Game Analysis
Lean – Seattle (+3.5) over CHICAGO
Khalil Mack was incredible in his Bears debut with a pick 6, a forced fumble, and 6 pressures in just 32 snaps. Chicago took a 20-0 lead before Aaron Rogers engineered an all-time 4th quarter comeback. The Bears were unlucky to score a touchdown in only one of their four trips to the redzone and would’ve likely won the game if they were able to find the end zone just one more time. Chicago graded as our best rushing offense of the week and I expect them to continue finding success on the ground against a Seattle defense that is now without K.J. Wright and allowed 4.6 yards per rush to the Broncos. Wright is worth nearly a half point per game by our metrics, but he wasn’t even Seattle’s most costly week 1 injury.
Doug Baldwin (doubtful) has led the Seahawks in yards per route run for four straight seasons and he is worth 0.7 points per game. Seattle probably won’t be able to turn to the ground game after the loss to their star receiver because they ranked as our worst rushing offense last week after finishing 28th a season ago. The lone bright spot for the Seahawks was rookie punter Michael Dickson, who won the Ray Guy award in 2017 for the best collegiate punter and famously won the Texas Bowl MVP. Dickson averaged 57.5 net yards per punt, which is the second-best single-game mark in NFL history, and pinned the Broncos deep for an average starting field position at the 14.5-yard line. I don’t expect Dickson to be quite that good moving forward without the help of high altitude, but it’s safe to say Seattle will probably be the beneficiary of some hidden yards this season. I make this game Bears by 3.6 points after accounting for Seattle’s injuries, so the line is pretty fair. However, Seattle applies to an 84-33-2 ATS early season road bounce-back situation while Chicago applies to a 7-37 ATS Monday night home team angle. I’ll lean with the Seahawks at +3 points or more.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Seahawks
- Bears
Pass
- Pass Plays 39.0 40.0
- Succ Pass Plays 35.9% 57.5%
- Sack Rate 15.4% 2.5%
- Int Rate 6.1% 7.7%
- Deep Pass Rate 24.2% 25.6%
- Big Pass Yards 66.5% 59.6%
- NYPP 6.2 8.1
Rush
- Rush Plays 16.0 32.0
- RB YPR 4.2 4.6
- Stuff Rate 25.0% 21.9%
- Succ Rush Plays 18.8% 50.0%
- Big Rush Yards 53.1% 39.0%
- Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.6
Game
- All Snaps 55.0 72.0
- Early Down Succ 34.9% 58.3%
- Succ Rate 30.9% 54.2%
- Big Yards Rate 63.7% 53.2%
- Yards Per Play 5.6 6.5
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 0.0%
- Time Per Play (sec) 27.3 29.2
- Run Ratio 29.1% 44.4%
- Starting Field Pos 27.4 26.6
- Game Control -1.9 1.9
- Points 24.0 27.0