Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – ATLANTA (+7 -115) over Seattle

• Atlanta’s offense has a 49.2% success rate over the last two weeks (4th) with Kirk Cousins under center and without Drake London, who has a 57% success rate compared to backup WR David Sills with a 44% success rate. London is worth a point to the Falcons’ offense, but Cousins has shown he can move the ball without London.
• Seattle’s defense will be relatively worse in this game because the Seahawks have an 84% zone-coverage rate (6th-highest). Zone defenses are vulnerable to Falcons’ offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s layered route combinations. Atlanta’s offense leads the NFL with 48% more yards per attempt versus zone-coverage compared to man-coverage.
• The Falcons will need to invite the run because it does not look optimistic for them in pass defense. Sam Darnold is averaging 26% more yppp versus cover 1 compared to other coverages (4th), and Atlanta’s defense has the 4th-highest cover 1 rate.
• Seattle is certainly among the best teams in the NFL but road favorites of 3 points or more with an average scoring margin of more than 10 points and coming off a win of more than 10 points the previous week are just 108-168-5 ATS (from week 3 on). And the Seahawks apply to a 17-60-3 ATS subset of a 135-216-20 ATS situation.
• Our model favors Seattle by just 6.4 points, with a predicted total of 43.8 points, and the situation favors the home dog  in this game.

Atlanta is a Strong Opinion at +6.5 points or more.