Game Analysis

DETROIT (-3.5) vs Seattle

• Geno Smith has been pressured on 14.3 dropbacks per game (7th-most) and it is likely to get worse on Monday night.
• Lions’ edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson’s 25 pressures are 7 more than anyone else this season. He has somehow done it exclusively against backup and 3rd-string tackles. He gets another one this week with Seahawks 3rd-string RT Stone Forsythe ranked 43rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifiers.
• Seattle’s interior offensive line is responsible for 63.9% of the pressures (3rd-most) and they will struggle versus interior defender Levi Onwuzurike, who ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Smith will need to get the ball out fast in this game, but Detroit’s defense can contain the underneath routes to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has 148 slot receiving yards (4th). Lions nickelback Amik Robertson is allowing just 0.69 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th).
• Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet has a 42% success rate as a pass catcher out of the backfield (7th) but Detroit’s defense is allowing -0.26 EPA/target to opposing running backs (7th).
• The Lions should get even better defending quick passes this week with LB Alex Anzalone likely back in uniform. Anzalone leads linebackers with a 63% separation prevented rate.
• This game will likely come down to whether or not Smith can connect on some deep shots to wide receiver DK Metcalf, who has a league-leading 3 receptions with 20+ air yards. Metcalf will go against Detroit CB Carlton Davis, who is allowing 2.00 yards per cover snap, which ranks 90th out of 92 qualifying cornerbacks. However, Davis uses a boom-or-bust handsy approach and might not surrender as many yards as we progress through the season. Davis had a 69% separation prevented rate last week (8th).
• Seattle RB Zach Charbonnet had 91 rushing yards last week, but he is unlikely to force 9 missed tackles again versus a Lions defense allowing -0.26 EPA/rush (3rd).
• There are some injuries to go through for both teams this week. Detroit C Frank Ragnow ranked 6th in pass blocking efficiency last year but it looks like he will be sidelined. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks could be without both starting interior defenders. Leonard Williams ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and rookie Byron Murphy ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Lions’ safety Brian Branch left last game late due to a concussion. Branch has a 58% separation prevented rate (13th) and he is worth a half point.
• Detroit TE Sam LaPorta is banged-up and is also worth 0.5 points by our metrics after averaging 1.76 yards per route run in 2023 (5th).
• Seattle edge rusher Boye Mafe has 17 pressures (4th) but he will be limited by RT Penei Sewell, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Jared Goff should be kept clean but his top wide receiver targets could struggle based on the matchups. Seahawks cornerback Tariq Woolen is allowing only 0.27 yards per cover snap (4th) and he will contain WR Jameson Williams, who is averaging 1.95 yards per route run (17th).
• Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has 106 receiving yards from the slot (10th) but nickelback Devon Witherspoon is conceding only 0.65 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).
• Our model makes Detroit a 3.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.0.