Game Analysis
TAMPA BAY (pick) vs San Francisco
Jimmy Garoppolo’s career expected points added per play ranks among the league greats but his yards per pass play is on par with backup Nick Mullens. San Francisco’s offense has a wide range of outcomes due to the uncertainty in how much weight to put on Kyle Shannahan’s play calling and how much Garoppolo will be an upgrade this season. The 27-year-old quarterback making his 11th career start will by flanked by solid tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. However, the Niners offensive line is weak on the interior and Buccaneers’ new signing Ndamukong Suh will be eager to exploit that weakness. Tampa Bay’s defense doesn’t look like they have an answer for George Kittle, who is coming off a season where he gained 2.82 yards per route run to lead all tight ends. The Buccaneers are lacking talent on defense but I believe Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the league and they might surprise some people.
The 49ers defense should also improve after forcing just 2 interceptions and 6 total takeaways in 2018. Both of those are the fewest amount of any team since 2000 and the Niners are in line for some positive regression as defensive turnovers are mostly random year-to-year. Niners’ veteran DB Richard Sherman should battle with Bucs’ standout receiver Mike Evans, who gained 2.39 yards per route run last year (7th). Jason Verrett made the Pro Bowl in 2015 and is supposed to line up as the other cornerback after missing most of the last three seasons, but he may be injured again. That gives WR Chris Godwin a good opportunity for an expanded role after finishing his second season ranked in the top 20 in yards per route run. San Francisco is also banged-up on the defensive line with new additions Dee Ford and Nick Bosa nursing injuries along with DeForest Buckner. Jameis Winston should have time in the pocket to find his receivers and TE OJ Howard, who gained 2.24 yards per route run in 2018 (3rd among tight ends). This season is Winston’s last shot to prove he can be a starting quarterback in this league and I have confidence he can be effective under new coach Bruce Arians.
San Francisco’s offense is high variance and their defense could be downgraded by as many as 2.5 points depending on who’s in uniform on opening day. Our model favors the Niners by 1.8 points with a predicted total of 46.9 but I’m going to pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.3
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
45.6%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
3.6%
0.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.6%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.0%
41.6%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.4
27.8
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
23.6%
18.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.6%
45.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.6%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.7
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
45.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.8%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.8
-
Run Ratio
42.5%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
30.5
-
Game Control
-2.8
2.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.6
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.1%
51.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
4.0%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.4%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.0%
38.2%
-
NYPP
7.9
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.3
26.6
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
24.7%
25.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
50.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.7%
58.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
65.9
62.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.9%
54.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.2%
50.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.7%
45.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
29.0
-
Run Ratio
37.2%
42.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
28.9
-
Game Control
-2.9
2.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-7.6 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
7.7% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
40.6% |
32.0% /
21.9% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
71 |
41.7% /
43.4% |
41.0% /
42.3% |
60.9% /
24.5% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.0% /
45.1% |
23.1 /
33.3 |
| 2 |
DET |
30 – 27 W |
5.3 |
53.1% /
43.6% |
18.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
46.4% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
6.8 /
5.4 |
60 /
73 |
56.3% /
44.6% |
50.0% /
43.8% |
48.8% /
38.4% |
5.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.7% /
24.7% |
32.3 /
24.8 |
| 3 |
@KC |
27 – 38 L |
-13.8 |
44.1% /
55.0% |
11.8% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.7 |
51.7% /
50.0% |
24.1% /
17.9% |
6.1 /
2.8 |
63 /
68 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
47.6% /
52.9% |
42.9% /
28.4% |
6.4 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
41.2% |
22.8 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
27 – 29 L |
2.8 |
52.6% /
47.5% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
5.4% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
6.1 |
38.1% /
40.7% |
28.6% /
14.8% |
3.6 /
4.7 |
59 /
67 |
48.9% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
44.8% |
46.4% /
47.8% |
6.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
40.3% |
22.5 /
41.3 |
| 5 |
ARI |
18 – 28 L |
-6.1 |
46.6% /
30.8% |
6.9% /
3.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
34.8% |
29.4% /
26.1% |
4.3 /
2.4 |
92 /
49 |
45.2% /
40.0% |
47.8% /
32.7% |
41.2% /
47.7% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
46.9% |
22.7 /
39.7 |
| 6 |
@GB |
30 – 33 L |
1.4 |
52.0% /
36.7% |
8.0% /
6.1% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
8.3 |
66.7% /
52.4% |
13.3% /
14.3% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
55 /
70 |
67.4% /
44.4% |
60.0% /
41.4% |
54.1% /
55.5% |
7.3 /
7.4 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
30.0% |
25.9 /
32.0 |
| 7 |
LA |
10 – 39 L |
-16.0 |
29.4% /
53.8% |
20.6% /
7.7% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
7.4 |
62.5% /
61.1% |
16.7% /
11.1% |
4.5 /
4.1 |
58 /
62 |
47.8% /
67.4% |
43.1% /
58.1% |
68.9% /
36.6% |
3.9 /
5.5 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
58.1% |
26.7 /
40.8 |
| 8 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
3.1 |
40.6% /
41.9% |
12.5% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
32.3% /
47.6% |
35.5% /
14.3% |
3.5 /
4.2 |
63 /
64 |
36.7% /
44.0% |
36.5% /
43.8% |
46.8% /
21.8% |
4.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.2% /
32.8% |
31.1 /
20.8 |
| 9 |
OAK |
34 – 3 W |
16.4 |
59.1% /
31.3% |
0.0% /
25.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.9 /
4.4 |
31.3% /
39.1% |
34.4% /
21.7% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
54 /
55 |
45.0% /
39.0% |
42.6% /
34.5% |
74.6% /
44.6% |
7.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.3% /
41.8% |
28.9 /
23.6 |
| 10 |
NYG |
23 – 27 L |
1.5 |
41.0% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
5.6 |
44.8% /
34.8% |
17.2% /
30.4% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
68 /
55 |
39.6% /
39.5% |
42.6% /
40.0% |
24.3% /
53.8% |
5.5 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.6% /
41.8% |
25.7 /
34.5 |
| 12 |
@TB |
9 – 27 L |
-8.9 |
44.4% /
56.4% |
11.1% /
2.6% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
7.8 |
50.0% /
35.5% |
25.0% /
25.8% |
6.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
70 |
52.9% /
47.3% |
46.7% /
47.1% |
58.5% /
39.8% |
5.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
44.3% |
20.6 /
22.1 |
| 13 |
@SEA |
16 – 43 L |
-14.5 |
47.1% /
45.0% |
5.9% /
15.0% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
8.2 |
26.1% /
62.1% |
30.4% /
17.2% |
2.9 /
5.8 |
74 /
49 |
40.0% /
59.0% |
40.5% /
55.1% |
50.7% /
74.6% |
6.1 /
6.8 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
31.1% /
59.2% |
24.2 /
32.9 |
| 14 |
DEN |
20 – 14 W |
10.6 |
47.2% /
38.6% |
8.3% /
4.5% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
3.9 |
43.3% /
40.7% |
13.3% /
25.9% |
2.8 /
3.8 |
66 /
71 |
52.0% /
43.8% |
45.5% /
39.4% |
54.0% /
25.9% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
38.0% |
24.3 /
25.4 |
| 15 |
SEA |
26 – 23 W |
2.6 |
53.1% /
44.1% |
9.4% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
6.4 |
34.6% /
37.1% |
19.2% /
20.0% |
3.6 /
4.8 |
58 /
69 |
50.0% /
36.7% |
44.8% /
40.6% |
59.3% /
44.2% |
6.1 /
5.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
44.8% /
50.7% |
20.7 /
25.8 |
| 16 |
CHI |
9 – 14 L |
-0.7 |
43.6% /
65.6% |
2.6% /
9.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
7.3 |
46.7% /
57.1% |
20.0% /
14.3% |
3.1 /
3.2 |
54 /
60 |
43.6% /
65.2% |
44.4% /
61.7% |
41.6% /
21.2% |
5.2 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
27.8% /
46.7% |
29.7 /
24.2 |
| 17 |
@LA |
32 – 48 L |
-20.5 |
50.0% /
51.7% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.7 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
13.6% /
14.3% |
5.8 /
3.7 |
58 /
71 |
53.3% /
49.1% |
48.3% /
50.7% |
55.5% /
41.1% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
59.2% |
25.5 /
40.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
48 – 40 W |
7.4 |
64.3% /
73.9% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
14.9 /
9.4 |
47.1% /
69.2% |
20.6% /
23.1% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
62 /
59 |
56.5% /
77.6% |
54.8% /
72.9% |
63.1% /
36.4% |
8.5 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
54.8% /
22.0% |
26.4 /
25.9 |
| 2 |
PHI |
27 – 21 W |
11.1 |
60.0% /
41.2% |
5.7% /
5.9% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
11.2 /
6.3 |
26.1% /
54.2% |
43.5% /
20.8% |
1.9 /
3.8 |
58 /
75 |
48.9% /
48.1% |
46.6% /
45.3% |
45.4% /
36.2% |
7.5 /
5.5 |
1.7% /
2.7% |
39.7% /
32.0% |
27.2 /
25.5 |
| 3 |
PIT |
27 – 30 L |
-8.8 |
45.3% /
51.2% |
5.7% /
7.3% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
7.4 /
8.2 |
50.0% /
40.9% |
18.8% /
31.8% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
69 /
63 |
48.3% /
54.0% |
46.4% /
47.6% |
43.7% /
45.8% |
6.6 /
6.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
34.9% |
25.2 /
28.0 |
| 4 |
@CHI |
10 – 48 L |
-27.7 |
45.2% /
66.7% |
9.5% /
3.7% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
12.7 |
38.9% /
54.8% |
22.2% /
29.0% |
3.3 /
4.5 |
60 /
58 |
45.7% /
64.6% |
43.3% /
60.3% |
32.8% /
72.9% |
5.2 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.0% /
53.4% |
23.8 /
27.5 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
29 – 34 L |
-6.4 |
60.5% /
57.1% |
4.7% /
2.4% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
9.0 /
8.3 |
55.0% /
40.9% |
25.0% /
36.4% |
6.1 /
3.2 |
63 /
64 |
59.3% /
49.0% |
58.7% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
40.8% |
8.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
34.4% |
28.6 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
CLE |
26 – 23 W |
6.5 |
51.8% /
38.5% |
7.1% /
12.8% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
4.8 |
43.8% /
39.1% |
31.3% /
30.4% |
3.6 /
5.2 |
88 /
62 |
49.3% /
45.7% |
48.9% /
38.7% |
35.5% /
41.0% |
5.2 /
4.9 |
2.3% /
1.6% |
36.4% /
37.1% |
21.3 /
37.6 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
34 – 37 L |
-10.5 |
41.1% /
47.2% |
10.7% /
5.6% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
7.3 |
51.9% /
44.4% |
11.1% /
29.6% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
83 /
63 |
39.7% /
50.0% |
44.6% /
46.0% |
49.0% /
54.7% |
6.9 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.5% /
42.9% |
24.5 /
29.5 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
28 – 42 L |
-14.2 |
47.7% /
55.6% |
6.8% /
7.4% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.4 |
23.8% /
53.1% |
23.8% /
12.5% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
65 /
59 |
39.2% /
62.2% |
40.0% /
54.2% |
49.5% /
56.5% |
4.6 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
54.2% |
24.6 /
34.8 |
| 10 |
WAS |
3 – 16 L |
-4.7 |
62.8% /
40.0% |
4.7% /
10.0% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
5.7 |
45.8% /
56.0% |
25.0% /
32.0% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
67 /
55 |
56.1% /
50.0% |
56.7% /
47.3% |
36.5% /
39.9% |
7.5 /
5.2 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
35.8% /
45.5% |
19.0 /
29.7 |
| 11 |
@NYG |
35 – 38 L |
-10.5 |
55.3% /
54.5% |
2.6% /
18.2% |
10.8% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
8.9 |
56.7% /
61.3% |
20.0% /
9.7% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
68 /
53 |
54.4% /
62.8% |
55.9% /
58.5% |
55.5% /
59.6% |
7.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.1% /
58.5% |
24.6 /
28.5 |
| 12 |
SF |
27 – 9 W |
8.9 |
56.4% /
44.4% |
2.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
7.8 /
5.4 |
35.5% /
50.0% |
25.8% /
25.0% |
3.5 /
6.2 |
70 /
60 |
47.3% /
52.9% |
47.1% /
46.7% |
39.8% /
58.5% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
40.0% |
22.1 /
20.6 |
| 13 |
CAR |
24 – 17 W |
6.2 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
11.8% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
9.5% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
36.0% /
57.9% |
40.0% /
15.8% |
3.8 /
8.8 |
59 /
65 |
43.5% /
54.5% |
44.1% /
50.8% |
41.6% /
54.3% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
29.2% |
35.2 /
21.3 |
| 14 |
NO |
14 – 28 L |
3.3 |
38.1% /
59.4% |
9.5% /
3.1% |
2.6% /
3.2% |
4.1 /
6.2 |
43.5% /
43.3% |
26.1% /
30.0% |
4.6 /
3.3 |
65 /
62 |
39.2% /
53.2% |
40.0% /
51.6% |
36.2% /
30.9% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
35.4% /
48.4% |
29.5 /
34.8 |
| 15 |
@BAL |
12 – 20 L |
-2.3 |
26.9% /
36.0% |
3.8% /
8.0% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.1 |
57.1% /
57.1% |
9.5% /
12.2% |
4.0 /
4.9 |
47 /
74 |
45.7% /
49.1% |
40.4% /
50.0% |
59.3% /
40.0% |
5.1 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
44.7% /
66.2% |
34.8 /
32.3 |
| 16 |
@DAL |
20 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
56.9% /
50.0% |
5.9% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.8 |
33.3% /
33.3% |
33.3% /
29.2% |
2.6 /
3.3 |
75 /
50 |
53.3% /
46.2% |
49.3% /
42.0% |
27.9% /
35.3% |
5.1 /
4.6 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
48.0% |
26.5 /
37.3 |
| 17 |
ATL |
32 – 34 L |
3.5 |
55.6% /
54.3% |
2.8% /
2.2% |
2.9% /
2.2% |
9.5 /
8.3 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
20.0% /
33.3% |
4.6 /
3.6 |
56 /
76 |
56.5% /
54.1% |
53.6% /
51.3% |
34.4% /
29.7% |
7.7 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.7% /
39.5% |
28.5 /
26.8 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers