Game Analysis

Lean – Over (46.5) – San Francisco (-6) at INDIANAPOLIS

• San Francisco’s missed tackle percentage against the run is 18% during the last three weeks (28th), but the Indianapolis ground game is coming off their second-worst outing of the year, averaging only 3.2 yards per rush against the Seahawks.
• The Colts’ ground game is suffering because Phillip Rivers will not go under center. Indianapolis leads the NFL with an average of 6.5 yppl when their QB is under center, so Rivers’ insistence on shotgun is detrimental to the offense.
• Rivers had a 4.7-yard average depth of target in his first start. For reference, the league low for air yards per attempt is Aaron Rodgers at 5.6.
• I don’t anticipate Rivers throwing the ball downfield more often on Monday night, when he’ll likely be without both starting tackles. RT Braden Smith is out because of a concussion, and LT Bernhard Raimann left the last game because of an elbow injury.
• The Colts are conceding -0.13 EPA/rush (4th) and -0.25 EPA/target to opposing running backs (2nd). Indianapolis will limit RB Christian McCaffrey, who is gaining 1.89 yards per route run (2nd).
• Brock Purdy is averaging 0.27 EPA/play (3rd), and he has a favorable matchup in this game against a banged-up Colts’ defense.
• Indianapolis is allowing 0.05 EPA/dropback more without DT DeForest Buckner on the field.
• Colts’ backup cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Johnathan Edwards are combining to allow 0.30 yards per cover snap more than Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 48.7 points, but San Francisco applies to a negative 93-163-5 ATS road letdown situation while the Colts apply to a 36-5-1 ATS Monday night home dog angle. I used Indy +6 in my spread pool but have no opinion on the side with the line down to 4.5 points.