Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Over (50) – DALLAS vs San Francisco
Lean – DALLAS (-3)
San Francisco averages a mediocre 25.1 points (13th) but the 49ers are 7th in success rate with Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle on the field this season. We had San Francisco’s offense 7th in our priors, and they’ve played to that level with Jimmy G and Kittle healthy. The 49ers will have success with the great scoring conditions of a domed stadium versus an overvalued Dallas defense.
Niners’ offensive weapon Deebo Samuel is gaining 2.98 yards per route run (2nd) and leads all wide receivers averaging 10.2 yards after the catch. Kyle Shanahan will be able to scheme Samuel with space downfield against Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, who is overrated due to his league-leading 11 interceptions. Diggs loves to gamble and ranks 90th in yards allowed per coverage snap among 91 qualifying cornerbacks.
LB Micah Parsons is the best pass rusher for the Dallas defense with an absurd 22.4% pressure rate. Cowboys DE Randy Gregory ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency and edge defender Demarcus Lawrence has a 15% pressure rate, but the duo missed a combined 15 games this season. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is giving Parsons less reps to rush the quarterback with both Gregory and Lawrence available. Parsons averaged nearly 5 pass rushing snaps more in the five games he suited up when the starting edge rushers were both out. Gregory and Lawrence have been solid this year, but the Dallas defense is better with Parsons rushing the passer, which I expect to happen on only 10-15 snaps on Sunday. Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams allowed 16 pressures across 14 games, and he will shut down Gregory. Cowboys DT Osa Odighizuwa 37 pressures (23rd) but he will be limited by 49ers C Alex Mack, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.
Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead account for 44% of San Francisco’s defensive line pressures and both line up on the right side of the offense more often than not. Dak Prescott should be well protected in this game as RT La’el Collins ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency and RG Zack Martin ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency. Dallas will be without starting WR Michael Gallup (torn ACL) but he averaged 1.37 yards per route run compared to backup Cedrick Wilson’s 1.74 yards per route run.
Our model favors the Cowboys by 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 54.2 points. The over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 50.5 points or less (Strong Opinion Over 51) and I’ll lean with Dallas on the basis of some line value and a 51-11-2 ATS playoff situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.18
34.88
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.8%
43.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
18.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.4%
42.6%
-
NYPP
7.72
5.92
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.29
25.82
-
RB YPR
4.42
3.62
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
25.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.2%
44.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.3%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.33
4.03
Game
-
All Snaps
61.47
60.71
-
Early Down Succ
52.9%
45.9%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.1%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.10
5.11
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.54
29.43
-
Run Ratio
47.7%
42.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.54
29.09
-
Game Control
1.51
-1.51
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.00
38.41
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.5%
39.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
4.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.3%
45.8%
-
NYPP
7.06
6.20
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.82
25.24
-
RB YPR
4.49
4.31
-
Stuff Rate
21.6%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.2%
46.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.7%
44.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.45
4.47
Game
-
All Snaps
67.82
63.65
-
Early Down Succ
52.7%
45.6%
-
Succ Rate
50.1%
42.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.6%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.99
5.51
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.28
28.53
-
Run Ratio
41.0%
39.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.53
27.20
-
Game Control
4.36
-4.36
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
41 – 33 W |
9.15 |
55.6% /
41.7% |
3.7% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
11.52 /
5.23 |
39.3% /
50.0% |
32.1% /
20.8% |
4.68 /
4.83 |
55 /
84 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
47.3% /
44.0% |
57.6% /
49.3% |
8.04 /
5.12 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
50.9% /
28.6% |
31.25 /
28.00 |
| 2 |
@PHI |
17 – 11 W |
2.03 |
56.7% /
38.5% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.30 /
6.81 |
44.7% /
58.6% |
26.3% /
27.6% |
3.08 /
5.21 |
68 /
55 |
50.9% /
53.7% |
50.0% /
49.1% |
23.2% /
52.5% |
4.50 /
5.96 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.9% /
52.7% |
18.67 /
19.44 |
| 3 |
GB |
28 – 30 L |
-6.58 |
45.5% /
47.1% |
9.1% /
2.9% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
5.25 /
7.44 |
52.4% /
52.0% |
28.6% /
8.0% |
3.00 /
4.00 |
65 /
59 |
48.0% /
51.1% |
47.7% /
49.2% |
17.2% /
41.0% |
4.52 /
5.98 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
42.4% |
25.10 /
28.50 |
| 4 |
SEA |
21 – 28 L |
-1.52 |
46.5% /
30.8% |
4.7% /
11.5% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.30 /
4.96 |
62.1% /
46.4% |
10.3% /
28.6% |
4.93 /
3.75 |
72 /
54 |
62.3% /
43.2% |
52.8% /
38.9% |
32.5% /
38.6% |
6.35 /
4.33 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
51.9% |
21.17 /
34.93 |
| 5 |
@ARZ |
10 – 17 L |
-6.53 |
29.0% /
45.5% |
6.5% /
6.1% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
6.00 /
6.36 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
21.4% /
25.9% |
5.43 /
3.78 |
59 /
60 |
45.2% /
54.2% |
39.0% /
48.3% |
45.6% /
39.0% |
5.73 /
5.20 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.5% /
45.0% |
27.67 /
27.60 |
| 7 |
IND |
18 – 30 L |
0.02 |
37.9% /
25.9% |
6.9% /
3.7% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
5.83 /
5.44 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
20.8% /
33.3% |
4.63 /
4.48 |
53 /
60 |
53.7% /
31.8% |
43.4% /
35.0% |
49.3% /
54.0% |
5.28 /
4.92 |
3.8% /
3.3% |
45.3% /
55.0% |
28.36 /
36.46 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
33 – 22 W |
-0.35 |
46.4% /
38.7% |
0.0% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
11.50 /
4.77 |
42.3% /
41.7% |
34.6% /
27.8% |
5.58 /
4.89 |
54 /
67 |
44.2% /
37.5% |
44.4% /
40.3% |
67.7% /
41.9% |
8.65 /
4.84 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.1% /
53.7% |
32.56 /
27.50 |
| 9 |
ARZ |
17 – 31 L |
-12.74 |
57.8% /
62.1% |
11.1% /
6.9% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.62 /
9.45 |
45.5% /
38.5% |
27.3% /
17.9% |
3.55 /
4.18 |
56 /
68 |
64.3% /
51.0% |
55.4% /
48.5% |
29.6% /
54.6% |
6.02 /
6.43 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
19.6% /
57.4% |
27.73 /
25.64 |
| 10 |
LA |
31 – 7 W |
12.03 |
55.0% /
43.2% |
5.0% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
8.95 /
5.14 |
50.0% /
60.0% |
29.5% /
10.0% |
3.55 /
5.20 |
64 /
54 |
50.0% /
53.7% |
51.6% /
46.3% |
32.8% /
36.4% |
5.23 /
5.15 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
68.8% /
18.5% |
25.56 /
24.40 |
| 11 |
@JAX |
30 – 10 W |
14.29 |
66.7% /
42.9% |
8.3% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.75 /
5.21 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
26.2% /
18.8% |
4.07 /
3.38 |
66 /
44 |
51.9% /
45.2% |
51.5% /
45.5% |
42.9% /
15.1% |
5.05 /
4.55 |
0.0% /
4.5% |
63.6% /
36.4% |
27.67 /
24.71 |
| 12 |
MIN |
34 – 26 W |
1.80 |
39.3% /
50.0% |
7.1% /
2.9% |
3.8% /
3.0% |
7.68 /
7.53 |
59.0% /
33.3% |
23.1% /
16.7% |
5.33 /
3.72 |
67 /
52 |
52.7% /
50.0% |
50.7% /
44.2% |
58.0% /
47.4% |
6.31 /
6.21 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
58.2% /
34.6% |
35.92 /
26.36 |
| 13 |
@SEA |
23 – 30 L |
-0.29 |
51.6% /
43.9% |
3.2% /
9.8% |
6.7% /
2.7% |
9.48 /
4.41 |
56.0% /
29.6% |
28.0% /
29.6% |
2.84 /
5.41 |
56 /
68 |
59.1% /
39.6% |
53.6% /
38.2% |
40.5% /
44.0% |
6.52 /
4.81 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
44.6% /
39.7% |
24.83 /
36.62 |
| 14 |
@CIN |
26 – 23 W |
6.94 |
41.3% /
48.7% |
10.9% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.54 /
7.97 |
56.5% /
42.3% |
21.7% /
26.9% |
4.35 /
3.31 |
69 /
65 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
46.4% /
46.2% |
37.4% /
45.2% |
5.14 /
6.11 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
33.3% /
40.0% |
31.62 /
27.73 |
| 15 |
ATL |
31 – 13 W |
7.76 |
54.2% /
37.1% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.79 /
6.09 |
50.0% /
39.1% |
15.6% /
34.8% |
5.06 /
2.70 |
56 /
58 |
51.1% /
41.5% |
51.8% /
37.9% |
55.7% /
46.6% |
7.09 /
4.74 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
57.1% /
39.7% |
19.11 /
38.45 |
| 16 |
@TEN |
20 – 17 W |
3.30 |
56.8% /
44.1% |
5.4% /
11.8% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
8.27 /
5.53 |
55.0% /
37.5% |
15.0% /
41.7% |
3.80 /
3.75 |
57 /
58 |
60.9% /
38.5% |
56.1% /
41.4% |
29.4% /
33.1% |
6.70 /
4.79 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
41.4% |
21.90 /
35.00 |
| 17 |
HST |
23 – 7 W |
1.62 |
45.8% /
42.9% |
4.2% /
8.6% |
4.3% /
3.1% |
10.04 /
3.89 |
45.9% /
59.3% |
24.3% /
18.5% |
4.73 /
3.19 |
61 /
62 |
51.1% /
57.8% |
45.9% /
50.0% |
54.0% /
17.7% |
6.82 /
3.58 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.7% /
43.5% |
30.17 /
24.67 |
| 18 |
@LA |
27 – 24 W |
-5.31 |
50.0% /
45.9% |
8.3% /
13.5% |
6.1% /
6.3% |
8.72 /
5.43 |
54.8% /
25.9% |
19.4% /
37.0% |
4.35 /
2.37 |
67 /
64 |
51.0% /
29.5% |
52.2% /
37.5% |
55.8% /
43.7% |
6.70 /
4.14 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
42.2% |
21.91 /
28.45 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@TB |
29 – 31 L |
-3.19 |
57.6% /
56.0% |
1.7% /
0.0% |
1.7% /
4.0% |
6.63 /
7.58 |
38.9% /
64.3% |
27.8% /
7.1% |
3.33 /
3.71 |
77 /
64 |
54.2% /
60.4% |
53.2% /
57.8% |
32.0% /
38.5% |
5.86 /
6.73 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
23.4% /
21.9% |
26.92 /
32.69 |
| 2 |
@LAC |
20 – 17 W |
2.86 |
69.0% /
53.5% |
6.9% /
4.7% |
3.7% /
4.9% |
7.62 /
7.28 |
64.5% /
52.6% |
6.5% /
15.8% |
6.39 /
5.00 |
60 /
62 |
69.4% /
56.3% |
66.7% /
53.2% |
40.7% /
40.9% |
6.98 /
6.58 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.7% /
30.6% |
24.63 /
29.29 |
| 3 |
PHI |
41 – 21 W |
11.98 |
60.0% /
36.6% |
13.3% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
7.33 /
7.39 |
56.1% /
33.3% |
22.0% /
16.7% |
3.90 /
5.33 |
71 /
53 |
63.0% /
39.5% |
57.7% /
35.8% |
25.1% /
46.7% |
5.35 /
6.92 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
57.7% /
22.6% |
30.69 /
21.33 |
| 4 |
CAR |
36 – 28 W |
7.10 |
59.1% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
8.55 /
6.05 |
55.9% /
62.5% |
26.5% /
20.8% |
6.76 /
4.71 |
56 /
68 |
60.9% /
61.2% |
57.1% /
54.4% |
55.5% /
42.0% |
7.46 /
5.57 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.7% /
35.3% |
35.73 /
21.45 |
| 5 |
NYG |
44 – 20 W |
8.12 |
48.6% /
48.7% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
3.0% /
5.1% |
8.97 /
7.54 |
48.7% /
32.0% |
15.4% /
28.0% |
5.15 /
2.92 |
74 /
64 |
48.2% /
43.8% |
48.6% /
42.2% |
52.6% /
38.4% |
6.96 /
5.73 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
52.7% /
39.1% |
32.70 /
23.42 |
| 6 |
@NE |
35 – 29 W |
-2.00 |
52.9% /
52.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
2.0% /
4.8% |
8.73 /
9.35 |
35.5% /
51.9% |
29.0% /
18.5% |
3.94 /
4.44 |
82 /
50 |
50.8% /
57.5% |
46.3% /
52.0% |
39.7% /
56.4% |
6.91 /
6.70 |
1.2% /
2.0% |
37.8% /
54.0% |
29.00 /
30.38 |
| 8 |
@MIN |
20 – 16 W |
-3.37 |
40.9% /
27.0% |
6.8% /
2.7% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.75 /
4.78 |
41.7% /
37.5% |
8.3% /
33.3% |
3.25 /
4.21 |
68 /
61 |
39.6% /
37.0% |
41.2% /
31.1% |
43.4% /
45.6% |
6.16 /
4.56 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
35.3% /
39.3% |
20.91 /
29.83 |
| 9 |
DEN |
16 – 30 L |
-13.61 |
34.1% /
43.8% |
4.9% /
12.5% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.17 /
6.78 |
56.3% /
48.8% |
18.8% /
29.3% |
4.88 /
4.63 |
57 /
73 |
47.4% /
46.4% |
40.4% /
46.6% |
48.4% /
60.8% |
5.09 /
5.58 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
56.2% |
30.90 /
30.67 |
| 10 |
ATL |
43 – 3 W |
23.04 |
57.1% /
31.0% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
11.1% |
9.06 /
3.83 |
43.2% /
41.7% |
21.6% /
20.8% |
3.08 /
4.29 |
72 /
53 |
49.1% /
46.2% |
50.0% /
35.8% |
30.2% /
26.5% |
5.99 /
4.04 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
51.4% /
45.3% |
29.73 /
26.75 |
| 11 |
@KC |
9 – 19 L |
-9.92 |
39.6% /
42.5% |
10.4% /
7.5% |
4.7% /
2.7% |
4.04 /
6.10 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
18.8% /
23.1% |
5.13 /
4.85 |
64 /
66 |
41.7% /
50.0% |
39.1% /
45.5% |
10.4% /
45.1% |
4.31 /
5.61 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
25.0% /
39.4% |
29.17 /
28.00 |
| 12 |
LV |
33 – 36 L |
-6.11 |
54.2% /
38.1% |
2.1% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.77 /
8.71 |
45.0% /
45.7% |
5.0% /
17.1% |
3.20 /
4.09 |
68 /
77 |
58.2% /
46.8% |
51.5% /
41.6% |
38.3% /
54.3% |
6.43 /
6.61 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.4% /
45.5% |
19.46 /
26.40 |
| 13 |
@NO |
27 – 17 W |
4.89 |
39.0% /
32.6% |
2.4% /
4.7% |
2.5% /
9.8% |
5.63 /
5.86 |
33.3% /
61.5% |
25.0% /
23.1% |
6.08 /
5.88 |
65 /
69 |
43.1% /
45.3% |
36.9% /
43.5% |
56.8% /
53.5% |
5.80 /
5.87 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
37.7% |
27.36 /
26.71 |
| 14 |
@WAS |
27 – 20 W |
14.75 |
39.5% /
20.5% |
9.3% /
12.8% |
5.1% /
2.9% |
4.67 /
3.18 |
45.7% /
52.2% |
25.7% /
17.4% |
3.49 /
4.35 |
78 /
62 |
45.6% /
36.4% |
42.3% /
32.3% |
22.5% /
28.7% |
4.14 /
3.61 |
0.0% /
4.8% |
44.9% /
37.1% |
32.07 /
27.29 |
| 15 |
@NYG |
21 – 6 W |
8.34 |
55.0% /
29.7% |
7.5% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
5.08 /
4.81 |
46.7% /
37.5% |
26.7% /
20.8% |
4.17 /
5.17 |
70 /
61 |
51.9% /
30.2% |
51.4% /
32.8% |
18.7% /
31.1% |
4.69 /
4.95 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
42.9% /
39.3% |
33.82 /
22.90 |
| 16 |
WAS |
56 – 14 W |
27.96 |
62.2% /
29.7% |
6.7% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
8.64 /
4.65 |
57.1% /
35.0% |
28.6% /
25.0% |
3.86 /
4.25 |
73 /
57 |
61.1% /
37.8% |
60.3% /
31.6% |
38.6% /
51.6% |
6.81 /
4.51 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.4% /
35.1% |
18.91 /
27.62 |
| 17 |
ARZ |
22 – 25 L |
-6.21 |
60.0% /
40.0% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.40 /
6.80 |
35.3% /
37.5% |
35.3% /
25.0% |
2.65 /
3.97 |
57 /
72 |
55.8% /
35.2% |
52.6% /
38.9% |
29.8% /
49.4% |
5.28 /
5.54 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.8% /
44.4% |
27.78 /
30.82 |
| 18 |
@PHI |
51 – 26 W |
9.56 |
58.6% /
40.5% |
3.4% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
10.48 /
4.49 |
59.4% /
51.5% |
25.0% /
21.2% |
5.34 /
4.52 |
61 /
70 |
57.8% /
39.6% |
59.0% /
45.7% |
54.4% /
42.7% |
7.79 /
4.50 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.5% /
47.1% |
35.20 /
26.80 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Dallas Cowboys