Game Analysis

Lean – Over (44.5) – SEATTLE (-7) vs San Francisco

Strong Opinion – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at 96.5 or less

Lean over 44.5 or less if Darnold starts and Lean over 43.5 or less if Lock starts for Seattle.

• We bet 2-Star Under 49.5 when Seattle beat the Niners 13-3 in the regular-season finale, but the total is 4.5 points lower for this game, and we actually now lean slightly over here. The wind speeds will be lower than they were in week 18, and this game will be played on turf, which is 0.8 points higher scoring compared to grass. The 49ers will not have TE George Kittle on Saturday night, but the loss is cancelled out by San Francisco likely getting back WR Ricky Pearsall and Seattle getting back starting LT Charles Cross.
• If our 2-Star Under 49.5 was a 57% bet in week 18, that would make the true total for a game between these teams 47.
• I can see the reasons the total dropped though. Kyle Shanahan’s offense had significant trouble finding production against Mike Macdonald’s defense in the regular season, with the 49ers averaging only 4.9 yards per play.
• Seattle’s superpower is being able to stop the run with light personnel on the field. The Seahawks allowed a league-low -0.21 EPA/rush despite playing nickel defense on 77% of its snaps (2nd-highest).
• Mike Macdonald built a defense that invites the run on early downs but still dominates with light boxes. San Francisco’s offense is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry when Kittle is off the field this season. I think Kyle Shanahan will correctly identify a pass-heavy approach with Brock Purdy as the 49ers’ best avenue to success in this game.
• In the regular-season finale, the Seahawks threw Shanahan a curveball, calling Cover 1 on 24% of snaps, which was more than double their season average. Purdy averaged just 3.0 yppp against Seattle’s Cover 1 in week 18, but he did not have WR Ricky Pearsall, who is San Francisco’s only receiver to average more than 2 yards per route run against man coverage. Pearsall’s availability is crucial in this matchup, and he will likely be on the field.
• Purdy was at his best targeting in-breaking routes in Philadelphia, completing 12 of 17 for 208 yards despite the Eagles allowing a league-low 39.5% success rate on middle passes in the regular season. The Seahawks conceded a 41.8% success rate on middle passes in the regular season (3rd), and we’ll see if Purdy can repeat the middle magic.
• There were 11 interior defenders to reach 50 pressures this year. Seattle’s Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy were both in that group, and the interior duo should dominate San Francisco’s interior offensive line, which was at fault for 56% of the allowed pressures (31st).
• The 49ers’ defense surrendered a 48.6% rush success rate last week without its top three linebackers. For reference, the Giants were worst in the NFL during the regular season allowing a 47.4% rush success rate.
• San Francisco starting LB Dee Winters should suit up for this game, and he has a 5.7% run stop rate compared to backup Garret Wallow with only a 1.7% run stop rate. This will make the 49ers rush defense more stout this week.
• Getting Winters back on the field will also help out in coverage. The 49ers defense is conceding just a 48% success rate to opposing tight ends (5th), and they will contain tight end AJ Barner, who is averaging 0.44 EPA/target (3rd).
• Seattle’s offense targeted wide receivers on 63.7% of passes (5th-most), and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba gained 3.62 yards per route run (2nd). In theory, Sam Darnold has a favorable matchup as San Francisco’s defense is surrendering a 55% success rate to opposing wide receivers (28th), but it remains to be seen if the Seahawks will trust Darnold or if they’d prefer to take the game out of his hands. Darnold has 19 Turnover Worthy Plays (8th-most).
• Our model makes Seattle a 4.9-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, but the matchups favor the Seahawks and we think that the market line of 7/7.5 is fair all things considered.
• Seattle QB Sam Darnold is listed as questionable and him not playing would obviously change the model predictions a couple of points. I think the fair line with Drew Lock at quarterback would be Seattle by 5.5 points with a true total of 44.5 points (a combination of the model predicted total and market total, which would likely go down to 43.5).