San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Analysis
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Lean – TAMPA BAY (-3) over San Francisco
- Kyle Shanahan dialed up a +5.3% pass rate over expected last week despite missing his starting quarterback, plus his top three receivers, and he’s going to have to air it out again with Mac Jones as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.28 EPA/rush.
- Jones was particularly effective on passes under 10 air yards against the Rams, finishing 28 of 37 for 258 yards, the 2nd-most yards in a game on short passes this year. The Buccaneers are surrendering a league-high 20% first-down rate on short passes this season and will likely struggle against Jones’ point guard-style approach.
- Christian McCaffrey has 16 more targets than the 2nd-highest running back this season, and he has a favorable matchup as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 0.33 EPA/target to opposing running backs (28th).
- Moving parts on Baker Mayfield’s offensive line have caused communication errors, resulting in the Buccaneers’ yards per attempt against the blitz being significantly worse. However, the 49ers have a league-high 80% standard pass rush rate, and Mayfield is averaging 30% more yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (3rd).
- San Francisco’s pressure rate has dropped 14 points with edge rusher Nick Bosa off the field, and this week they’ll also be without Yetur Gross-Matos, whose 9 pressures lead the 49ers’ interior defenders.
- Mayfield should have time in the pocket to pick apart this soft zone. San Francisco’s defense leads the NFL in Cover 4 rate, and Mayfield has 204 yards on 14 dropbacks versus Cover 4 this season.
- The only concern for Tampa Bay’s offense is that it doesn’t look like they’ll have back WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving, both starters on the right side of the offensive line, and now they could be without WR Chris Godwin too.
- Our model favors the Buccaneers by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points, and the Niners apply to a negative 51-130-5 road letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over a division rival (Rams).