San Francisco 49ers @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 21
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 453
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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San Francisco (-6.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

Lean – Over 45

Kyle Shanahan called 44 runs last Monday night in the blowout win over the Rams, but the Jaguars are conceding only 3.9 yards per carry (5th) and I could see Shanahan shifting his approach to more pass heavy this week especially considering top RB Elijah Mitchell suffered a finger fracture in Los Angeles. Jacksonville edge defender Josh Allen has at least five pressures in five straight games, but he will be limited by Pro Bowl LT Trent Williams (11th in pass blocking efficiency) and Jimmy Garoppolo should have time to look downfield on Sunday.

Brandon Linder was conceding just a 3.3% pressure rate before suffering a high-ankle sprain in week 5 and his impending return will provide a boost for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars ground game ranks 4th and should have their way with San Francisco’s rush defense ranked 26th.

Our model favors the 49ers by 5.8 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Jaguars
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.00 34.44
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.8% 41.9%
  • Sack Rate 5.7% 6.5%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 1.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.1% 19.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.0% 45.0%
  • NYPP 7.40 6.06



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.67 27.89
  • RB YPR 4.30 3.90
  • Stuff Rate 25.7% 23.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.6% 47.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.0% 47.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.24 4.43




Game

  • All Snaps 60.67 62.33
  • Early Down Succ 52.3% 47.4%
  • Succ Rate 48.2% 44.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.0% 45.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.96 5.33
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.20 29.24
  • Run Ratio 45.6% 44.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -0.50 0.50
 
  • Points 24.00 23.22
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