Game Analysis

San Francisco (-7.5) vs LA RAMS

· The 49ers and Rams finished 5th and 6th respectively in week 1 net yards per play, but now we’re seeing Los Angeles as an 8-point home underdog in this matchup.

· Matthew Stafford averaged an impressive 8.8 yppp without Cooper Kupp in Seattle while throwing for 11.3 air yards per attempt (3rd). However, it’s going to get a lot harder for the Rams this week and I agree their team total should be below 20.

· Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua’s 15 targets were the most in an NFL debut dating back to 2016, but the rookie has a tough matchup on Sunday. San Francisco CB Charvarius Ward ranked 8th in PFF coverage grade in 2022 and he will limit Nacua in this game.

· The 49ers lost edge defenders Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam, who ranked 2nd and 3rd on the team in pressures last year. Nevertheless, Drake Jackson stepped into the starting role and ranked 4th in pass-rushing efficiency last week. However, I expect Jackson will be contained across from the Rams’ best offensive lineman RT Rob Havenstein.

· Los Angeles left tackle Alaric Jackson has only earned 344 pass-blocking snaps since entering the league in 2021 and he will be exposed by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa.

· Stafford will also face plenty of pressure up the middle as San Francisco interior defenders Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave combined for 8 pressures last week.

· Aaron Donald is also going to be a menace on the interior in this matchup as 49ers RG Spencer Burford was shaky in week 1, surrendering 4 pressures.

· Brock Purdy will look to continue his connection with WR Brandon Aijuk when he does have time in the pocket. Aiyuk leads the NFL after one week averaging 2.2 expected points added per target and he will be lined up across from Los Angeles CB Derion Kendrick, who ranked 130th out of 135 qualifiers last season in coverage grade by PFF.

· Our model favors San Francisco by only 5.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.9 points, but the matchups significantly favor the Niners.