San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: Best Bets on SF and Under were released to subscribers early in the week and is now out of Best Bet range. Still lean with SF and Under but no longer plays.

1-Star Best Bet – *San Francisco (+7.5) over LA RAMS

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (46.5)

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp combined for 275 receiving yards last week in the win over Tampa Bay but the Rams WRs will likely be contained on Sunday across from San Francisco’s cornerbacks. Jason Verrett is conceding only 0.64 yards per cover snap (4th) and looks to be back to the level he was at during his Pro Bowl season in 2015. Richard Sherman will play this week in just his second game all year. Sherman allowed a league-low 0.44 yards per cover snap in 2019 and the 49ers CBs have the potential to be elite if he can maintain anywhere close to that level opposite Verrett. The Rams are playing without LT Andrew Whitworth, who leads all tackles in pass blocking efficiency, and his absence will hurt them in this matchup, as edge defender Kerry Hyder ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency. Jared Goff has been terrible when pressured once again this year, averaging just 2.9 yards per pass play under pressure and he should face more than his normal percentage of pressures in this game.

Kyle Shanahan is one of the few coaches in the league that can scheme Aaron Donald out of the game. Donald was held to just 3 pressures (half his season average) when these teams met in week 6. San Francisco’s offense won’t have Jimmy Garoppolo or George Kittle again but those two have each only played in six of the ten games and the 49ers are still above the league-average at 5.7 yards per play. Our metrics have San Francisco’s offense ranked 23rd without the starting QB and All-Pro tight end. The Rams, meanwhile, are conceding a league-low 4.7 yppl and have the league’s top pass defense by our numbers.

Both teams should have trouble throwing the football and I expect a close, low-scoring game. Our metrics favor the Rams by just 2.2 points, with a predicted total of only 42.3 points. San Francisco is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 or more (Strong Opinion down to +6) and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 46 or higher (Strong Opinion at 45.5 points).

Team Stats
Game Log

49ers
Rams

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.4 33.2
Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 45.4%
Sack Rate 6.4% 5.7%
Int Rate 3.2% 2.8%
Deep Pass Rate 13.6% 14.8%
Big Pass Yards 34.3% 41.5%
NYPP 6.9 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 26.6 27.1
RB YPR 4.3 3.4
Stuff Rate 24.7% 23.9%
Succ Rush Plays 47.3% 47.4%
Big Rush Yards 36.1% 42.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.0

Game

All Snaps 64.0 60.3
Early Down Succ 50.5% 48.8%
Succ Rate 48.1% 46.0%
Big Yards Rate 37.7% 42.6%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.5 28.3
Run Ratio 41.4% 44.6%
Starting Field Pos 27.6 30.0
Game Control 0.8 -0.8

Points 23.8 23.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	20 – 24 L	2.5	41.7% / 35.7%	8.3% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.8 / 5.3	48.0% / 50.0%	20.0% / 16.7%	4.9 / 5.0	61 / 78	52.1% / 41.0%	44.3% / 42.3%	42.9% / 36.4%	6.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	41.0% / 46.2%	32.0 / 24.8
2	@NYJ	31 – 13 W	14.2	53.3% / 39.4%	10.0% / 3.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	5.9 / 5.2	27.6% / 48.3%	48.3% / 27.6%	6.3 / 3.6	59 / 62	38.6% / 48.9%	40.7% / 43.5%	48.7% / 33.2%	6.1 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	49.2% / 46.8%	27.9 / 28.7
3	@NYG	36 – 9 W	9.1	60.5% / 38.2%	5.3% / 5.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	8.6 / 4.9	42.9% / 40.0%	34.3% / 40.0%	2.7 / 4.4	73 / 49	50.8% / 37.8%	52.1% / 38.8%	30.0% / 50.2%	5.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 4.1%	47.9% / 30.6%	35.9 / 24.8
4	PHI	20 – 25 L	-0.5	52.0% / 45.2%	10.0% / 9.7%	4.4% / 3.6%	6.0 / 5.6	40.0% / 42.9%	20.0% / 32.1%	5.8 / 3.3	70 / 59	50.9% / 45.5%	48.6% / 44.1%	36.5% / 51.7%	6.0 / 4.5	1.4% / 0.0%	28.6% / 47.5%	23.3 / 28.0
5	MIA	17 – 43 L	-16.4	30.0% / 60.0%	12.5% / 6.7%	5.7% / 0.0%	3.2 / 11.4	78.9% / 39.4%	15.8% / 36.4%	6.9 / 2.8	59 / 63	53.2% / 53.2%	45.8% / 49.2%	26.3% / 64.2%	4.4 / 6.9	1.7% / 0.0%	32.2% / 52.4%	26.5 / 39.0
6	LA	24 – 16 W	10.5	57.6% / 42.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	8.1 / 5.2	37.8% / 63.2%	18.9% / 26.3%	3.3 / 5.9	70 / 57	50.0% / 54.5%	47.1% / 49.1%	33.1% / 43.1%	5.6 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 33.3%	22.3 / 26.4
7	@NE	33 – 6 W	15.8	65.4% / 44.4%	3.8% / 7.4%	8.0% / 16.0%	10.4 / 5.4	67.6% / 45.5%	16.2% / 9.1%	5.3 / 4.3	63 / 49	68.5% / 48.8%	66.7% / 44.9%	37.9% / 26.1%	7.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	58.7% / 44.9%	29.0 / 27.7
8	@SEA	27 – 37 L	-8.9	52.3% / 53.8%	6.8% / 5.1%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.4	40.9% / 46.4%	13.6% / 25.0%	2.4 / 3.6	66 / 67	48.0% / 50.0%	48.5% / 50.7%	33.9% / 37.1%	5.3 / 5.2	1.5% / 0.0%	33.3% / 41.8%	24.2 / 33.5
9	GB	17 – 34 L	-15.7	41.7% / 53.1%	2.8% / 3.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.8 / 9.2	52.9% / 41.9%	23.5% / 19.4%	3.2 / 3.6	53 / 63	50.0% / 46.9%	45.3% / 47.6%	52.8% / 53.6%	6.4 / 6.4	1.9% / 0.0%	32.1% / 49.2%	27.8 / 29.0
10	@NO	13 – 27 L	-3.0	46.3% / 42.3%	4.9% / 11.5%	5.1% / 0.0%	5.7 / 4.7	36.0% / 56.7%	36.0% / 6.7%	2.0 / 3.8	66 / 56	42.9% / 61.0%	42.4% / 50.0%	34.5% / 30.8%	4.3 / 4.2	3.0% / 3.6%	37.9% / 53.6%	27.2 / 38.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	20 – 17 W	3.4	56.3% / 52.4%	3.1% / 7.1%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.8	57.5% / 59.3%	12.5% / 11.1%	3.8 / 5.0	72 / 69	57.7% / 63.0%	56.9% / 55.1%	40.3% / 30.8%	5.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 39.1%	29.0 / 27.1
2	@PHI	37 – 19 W	9.4	67.9% / 46.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.7%	9.2 / 5.6	59.0% / 73.1%	12.8% / 0.0%	4.9 / 4.7	67 / 69	65.4% / 57.1%	62.7% / 56.5%	52.8% / 17.1%	6.7 / 5.3	1.5% / 1.4%	58.2% / 37.7%	31.6 / 29.1
3	@BUF	32 – 35 L	-8.9	58.8% / 56.8%	5.9% / 10.8%	3.1% / 3.0%	9.1 / 7.4	68.8% / 61.9%	18.8% / 14.3%	5.2 / 4.8	66 / 58	65.5% / 59.6%	63.6% / 58.6%	48.3% / 57.1%	7.2 / 6.5	1.5% / 1.7%	48.5% / 36.2%	27.0 / 32.9
4	NYG	17 – 9 W	4.1	50.0% / 41.5%	5.9% / 12.2%	0.0% / 2.8%	5.4 / 3.9	47.8% / 56.0%	17.4% / 12.0%	2.5 / 5.4	57 / 66	53.7% / 51.0%	49.1% / 47.0%	28.3% / 34.9%	4.2 / 4.5	1.8% / 0.0%	40.4% / 37.9%	23.6 / 31.0
5	@WAS	30 – 10 W	9.8	48.4% / 26.3%	3.2% / 21.1%	3.3% / 0.0%	9.7 / 1.8	40.0% / 42.9%	28.6% / 35.7%	3.7 / 2.7	66 / 52	46.9% / 36.8%	43.9% / 30.8%	59.4% / 0.0%	6.5 / 2.1	0.0% / 0.0%	53.0% / 26.9%	31.0 / 22.6
6	@SF	16 – 24 L	-10.5	42.1% / 57.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.2 / 8.1	63.2% / 37.8%	26.3% / 18.9%	5.9 / 3.3	57 / 70	54.5% / 50.0%	49.1% / 47.1%	43.1% / 33.1%	5.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 52.9%	26.4 / 22.3
7	CHI	24 – 10 W	9.2	52.9% / 40.9%	2.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 5.0%	6.2 / 5.2	44.1% / 29.4%	29.4% / 17.6%	4.7 / 2.9	68 / 61	54.7% / 41.9%	48.5% / 37.7%	41.2% / 32.6%	5.5 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	50.0% / 27.9%	34.4 / 16.3
8	@MIA	17 – 28 L	-9.2	46.0% / 43.5%	3.2% / 4.3%	3.3% / 0.0%	5.4 / 3.9	65.5% / 40.0%	13.8% / 24.0%	4.5 / 2.2	92 / 48	56.2% / 48.6%	52.2% / 41.7%	21.0% / 0.0%	5.1 / 3.0	2.2% / 4.2%	31.5% / 52.1%	28.2 / 34.6
10	SEA	23 – 16 W	5.6	52.5% / 44.2%	7.5% / 14.0%	0.0% / 5.4%	7.1 / 5.1	55.2% / 45.5%	20.7% / 9.1%	3.7 / 5.1	69 / 65	52.9% / 43.1%	53.6% / 44.6%	35.2% / 40.5%	5.6 / 5.1	1.4% / 1.5%	42.0% / 33.8%	29.0 / 28.1
11	@TB	27 – 24 W	2.4	60.8% / 42.9%	0.0% / 2.0%	3.9% / 4.2%	7.4 / 4.3	20.0% / 44.4%	50.0% / 22.2%	1.9 / 2.3	71 / 67	49.1% / 42.3%	49.3% / 43.3%	34.9% / 0.0%	5.8 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	28.2% / 26.9%	29.3 / 32.4

San Francisco 49ers @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Nov 29

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis