Game Analysis
Lean – JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Seattle
The Jaguars have the league’s best sack rate at 10.2% and on the surface it would seem like a great matchup for their defense against a Seahawks offensive line allowing the fourth-most pressures in the NFL. However, Seattle’s offensive line is much improved since the addition of left tackle Duane Brown. Since Brown was acquired, Russell Wilson has been under pressure on 23.1% of passing plays compared to 39.4% before Brown’s arrival.
Seattle’s rush defense got off to a poor start ranking 30th in my metrics through the first 8 weeks, however, they turned it around and haven’t allowed an opponent to average more than 3.8 yards per rush in the second half of the season. The Jaguars have the highest rushing rate in the league but I expect them to have trouble on the ground and I’m not sure Blake Bortles will be able to exploit this vulnerable Seahawks secondary without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman.
While the match-up may not be ideal for Jacksonville my ratings suggest that the line is fair and Seattle applies to a 44-100-2 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s ‘upset’ of Philadelphia. I’ll lean slightly with Jacksonville at -2.5 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.0
38.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.3%
40.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.6%
23.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.7%
37.6%
-
NYPP
6.6
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.4
26.1
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
27.8%
25.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.3%
42.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.7%
35.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.4
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
45.1%
42.3%
-
Succ Rate
43.0%
40.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.9%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
27.5
-
Run Ratio
41.2%
40.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
26.8
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.0%
37.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
10.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
3.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.3%
41.3%
-
NYPP
6.2
4.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.9
26.6
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.7%
34.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
67.8
63.0
-
Early Down Succ
44.6%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
42.7%
42.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.2%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
27.4
-
Run Ratio
50.4%
42.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
27.0
-
Game Control
5.1
-5.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@GB |
9 – 17 L |
-2.5 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
10.0% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.5 /
6.2 |
38.9% /
35.5% |
50.0% /
19.4% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
48 /
77 |
44.4% /
44.6% |
39.6% /
44.2% |
58.7% /
37.8% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
40.3% |
27.5 /
25.9 |
| 2 |
SF |
12 – 9 W |
2.0 |
33.3% /
20.7% |
7.1% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
4.3 /
3.1 |
37.2% /
52.6% |
20.9% /
21.1% |
3.1 /
8.4 |
85 /
48 |
37.5% /
38.9% |
35.3% /
33.3% |
23.7% /
49.2% |
3.7 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.6% /
39.6% |
23.9 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
@TEN |
27 – 33 L |
-4.9 |
50.0% /
51.6% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
40.9% /
44.4% |
31.8% /
22.2% |
3.1 /
5.4 |
72 /
67 |
51.8% /
54.9% |
47.2% /
47.8% |
38.8% /
44.9% |
6.0 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
53.7% |
23.3 /
29.6 |
| 4 |
IND |
46 – 18 W |
7.0 |
65.5% /
37.5% |
10.3% /
9.4% |
7.7% /
3.4% |
9.8 /
4.3 |
42.4% /
52.0% |
24.2% /
8.0% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
62 /
57 |
47.8% /
44.2% |
53.2% /
43.9% |
67.7% /
30.0% |
7.7 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
53.2% /
43.9% |
20.2 /
28.3 |
| 5 |
@LA |
16 – 10 W |
-0.8 |
45.0% /
35.4% |
7.5% /
4.2% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
19.2% /
40.9% |
23.1% /
45.5% |
2.4 /
4.5 |
66 /
70 |
31.3% /
33.3% |
34.8% /
37.1% |
8.7% /
44.3% |
3.7 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
39.4% /
31.4% |
35.2 /
29.2 |
| 7 |
@NYG |
24 – 7 W |
1.0 |
50.0% /
22.5% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
3.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
21.9% /
17.6% |
3.3 /
2.7 |
72 /
57 |
53.6% /
31.8% |
50.0% /
28.1% |
43.9% /
14.1% |
5.9 /
3.1 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
44.4% /
29.8% |
33.8 /
22.8 |
| 8 |
HOU |
41 – 38 W |
-1.4 |
51.2% /
45.7% |
4.7% /
14.3% |
2.4% /
10.0% |
10.4 /
10.5 |
17.4% /
50.0% |
39.1% /
17.6% |
1.5 /
4.2 |
66 /
69 |
44.0% /
51.7% |
39.4% /
47.8% |
62.4% /
72.7% |
7.3 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
49.3% |
27.4 /
22.4 |
| 9 |
WAS |
14 – 17 L |
-2.3 |
43.5% /
40.5% |
4.3% /
16.2% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.2 |
57.1% /
39.1% |
14.3% /
34.8% |
5.3 /
2.2 |
74 /
60 |
51.7% /
42.6% |
48.6% /
40.0% |
48.5% /
51.6% |
5.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
37.8% /
38.3% |
30.7 /
27.8 |
| 10 |
@ARI |
22 – 16 W |
5.5 |
47.2% /
42.9% |
13.9% /
4.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
5.2 |
20.8% /
20.8% |
33.3% /
41.7% |
3.2 /
1.4 |
60 /
73 |
42.2% /
34.5% |
36.7% /
35.6% |
51.0% /
6.9% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
40.0% /
32.9% |
27.1 /
27.7 |
| 11 |
ATL |
31 – 34 L |
-8.5 |
48.9% /
53.6% |
6.7% /
3.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
65.2% /
34.4% |
21.7% /
21.9% |
5.9 /
2.8 |
68 /
60 |
57.4% /
40.5% |
54.4% /
43.3% |
46.7% /
37.7% |
5.3 /
4.7 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
33.8% /
53.3% |
36.4 /
33.0 |
| 12 |
@SF |
24 – 13 W |
7.2 |
44.1% /
38.1% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
4.7 |
38.7% /
45.8% |
25.8% /
33.3% |
2.9 /
3.5 |
65 /
66 |
44.0% /
42.9% |
41.5% /
40.9% |
48.6% /
43.6% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
36.4% |
32.2 /
25.4 |
| 13 |
PHI |
24 – 10 W |
8.3 |
48.5% /
45.8% |
6.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.3 /
6.8 |
19.2% /
53.8% |
26.9% /
23.1% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
59 /
74 |
35.6% /
48.1% |
35.6% /
48.6% |
39.5% /
51.8% |
5.3 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
44.1% /
35.1% |
20.4 /
25.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% /
34.8% |
0.0% /
21.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.0 /
2.4 |
41.5% /
60.9% |
17.1% /
17.4% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
62 /
69 |
53.3% /
44.6% |
45.2% /
43.5% |
32.6% /
12.8% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
66.1% /
33.3% |
38.2 /
26.5 |
| 2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% /
42.9% |
5.6% /
3.6% |
5.9% /
3.7% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
64.0% /
68.4% |
12.0% /
10.5% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
61 /
66 |
52.1% /
64.0% |
50.8% /
57.6% |
23.5% /
41.6% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.0% /
57.6% |
23.4 /
39.9 |
| 3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% /
24.1% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.4 /
1.8 |
31.6% /
56.0% |
10.5% /
20.0% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
71 /
54 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
42.3% /
38.9% |
35.8% /
39.2% |
5.8 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
53.5% /
46.3% |
38.5 /
24.1 |
| 4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% /
44.4% |
2.8% /
13.9% |
2.9% /
3.2% |
3.8 /
6.0 |
57.5% /
31.3% |
20.0% /
43.8% |
4.4 /
8.0 |
76 /
68 |
50.8% /
37.3% |
44.7% /
38.2% |
27.6% /
68.6% |
4.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
52.6% /
47.1% |
27.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% /
42.9% |
12.5% /
3.6% |
7.1% /
9.3% |
5.1 /
5.4 |
40.5% /
40.0% |
24.3% /
35.0% |
6.2 /
3.5 |
53 /
76 |
36.6% /
41.0% |
39.6% /
42.1% |
60.1% /
44.5% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
26.4 /
21.8 |
| 6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% /
37.5% |
12.5% /
12.5% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
42.3% /
64.7% |
30.8% /
20.6% |
6.5 /
4.2 |
66 /
58 |
42.0% /
65.9% |
39.4% /
53.4% |
54.2% /
35.5% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
39.4% /
58.6% |
25.3 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% /
34.0% |
3.6% /
21.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
2.9 |
44.7% /
60.0% |
21.1% /
20.0% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
66 /
67 |
49.0% /
46.9% |
48.5% /
41.8% |
61.8% /
41.4% |
7.9 /
3.5 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
57.6% /
29.9% |
20.1 /
28.0 |
| 9 |
CIN |
23 – 7 W |
7.2 |
55.3% /
30.0% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
41.5% /
15.8% |
12.2% /
21.1% |
3.7 /
1.6 |
79 /
39 |
44.1% /
29.6% |
48.1% /
23.1% |
32.8% /
52.7% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
51.9% /
48.7% |
21.1 /
20.2 |
| 10 |
LAC |
20 – 17 W |
-0.3 |
37.0% /
43.2% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
3.9% /
2.7% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
29.6% /
48.4% |
29.6% /
25.8% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
81 /
68 |
36.1% /
54.9% |
34.6% /
45.6% |
34.7% /
38.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
33.3% /
45.6% |
30.7 /
21.1 |
| 11 |
@CLE |
19 – 7 W |
3.9 |
31.3% /
32.4% |
6.3% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
4.5 /
3.6 |
31.1% /
36.8% |
35.6% /
26.3% |
3.1 /
2.7 |
77 /
56 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
31.2% /
33.9% |
24.2% /
42.2% |
3.7 /
3.3 |
1.3% /
5.4% |
58.4% /
33.9% |
33.0 /
30.4 |
| 12 |
@ARI |
24 – 27 L |
-5.2 |
40.0% /
43.6% |
8.6% /
2.6% |
3.1% /
2.6% |
3.7 /
6.1 |
36.4% /
40.6% |
31.8% /
21.9% |
4.1 /
3.4 |
57 /
71 |
45.5% /
44.2% |
38.6% /
42.3% |
31.5% /
33.9% |
3.8 /
4.9 |
3.5% /
1.4% |
38.6% /
45.1% |
25.5 /
30.9 |
| 13 |
IND |
30 – 10 W |
11.5 |
56.8% /
44.7% |
2.7% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
8.9 /
3.9 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
15.4% |
3.6 /
5.4 |
64 /
64 |
45.8% /
46.7% |
50.0% /
46.9% |
39.9% /
39.3% |
6.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
40.6% |
30.9 /
21.3 |
Seattle Seahawks
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars