San Francisco 49ers @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Oct 8
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 461
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -1.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – San Francisco (+1 ½) over INDIANAPOLIS

After last week’s second-half debacle in Seattle, the Colts defense now ranks 31st in my metrics, and Indianapolis and New Orleans are the only two teams to surrender more than 6 yppl to opponents the last two seasons. In other words, the Colts’ defense still sucks. It doesn’t get much better on the other side of the ball for the Colts as they’ve only managed to score 17.8 points per game this season and there’s reason to believe they’ll regress – Indianapolis has been lucky to score touchdowns on 7 of their 10 Redzone opportunities, the second highest rate in the league. I certainly don’t expect an offense of the Colts’ quality to convert at that level in the Redzone moving forward.

San Francisco’s offense has also been poor this season, ranking 31st according to my numbers, but the 49ers defense ranks 13th overall and they’ve been particularly good stopping the run, holding opponents to just 3.3 yards per rush.

Using this year’s games only I get Indy by just ½ a point but while they say there are no moral victories in the NFL, the Niners’ overtime loss to the Cardinals is a good indicator of improvement for this 0-4 team. In fact, winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 37-14-1 ATS in road games after a pointspread win as long as their opponent is not coming off a bye. I’ll lean with San Francisco.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Colts
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.3 37.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 36.0% 48.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.2% 4.4%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.0% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.9% 31.5%
  • NYPP 4.7 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.5 35.0
  • RB YPR 4.8 3.0
  • Stuff Rate 25.2% 24.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 42.0% 41.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 53.5% 32.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.7 3.0




Game

  • All Snaps 63.8 72.8
  • Early Down Succ 42.2% 47.3%
  • Succ Rate 38.9% 45.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.4% 31.7%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 28.5
  • Run Ratio 36.5% 49.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.2 30.4
  • Game Control -5.4 5.4
 
  • Points 16.5 23.5
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