Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Cleveland Team Total Over (13 -115)

Lean – CLEVELAND (+9.5) over San Francisco

· Deshaun Watson and Browns starting guard Joel Bitonio are out, but backup quarterback PJ Walker is averaging 5.4 yppp, which is exactly the same as Watson this season. Walker is only about 3 points worse than Watson according to our metrics.

· There could be some showers in this game, but it won’t be as impactful for these offenses as it would for some in the league. Cleveland’s ground game ranks 8th by our numbers and San Francisco’s ranks 2nd. I think the 49ers will be able to push the score as well and the Browns could get some garbage points at the end of the game if it comes to it.

· Brock Purdy’s 0.50 EPA/play is the most efficient start to a season since 2000. The limitations spoken about Purdy’s elbow and arm strength coming into the year have not been borne out. Purdy leads the NFL averaging 0.73 EPA/att on throws outside the numbers and he has a league-leading 72% completion rate on passes with 10+ air yards.

· San Francisco All-Pro LT Trent Williams did not allow a pressure on any of his pass-blocking matchups versus Micah Parsons last week and he will shut down edge defender Myles Garrett as well.

· Purdy completed all 19 of his under 2.5-second dropbacks last week and he will get the ball out fast on Sunday to negate Cleveland’s pass rush.

· The situation is not good for San Francisco going on the road after 3 home wins, as road favorites of more than 3 points after 3 or more consecutive home games are just 19-43-1 ATS (3-19 ATS if on a win streak) and the Niners also apply to a 28-80-2 ATS situation that plays against teams off consecutive wins in which they scored more than 30 points when visiting a non-division opponent.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 8.6 points, with a predicted total of 38.6 points, but I’ll lean with Cleveland based on the situation.

Cleveland’s Team Total Over (13 -115) is a Strong Opinion up to -125 odds (or Over 13.5 to +110).