Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion Over (42.5) – DENVER (-3) over Seattle

Seattle has been on a downward trend since losing to the Patriots in Super Bowl 49 and last season’s team missed the playoffs for the first time in the Russell Wilson era. Seattle ranked 10th in our final 2017 rankings and it’s likely that the Seahawks will drop even more in 2018 due to significant changes on the defensive side of the ball. The Seahawks lost 5 Pro-Bowlers in Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Sheldon Richardson, Michael Bennett, and Cliff Avril. We’re projecting Seattle’s defense to finish in the bottom half of the league for the first time since Pete Carroll’s first season.

Seattle’s offensive regression last season was due to an atrocious ground game. The Seahawks’ running backs had a historically awful season, managing just a 27% success rate earning the distinction of being the only group of RBs below 30% in the last four seasons according to our database. Consequently, Russell Wilson’s ability to successfully break containment and scramble was needed to keep Seattle’s offense on the field. The Seahawks are 4.4 points per game better when Wilson gains at least 3.5 yards per rush throughout his career and it’s worth noting 63% of games he failed to reach the 3.5 mark were against NFC West opponents despite divisional games accounting for only 38% of his schedule. Wilson should find running room on Sunday versus an unfamiliar opponent in Denver.

Last year’s Broncos finished below .500 for the first time since 2010 in Vance Joseph’s first year as head coach mostly due to poor quarterback play. The combination of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch produced -0.13 points per passing play, making them the second-worst passing offense in the league last season. Case Keenum arrives in Denver after coming off a career year in Minnesota where he rated as our 8th-most productive quarterback in the NFL. I don’t expect his play to continue at that level given Keenum’s modest career numbers and considering quarterbacks play about a point below expectations in their first year with a new team. However, even using Keenum’s career numbers would lead to a 5.8 points per game increase over Denver’s quarterbacks last year. Keenum has two proven weapons, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who both finished top 25 in yards per route run three consecutive seasons before dropping off in 2017 due to poor quarterback play, and I expect Denver’s offense to be much improved this season.

Denver’s defense will be downgraded significantly at cornerback with the below average Bradley Roby replacing Aqib Talib, who ranked 2nd in yards allowed per cover snap last season. This will put pressure on rookie DE Bradley Chubb, the 5th-overall pick in the draft, to perform at a high level right away opposite Von Miller.

Playing in altitude early in the year is difficult as players adapt to the speed of the regular season. Consequently, Denver is 29-13-2 at home in the first two weeks, including 19-4 against non-divisional opponents, and the Broncos apply to a 71-43-3 ATS week 1 contrary indicator. It appears some of that is factored into the line as the Broncos are favored by a full 3 points despite having a market implied wins below the Seahawks but I’d still lean with the Denver side in this one if the line is at -2.5 or less. The tired lungs particularly affect defenders with Denver games going 13-7-1 to the over in weeks 1 and 2 since 2000. That trend combined with both defenses expected to drop-off, Russell Wilson playing an unfamiliar opponent, and an improved Broncos’ offense with Case Keenum makes Over 42.5 a Strong Opinion.

Team Stats
Game Log

Seahawks
Broncos

SEA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.1 36.9
Succ Pass Plays 44.0% 41.5%
Sack Rate 7.6% 6.5%
Int Rate 2.2% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 23.8% 21.7%
Big Pass Yards 49.1% 33.6%
NYPP 6.1 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 26.6 28.9
RB YPR 3.0 3.7
Stuff Rate 30.0% 22.4%
Succ Rush Plays 38.9% 45.3%
Big Rush Yards 52.2% 35.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.9

Game

All Snaps 63.8 65.8
Early Down Succ 44.0% 45.1%
Succ Rate 41.5% 42.7%
Big Yards Rate 50.3% 37.9%
Yards Per Play 5.2 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 28.0
Run Ratio 41.7% 43.9%
Starting Field Pos 27.9 28.7
Game Control -1.5 1.5

Points 22.9 20.8

DEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.6 32.8
Succ Pass Plays 39.9% 43.9%
Sack Rate 8.7% 6.9%
Int Rate 3.8% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 17.6%
Big Pass Yards 42.3% 40.5%
NYPP 5.5 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 29.3 27.8
RB YPR 3.7 3.0
Stuff Rate 21.7% 30.7%
Succ Rush Plays 41.5% 33.2%
Big Rush Yards 29.2% 30.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.2

Game

All Snaps 67.8 60.5
Early Down Succ 41.4% 42.8%
Succ Rate 40.3% 39.0%
Big Yards Rate 39.3% 39.1%
Yards Per Play 4.8 4.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 28.4
Run Ratio 42.7% 45.8%
Starting Field Pos 26.8 32.5
Game Control -4.3 4.3

Points 18.1 23.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@GB	9 – 17 L	-2.5	40.0% / 50.0%	10.0% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.5 / 6.2	38.9% / 35.5%	50.0% / 19.4%	5.0 / 2.8	48 / 77	44.4% / 44.6%	39.6% / 44.2%	58.7% / 37.8%	4.7 / 4.8	2.1% / 0.0%	37.5% / 40.3%	27.5 / 25.9
2	SF	12 – 9 W	2.0	33.3% / 20.7%	7.1% / 6.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	4.3 / 3.1	37.2% / 52.6%	20.9% / 21.1%	3.1 / 8.4	85 / 48	37.5% / 38.9%	35.3% / 33.3%	23.7% / 49.2%	3.7 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.6% / 39.6%	23.9 / 24.5
3	@TEN	27 – 33 L	-4.9	50.0% / 51.6%	2.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 7.3	40.9% / 44.4%	31.8% / 22.2%	3.1 / 5.4	72 / 67	51.8% / 54.9%	47.2% / 47.8%	38.8% / 44.9%	6.0 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	30.6% / 53.7%	23.3 / 29.6
4	IND	46 – 18 W	7.0	65.5% / 37.5%	10.3% / 9.4%	7.7% / 3.4%	9.8 / 4.3	42.4% / 52.0%	24.2% / 8.0%	5.9 / 3.9	62 / 57	47.8% / 44.2%	53.2% / 43.9%	67.7% / 30.0%	7.7 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.8%	53.2% / 43.9%	20.2 / 28.3
5	@LA	16 – 10 W	-0.8	45.0% / 35.4%	7.5% / 4.2%	5.4% / 4.3%	4.5 / 5.7	19.2% / 40.9%	23.1% / 45.5%	2.4 / 4.5	66 / 70	31.3% / 33.3%	34.8% / 37.1%	8.7% / 44.3%	3.7 / 5.4	0.0% / 4.3%	39.4% / 31.4%	35.2 / 29.2
7	@NYG	24 – 7 W	1.0	50.0% / 22.5%	2.5% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 3.3	50.0% / 41.2%	21.9% / 17.6%	3.3 / 2.7	72 / 57	53.6% / 31.8%	50.0% / 28.1%	43.9% / 14.1%	5.9 / 3.1	1.4% / 1.8%	44.4% / 29.8%	33.8 / 22.8
8	HOU	41 – 38 W	-1.4	51.2% / 45.7%	4.7% / 14.3%	2.4% / 10.0%	10.4 / 10.5	17.4% / 50.0%	39.1% / 17.6%	1.5 / 4.2	66 / 69	44.0% / 51.7%	39.4% / 47.8%	62.4% / 72.7%	7.3 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	34.8% / 49.3%	27.4 / 22.4
9	WAS	14 – 17 L	-2.3	43.5% / 40.5%	4.3% / 16.2%	4.5% / 0.0%	6.3 / 5.2	57.1% / 39.1%	14.3% / 34.8%	5.3 / 2.2	74 / 60	51.7% / 42.6%	48.6% / 40.0%	48.5% / 51.6%	5.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.7%	37.8% / 38.3%	30.7 / 27.8
10	@ARI	22 – 16 W	5.5	47.2% / 42.9%	13.9% / 4.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 5.2	20.8% / 20.8%	33.3% / 41.7%	3.2 / 1.4	60 / 73	42.2% / 34.5%	36.7% / 35.6%	51.0% / 6.9%	4.8 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.4%	40.0% / 32.9%	27.1 / 27.7
11	ATL	31 – 34 L	-8.5	48.9% / 53.6%	6.7% / 3.6%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.0 / 6.8	65.2% / 34.4%	21.7% / 21.9%	5.9 / 2.8	68 / 60	57.4% / 40.5%	54.4% / 43.3%	46.7% / 37.7%	5.3 / 4.7	1.5% / 1.7%	33.8% / 53.3%	36.4 / 33.0
12	@SF	24 – 13 W	7.2	44.1% / 38.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	2.9% / 2.6%	6.7 / 4.7	38.7% / 45.8%	25.8% / 33.3%	2.9 / 3.5	65 / 66	44.0% / 42.9%	41.5% / 40.9%	48.6% / 43.6%	4.9 / 4.2	0.0% / 0.0%	47.7% / 36.4%	32.2 / 25.4
13	PHI	24 – 10 W	8.3	48.5% / 45.8%	6.1% / 6.3%	0.0% / 2.2%	6.3 / 6.8	19.2% / 53.8%	26.9% / 23.1%	3.9 / 3.8	59 / 74	35.6% / 48.1%	35.6% / 48.6%	39.5% / 51.8%	5.3 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.4%	44.1% / 35.1%	20.4 / 25.4
14	@JAC	24 – 30 L	-6.2	36.4% / 51.9%	6.1% / 0.0%	9.7% / 0.0%	7.9 / 9.9	45.8% / 34.9%	45.8% / 16.3%	5.9 / 3.7	57 / 70	44.7% / 51.0%	40.4% / 41.4%	77.8% / 47.4%	7.0 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.4%	42.1% / 61.4%	30.0 / 30.6
15	LA	7 – 42 L	-24.8	21.6% / 48.0%	18.9% / 8.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	1.9 / 4.3	58.8% / 46.5%	29.4% / 18.6%	4.6 / 5.7	54 / 68	32.5% / 51.0%	33.3% / 47.1%	81.9% / 44.0%	2.8 / 5.2	3.7% / 0.0%	31.5% / 63.2%	23.5 / 47.2
16	@DAL	21 – 12 W	1.5	37.5% / 42.1%	12.5% / 10.5%	0.0% / 5.9%	2.5 / 4.1	29.4% / 76.7%	35.3% / 3.3%	2.3 / 4.3	58 / 68	37.5% / 59.3%	32.8% / 57.4%	42.4% / 16.3%	2.4 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.5%	58.6% / 44.1%	27.0 / 29.1
17	ARI	24 – 26 L	-5.6	40.6% / 37.1%	9.4% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.1 / 4.1	40.9% / 55.9%	36.4% / 14.7%	4.6 / 3.4	54 / 69	48.8% / 52.8%	40.7% / 46.4%	64.2% / 13.8%	5.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.7% / 49.3%	27.7 / 29.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LAC	24 – 21 W	6.6	50.0% / 47.1%	12.5% / 2.9%	3.6% / 3.0%	5.7 / 5.4	40.5% / 27.3%	18.9% / 31.8%	3.8 / 2.9	69 / 56	44.2% / 42.9%	44.9% / 39.3%	47.8% / 27.7%	4.7 / 4.4	1.4% / 0.0%	53.6% / 39.3%	31.8 / 31.6
2	DAL	42 – 17 W	11.9	64.7% / 42.3%	5.9% / 3.8%	3.1% / 4.0%	5.9 / 4.4	52.5% / 28.6%	17.5% / 42.9%	4.5 / 2.9	74 / 66	59.6% / 44.7%	58.1% / 39.4%	30.7% / 14.6%	5.1 / 4.1	1.4% / 0.0%	54.1% / 21.2%	26.9 / 37.6
3	@BUF	16 – 26 L	-1.6	37.2% / 50.0%	7.0% / 13.3%	5.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.6	39.1% / 27.0%	26.1% / 27.0%	4.8 / 2.1	66 / 67	38.0% / 42.2%	37.9% / 37.3%	59.3% / 44.4%	5.5 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	34.8% / 55.2%	23.7 / 39.8
4	OAK	16 – 10 W	6.7	33.3% / 36.8%	13.3% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	5.2 / 6.1	31.4% / 33.3%	22.9% / 46.7%	4.2 / 1.6	65 / 53	36.4% / 44.7%	32.3% / 35.8%	39.5% / 52.8%	4.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	53.8% / 28.3%	28.8 / 24.7
6	NYG	10 – 23 L	-10.4	35.1% / 40.9%	7.0% / 13.6%	3.8% / 0.0%	6.4 / 5.4	44.4% / 18.8%	11.1% / 40.6%	2.6 / 4.6	75 / 54	40.0% / 27.5%	37.3% / 27.8%	47.0% / 53.4%	5.5 / 4.9	1.3% / 0.0%	24.0% / 59.3%	27.0 / 31.2
7	@LAC	0 – 21 L	-11.1	35.0% / 34.5%	12.5% / 10.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.6 / 5.6	21.1% / 19.2%	21.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 3.1	59 / 55	32.6% / 28.6%	30.5% / 27.3%	13.5% / 44.6%	4.3 / 4.4	3.4% / 0.0%	32.2% / 47.3%	23.2 / 29.8
8	@KC	19 – 29 L	-11.9	41.0% / 36.4%	7.7% / 3.0%	8.3% / 3.1%	4.8 / 6.0	61.3% / 25.9%	12.9% / 37.0%	5.7 / 3.0	70 / 60	53.6% / 37.0%	50.0% / 31.7%	39.0% / 52.0%	5.2 / 4.6	2.9% / 1.7%	44.3% / 45.0%	23.9 / 40.0
9	@PHI	23 – 51 L	-19.2	36.6% / 50.0%	7.3% / 6.7%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.7 / 7.4	36.8% / 47.4%	31.6% / 26.3%	1.8 / 5.2	60 / 68	39.1% / 53.1%	36.7% / 48.5%	27.4% / 52.9%	3.8 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.5%	31.7% / 55.9%	26.1 / 37.7
10	NE	16 – 41 L	-14.7	39.4% / 65.8%	0.0% / 2.6%	3.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.8	44.8% / 55.2%	13.8% / 13.8%	4.1 / 3.4	62 / 67	40.0% / 67.9%	41.9% / 61.2%	46.2% / 32.1%	5.5 / 5.9	1.6% / 0.0%	46.8% / 43.3%	23.7 / 37.9
11	CIN	17 – 20 L	-4.4	42.2% / 37.0%	6.7% / 7.4%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.1 / 5.2	50.0% / 32.1%	23.5% / 35.7%	3.3 / 1.8	79 / 55	41.1% / 33.3%	45.6% / 34.5%	15.8% / 30.2%	4.3 / 3.5	1.3% / 0.0%	43.0% / 50.9%	31.5 / 33.2
12	@OAK	14 – 21 L	-9.5	30.0% / 50.0%	12.5% / 7.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.0 / 9.4	17.6% / 40.0%	29.4% / 22.5%	3.5 / 2.7	57 / 66	21.4% / 50.0%	26.3% / 43.9%	42.0% / 50.7%	3.8 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.5%	29.8% / 60.6%	21.7 / 32.7
13	@MIA	9 – 35 L	-12.2	29.5% / 41.2%	6.8% / 5.9%	7.3% / 6.3%	3.8 / 6.5	34.8% / 43.3%	26.1% / 23.3%	4.5 / 4.8	67 / 64	37.7% / 46.9%	31.3% / 42.2%	60.7% / 56.1%	4.0 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	34.3% / 46.9%	17.9 / 40.2
14	NYJ	23 – 0 W	13.5	39.4% / 24.0%	6.1% / 16.0%	0.0% / 4.8%	5.7 / 1.6	25.0% / 33.3%	36.1% / 33.3%	2.4 / 2.5	69 / 49	28.6% / 33.3%	31.9% / 28.6%	26.3% / 11.9%	4.0 / 2.1	0.0% / 2.0%	52.2% / 49.0%	40.5 / 21.2
15	@IND	25 – 13 W	-0.8	48.3% / 45.2%	10.3% / 3.2%	3.8% / 0.0%	8.6 / 5.1	40.8% / 34.8%	18.4% / 17.4%	4.4 / 3.1	78 / 54	46.4% / 42.1%	43.6% / 40.7%	56.4% / 18.3%	5.9 / 4.2	0.0% / 0.0%	62.8% / 42.6%	27.4 / 25.8
16	@WAS	11 – 27 L	-6.1	24.4% / 51.4%	9.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 2.7%	4.2 / 8.1	58.6% / 29.0%	13.8% / 25.8%	5.5 / 2.9	70 / 68	41.2% / 45.1%	38.6% / 41.2%	38.8% / 52.1%	4.7 / 5.7	2.9% / 1.5%	41.4% / 45.6%	28.5 / 32.6
17	KC	24 – 27 L	-5.9	52.8% / 50.0%	13.9% / 5.3%	6.5% / 2.8%	6.3 / 7.1	65.5% / 35.7%	24.1% / 25.0%	3.8 / 4.0	65 / 66	62.7% / 46.2%	58.5% / 43.9%	38.7% / 31.8%	5.2 / 5.8	1.5% / 1.5%	44.6% / 42.4%	25.9 / 23.7

Seattle Seahawks @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Sep 9

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis