Game Analysis
San Francisco (-6.5) vs JACKSONVILLE
Lean – Over 45
Kyle Shanahan called 44 runs last Monday night in the blowout win over the Rams, but the Jaguars are conceding only 3.9 yards per carry (5th) and I could see Shanahan shifting his approach to more pass heavy this week especially considering top RB Elijah Mitchell suffered a finger fracture in Los Angeles. Jacksonville edge defender Josh Allen has at least five pressures in five straight games, but he will be limited by Pro Bowl LT Trent Williams (11th in pass blocking efficiency) and Jimmy Garoppolo should have time to look downfield on Sunday.
Brandon Linder was conceding just a 3.3% pressure rate before suffering a high-ankle sprain in week 5 and his impending return will provide a boost for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars ground game ranks 4th and should have their way with San Francisco’s rush defense ranked 26th.
Our model favors the 49ers by 5.8 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.00
34.44
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.8%
41.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.7%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.1%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.0%
45.0%
-
NYPP
7.40
6.06
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.67
27.89
-
RB YPR
4.30
3.90
-
Stuff Rate
25.7%
23.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.6%
47.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.0%
47.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.24
4.43
Game
-
All Snaps
60.67
62.33
-
Early Down Succ
52.3%
47.4%
-
Succ Rate
48.2%
44.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.0%
45.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.96
5.33
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.20
29.24
-
Run Ratio
45.6%
44.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-0.50
0.50
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.78
36.00
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.3%
49.1%
-
Sack Rate
4.6%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.9%
42.6%
-
NYPP
5.51
7.23
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.44
27.22
-
RB YPR
5.07
3.63
-
Stuff Rate
19.4%
23.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.1%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.2%
29.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.08
3.89
Game
-
All Snaps
62.22
63.22
-
Early Down Succ
53.2%
52.7%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
49.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.4%
39.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.35
5.80
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.30
30.99
-
Run Ratio
37.7%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-5.62
5.62
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
41 – 33 W |
9.15 |
55.6% /
41.7% |
3.7% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
11.52 /
5.23 |
39.3% /
50.0% |
32.1% /
20.8% |
4.68 /
4.83 |
55 /
84 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
47.3% /
44.0% |
57.6% /
49.3% |
8.04 /
5.12 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
50.9% /
28.6% |
31.25 /
28.00 |
| 2 |
@PHI |
17 – 11 W |
2.03 |
56.7% /
38.5% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.30 /
6.81 |
44.7% /
58.6% |
26.3% /
27.6% |
3.08 /
5.21 |
68 /
55 |
50.9% /
53.7% |
50.0% /
49.1% |
23.2% /
52.5% |
4.50 /
5.96 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.9% /
52.7% |
18.67 /
19.44 |
| 3 |
GB |
28 – 30 L |
-6.58 |
45.5% /
47.1% |
9.1% /
2.9% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
5.25 /
7.44 |
52.4% /
52.0% |
28.6% /
8.0% |
3.00 /
4.00 |
65 /
59 |
48.0% /
51.1% |
47.7% /
49.2% |
17.2% /
41.0% |
4.52 /
5.98 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
42.4% |
25.10 /
28.50 |
| 4 |
SEA |
21 – 28 L |
-1.52 |
46.5% /
30.8% |
4.7% /
11.5% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.30 /
4.96 |
62.1% /
46.4% |
10.3% /
28.6% |
4.93 /
3.75 |
72 /
54 |
62.3% /
43.2% |
52.8% /
38.9% |
32.5% /
38.6% |
6.35 /
4.33 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
51.9% |
21.17 /
34.93 |
| 5 |
@ARZ |
10 – 17 L |
-6.53 |
29.0% /
45.5% |
6.5% /
6.1% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
6.00 /
6.36 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
21.4% /
25.9% |
5.43 /
3.78 |
59 /
60 |
45.2% /
54.2% |
39.0% /
48.3% |
45.6% /
39.0% |
5.73 /
5.20 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.5% /
45.0% |
27.67 /
27.60 |
| 7 |
IND |
18 – 30 L |
0.02 |
37.9% /
25.9% |
6.9% /
3.7% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
5.83 /
5.44 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
20.8% /
33.3% |
4.63 /
4.48 |
53 /
60 |
53.7% /
31.8% |
43.4% /
35.0% |
49.3% /
54.0% |
5.28 /
4.92 |
3.8% /
3.3% |
45.3% /
55.0% |
28.36 /
36.46 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
33 – 22 W |
-0.35 |
46.4% /
38.7% |
0.0% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
11.50 /
4.77 |
42.3% /
41.7% |
34.6% /
27.8% |
5.58 /
4.89 |
54 /
67 |
44.2% /
37.5% |
44.4% /
40.3% |
67.7% /
41.9% |
8.65 /
4.84 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.1% /
53.7% |
32.56 /
27.50 |
| 9 |
ARZ |
17 – 31 L |
-12.74 |
57.8% /
62.1% |
11.1% /
6.9% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.62 /
9.45 |
45.5% /
38.5% |
27.3% /
17.9% |
3.55 /
4.18 |
56 /
68 |
64.3% /
51.0% |
55.4% /
48.5% |
29.6% /
54.6% |
6.02 /
6.43 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
19.6% /
57.4% |
27.73 /
25.64 |
| 10 |
LA |
31 – 7 W |
12.03 |
55.0% /
43.2% |
5.0% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
8.95 /
5.14 |
50.0% /
60.0% |
29.5% /
10.0% |
3.55 /
5.20 |
64 /
54 |
50.0% /
53.7% |
51.6% /
46.3% |
32.8% /
36.4% |
5.23 /
5.15 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
68.8% /
18.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HST |
21 – 37 L |
-14.37 |
38.5% /
55.9% |
1.9% /
2.9% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
6.13 /
8.50 |
62.5% /
48.8% |
18.8% /
19.5% |
4.75 /
3.90 |
68 /
75 |
47.3% /
50.9% |
44.1% /
52.0% |
38.7% /
46.6% |
5.81 /
5.99 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.5% /
54.7% |
21.36 /
33.43 |
| 2 |
DEN |
13 – 23 L |
-3.44 |
32.4% /
51.4% |
2.9% /
8.1% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.35 /
8.16 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
18.8% /
33.3% |
4.69 /
3.20 |
50 /
67 |
36.8% /
56.9% |
38.0% /
49.3% |
42.5% /
34.9% |
3.78 /
5.94 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
44.8% |
20.67 /
32.09 |
| 3 |
ARZ |
19 – 31 L |
-3.29 |
51.4% /
61.8% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
5.9% /
2.9% |
5.46 /
9.29 |
65.5% /
56.7% |
17.2% /
23.3% |
5.48 /
3.03 |
66 /
64 |
67.3% /
66.0% |
57.6% /
59.4% |
32.0% /
34.9% |
5.47 /
6.36 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
46.9% |
25.67 /
21.91 |
| 4 |
@CIN |
21 – 24 L |
4.43 |
60.0% /
54.5% |
4.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.08 /
10.36 |
53.3% /
45.5% |
13.3% /
18.2% |
4.63 /
3.55 |
55 /
55 |
60.0% /
51.1% |
56.4% /
50.9% |
47.8% /
49.8% |
6.20 /
7.64 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
40.0% |
27.00 /
17.33 |
| 5 |
TEN |
19 – 37 L |
-9.28 |
54.3% /
40.0% |
5.7% /
12.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
7.31 /
7.36 |
61.3% /
63.9% |
19.4% /
13.9% |
6.39 /
5.11 |
66 /
61 |
65.4% /
57.4% |
57.6% /
54.1% |
41.4% /
45.9% |
6.88 /
6.03 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.0% /
59.0% |
24.73 /
30.78 |
| 6 |
MIA |
23 – 20 W |
-1.94 |
51.2% /
50.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
7.26 /
7.38 |
31.6% /
40.0% |
21.1% /
20.0% |
4.42 /
3.85 |
62 /
68 |
51.1% /
44.9% |
45.2% /
47.1% |
44.2% /
40.6% |
6.39 /
6.34 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
29.4% |
29.73 /
25.91 |
| 8 |
@SEA |
7 – 31 L |
-14.52 |
52.7% /
51.9% |
1.8% /
11.1% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
4.13 /
5.93 |
47.4% /
44.0% |
10.5% /
32.0% |
4.32 /
2.76 |
74 /
52 |
57.1% /
53.8% |
51.4% /
48.1% |
4.4% /
36.0% |
4.18 /
4.40 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.7% /
48.1% |
22.09 /
34.11 |
| 9 |
BUF |
9 – 6 W |
0.59 |
33.3% /
43.1% |
6.7% /
7.8% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.63 /
4.49 |
33.3% /
35.7% |
37.0% /
21.4% |
2.93 /
5.14 |
57 /
65 |
36.6% /
45.7% |
33.3% /
41.5% |
33.5% /
29.5% |
3.82 /
4.63 |
1.8% /
1.5% |
47.4% /
21.5% |
32.90 /
27.67 |
| 10 |
@IND |
17 – 23 L |
-8.74 |
34.2% /
34.3% |
7.9% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.00 /
4.80 |
58.3% /
48.1% |
16.7% /
29.6% |
7.46 /
4.70 |
62 /
62 |
50.0% /
45.7% |
43.5% /
40.3% |
49.0% /
26.4% |
5.34 /
4.76 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
43.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars