Game Analysis

 1-Star Best Bet – *ARIZONA (+1.5) over Seattle

1-Star Best Bet – 6-point Teaser (-120) – Arizona (+7.5) with Kansas City (+8.5), both at +7.5 or more

• The Cardinals have only a 9.4% blown block rate (3rd), and their offensive line is well-equipped to stand up to Seattle’s pass rush, with a 39% pressure rate (12th). Additionally, Arizona’s offense is trending towards getting back LT Paris Johnson, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.
• Kyler Murray ranks 6th relatively against zone coverage compared to man coverage, after ranking 4th last season. He has a favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense with an 83% zone coverage rate (10th).
• Cardinals TE Trey McBride is averaging 1.80 yards per route run (5th), and he will find holes in the zone coverage as Seattle’s defense is surrendering 0.47 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (28th).
• The Seahawks defense is surrendering a 57% receiving success rate to opposing RBs (26th), and the Cardinals like to use the screen game, targeting running backs on 24% of passes (7th-most).
• Cardinals TE Trey McBride is averaging 1.80 yards per route run (5th), and he has a favorable matchup as Seattle’s defense is surrendering 0.47 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (28th).
• The Seahawks are one of four offenses with more rushes than passes this year, but the ground game will be contained as the Cardinals are allowing -0.19 EPA/rush (6th).
• Sam Darnold’s average completion traveled 10.3 yards in the air last week, but the downfield passing game won’t be there on Thursday night as Arizona’s defense is conceding a 5.2% explosive pass rate (7th).
• The Cardinals are without two starters in the secondary, which isn’t amplified in this matchup because Seattle’s offense is so condensed. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with a 40% target share, and Arizona’s defense can put starting CB Max Melton on Smith-Njigba.
• Cardinals’ backup cornerback Kei’Trel Clark has not been much worse at preventing separation in coverage than starter Will Johnson. Clark has a 62% lockdown percentage compared to Johnson’s 63%.
• Arizona interior defender Calais Campbell averaged a 0.70-second get-off time versus San Francisco, the fastest by any defensive tackle in 2025. Campbell ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc in this game as Seattle’s interior is at fault for 58% of the pressures (31st).
• Our model favors the Seahawks by just 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 43.0 points, and Seattle applies to a 53-124-4 ATS situation based on last week’s easy 44-13 win.

Arizona is a 1-Star Best Bet as an underdog or pick.