Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 -115) over San Francisco

Strong Opinion – Miles Sanders (Phil) Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) to -125

Strong Opinion – SF-Philly: First Half Higher Scoring than Second Half (-110) to -120

· San Francisco’s defense conceded a league-low 16.4 points per game this year, but the 49ers were vulnerable on rare occasions when they stepped up in class against an elite offense. San Francisco surrendered 9.1 yppl to Kansas City in week 7 and 6.8 yppl to Miami with Tua Tagovailoa in week 13.

· Dallas was averaging 0.12 EPA/play in 30 plays with Tony Pollard in the game last week. Then, the Pro Bowl running back broke his left leg and the Cowboys averaged -0.29 EPA/play without Pollard. For reference: 0.12 EPA/play is just above Buffalo’s mark in the regular season.

· We’ll have a battle of an unstoppable force versus an immovable object when Philadelphia’s offense is running the ball. The Eagles were the only rush offense in the NFL with a success rate above 50% and the 49ers defense ranked 2nd in Rush EPA allowed. Regardless, I do believe Jalen Hurt will be able to throw the ball on San Francisco’s defense.

· The 49ers depend on getting pressure up front which usually works as edge defender Nick Bosa led the NFL in pass rushing efficiency. However, Bosa will be shut down on Sunday. Philadelphia RT Lane Johnson ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency this year and did not concede a pressure last week.

· San Francisco CB Deommodore Lenoir had an interception against Dallas, but he also surrendered a 46-yard reception and he’s clearly the 49ers cornerback you want to target. Lenoir ranked 63rd in coverage grade by PFF out of 67 qualifiers while CB Charvarius Ward ranked 8th this season.

· Eagles’ wide receiver AJ Brown added 20.7 expected points when targeted on go routes this season which rated as the 5th-most EPA of a WR on a single route and WR DeVonta Smith averaged 0.44 EPA on all targets (9th). The duo combined for 62% of Philadelphia receiving yards this year.

· I believe it is more likely 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans will use the bigger bodied Ward on Brown leaving Smith lined up across Lenior, but it could go the other direction since Ward is more comfortable lined up on the right side of the offense. Either way, Hurts will want to find Lenior pre-snap and operate to his side of the field.

· The Eagles do not have a lopsided cornerback problem with James Bradberry ranking 7th in coverage grade by PFF and Darius Slay ranking 12th. I do not expect Brock Purdy to throw outside the numbers on Sunday.

· Philadelphia nickelback Avonte Maddox returned to his first practice since week 16 and he might be able to suit up for this game. Maddox allowed 1.12 yards per cover snap this year while all other Eagles nickelbacks surrendered 1.62 yards per slot cover snap.

· In-breaking routes accounted for 83% of Purdy’s passing yards last week. Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will have his cornerbacks turning to inside leverage to contain WR Brandon Aiyuk and WR Deebo Samuel, who leads the NFL averaging 8.9 yards after catch, which is 2.0 yards above Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle in 2nd.

· Christian McCaffrey led all running backs this season gaining 1.83 yards per route run but Eagles linebacker TJ Edwards ranked 7th in coverage grade by PFF and Philadelphia’s defense conceded just 4.8 yards per target to running backs (5th).

· Eagles LB Kyzir White is one of the weakest starters on defense and will struggle versus TE George Kittle, who averaged 0.46 EPA/target this season (2nd) and had five receptions for 95 yards last week.

· Philadelphia’s defense had 70 sacks this season, which was the 3rd-most in NFL history.

· Rotation was critical for Philadelphia with seven defensive linemen having 200 pass rushing snaps this year. The Eagles come at you from both directions with a balanced 52% of pressures on the right side and 48% from the left this season. Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox both rank top 20 in pressures from the interior while Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat both rank top 20 in sacks from the edge. Reddick and Sweat combined for 3.0 sacks last week against the Giants.

· Defensive lines are critical in the postseason with teams averaging 3+ sacks during the regular season going 45-32-1 ATS in the playoffs (38-20-1 ATS if not favored by 7 points or more).

· San Francisco’s offensive line ranked 5th in pass blocking efficiency this year, but the 49ers allowed a 49% pressure rate last week to the Cowboys. Purdy had a 31% dropback pressure rate coming into the game but we saw San Francisco’s offense struggle against an elite pass last week (Dallas averaged 3.1 sacks per game in 2022 (4th)).

· Kyle Shanahan may attempt to take some pressure off Purdy by running the ball as the 49ers ranked 5th in Rush EPA this year excluding turnovers.

· Philadelphia’s defense allowed a league-high 48% rush success rate through the first 10 weeks of 2022. Then, the Eagles signed two interior defenders, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. Philadelphia’s defense conceded just a 38% rush success rate the final eight games of the season (10th) and they will likely slow down San Francisco’s ground game a bit.

· There were seven defenses to allow less than 20 points per game in the regular season and Purdy did not go against any of them until Dallas last week. The Cowboys were the first defense to hold Purdy under 20 points and the 49ers averaged just 5.0 yppl. The Eagles conceded only 19.5 points per game this year (6th) and I expect the Cinderella story to end for the rookie quarterback in this game.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 4.5 points with a predicted total of 48.1 points.

Philadelphia is a Strong Opinion at -2.5 -120 or better.