Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (48.5) – DETROIT (-5.5) vs Seattle

· Seattle’s defense and offense are trending in opposite directions as they could be getting two members of the starting secondary back in CB Devon Witherspoon and S Jamal Adams while it looks like both starting offensive tackles will be out this week.

· LT Charles Cross and RT Abe Lucas both left the game against the Rams, which makes a major difference for Geno Smith. Seattle’s offensive line did not concede a sack in 19 dropbacks with Cross and Lucas on the field, but Smith averaged -1.0 yppp with both his starting tackles sidelined against the Rams.

· The Seahawks really couldn’t do anything in the second half offensively and managing just 14 plays, which is the fewest for any offense in a half in the last four years.

· It could remain ugly for Seattle’s offense without both Cross and Lucas available in Detroit. The Seahawks signed rookie offensive lineman Raiqwon O’Neal off Tampa Bay’s practice squad and 41-year-old tackle Jason Peters off the street. Peters won’t play in this game, but these are moves signaling they feel like they’ll be thin at tackle for a while.

· Lions edge defender Aidan Hutchinson had 7 pressures in week 1 (3rd) and he will be in Smith’s lap all afternoon.

· Seattle’s offensive coordinator Shane Waldron may want to focus on the ground game to keep Detroit’s pass rush honest, but the Lions were excellent at defending the run against the Chiefs. Detroit’s defense conceded just a 24% rush success rate (6th) in the NFL Opener.

· I continue to think the Lions offense is not the top 5 unit the market is implying. Detroit’s offensive line is a top 5 unit by our numbers but the group of receivers is near the bottom of the NFL. WR Jameson Williams is out to start the season, leaving Amon-Ra St. Brown as the only receiver above replacement level on this offense. Wide receivers Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Jones combined for just 1.38 yards per route run in 2022.

· Jared Goff finished below Marcus Mariota last season with a completion percentage versus expectation of -2.1% and his CPOE was -2.5% in week 1.

· Detroit’s offense managed just 14 points against the Chiefs and benefitted from a pick-six that led to that upset win.

· Our model favors the Lions by 7.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 48 points or more.