Game Analysis
Lean – San Francisco (+1 ½) over INDIANAPOLIS
After last week’s second-half debacle in Seattle, the Colts defense now ranks 31st in my metrics, and Indianapolis and New Orleans are the only two teams to surrender more than 6 yppl to opponents the last two seasons. In other words, the Colts’ defense still sucks. It doesn’t get much better on the other side of the ball for the Colts as they’ve only managed to score 17.8 points per game this season and there’s reason to believe they’ll regress – Indianapolis has been lucky to score touchdowns on 7 of their 10 Redzone opportunities, the second highest rate in the league. I certainly don’t expect an offense of the Colts’ quality to convert at that level in the Redzone moving forward.
San Francisco’s offense has also been poor this season, ranking 31st according to my numbers, but the 49ers defense ranks 13th overall and they’ve been particularly good stopping the run, holding opponents to just 3.3 yards per rush.
Using this year’s games only I get Indy by just ½ a point but while they say there are no moral victories in the NFL, the Niners’ overtime loss to the Cardinals is a good indicator of improvement for this 0-4 team. In fact, winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 37-14-1 ATS in road games after a pointspread win as long as their opponent is not coming off a bye. I’ll lean with San Francisco.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.3
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.0%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
4.4%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.0%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.9%
31.5%
-
NYPP
4.7
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
35.0
-
RB YPR
4.8
3.0
-
Stuff Rate
25.2%
24.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.0%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.5%
32.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
3.0
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
72.8
-
Early Down Succ
42.2%
47.3%
-
Succ Rate
38.9%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
31.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.7
28.5
-
Run Ratio
36.5%
49.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
30.4
-
Game Control
-5.4
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.3
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
35.1%
48.9%
-
Sack Rate
11.6%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
3.9%
4.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
27.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
52.2%
64.8%
-
NYPP
6.0
8.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
30.0
-
RB YPR
2.7
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
19.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.4%
39.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.6%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.0
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
67.0
-
Early Down Succ
36.4%
43.4%
-
Succ Rate
35.5%
42.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.9%
59.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.4
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
27.4
-
Run Ratio
48.3%
44.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
28.6
-
Game Control
-3.2
3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% /
54.8% |
16.0% /
3.2% |
9.5% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
10.0 |
32.0% /
22.5% |
28.0% /
22.5% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
50 /
71 |
40.5% /
43.5% |
30.0% /
36.6% |
81.4% /
52.7% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
2.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
56.3% |
23.1 /
35.8 |
| 2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% /
40.0% |
9.8% /
10.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
4.6 /
7.7 |
34.5% /
34.6% |
24.1% /
11.5% |
2.6 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
36.5% /
39.6% |
38.6% /
37.9% |
16.5% /
63.6% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
39.4% |
24.5 /
29.6 |
| 3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
11.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
9.0 /
4.9 |
27.0% /
57.1% |
37.8% /
19.0% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
24.4% /
42.9% |
29.7% /
42.0% |
63.7% /
53.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
30.4% |
29.6 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% /
65.5% |
9.4% /
10.3% |
3.4% /
7.7% |
4.3 /
9.8 |
52.0% /
42.4% |
8.0% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
57 /
62 |
44.2% /
47.8% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
30.0% /
67.7% |
4.2 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
28.3 /
20.2 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Indianapolis Colts