Game Analysis

San Francisco (-7) vs CHICAGO

· I’d feel comfortable rating San Francisco’s offense in the top 10 if Jimmy Garoppolo was at the helm but there’s so much uncertainty with Trey Lance after starting just three games during the last two years. We’re going to match the market with the 49ers offense to start ranking them around average and the range of outcomes here might be the largest in the NFL with Lance under center Kittle is out for SF today, which lowers their offense by 0.5 points. 

· San Francisco’s defense is overrated going into this season. Much has been made about the addition of middling CB Charvarius Ward and not enough about the loss of nickelback K’Waun Williams (6th in yards allowed per slot cover snap last year). 

· Safety Jimmie Ward’s hamstring injury will keep him out to start the season. The 49ers surrendered 6.4 yppl to Colt McCoy’s Cardinals in the only game Ward missed last season.

· The Bears might be the worst team in the NFL in head coach Matt Eberflus’s first season. 

· Justin Fields averaged 5.3 yppp (31st) during his rookie season and any year 2 jump we might see in his ability is likely to be offset by Chicago trotting out potentially both the worst receiver group in the NFL and the worst offensive line.

· I generally like Eberflus as a defensive play caller but talent drain for the Bears on that side of the ball this offseason will present a real challenge. Chicago lost five starters: edge rusher Khalil Mack, interior defenders Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, and Eddie Goldman as well as safety Tashaun Gipson.

·  Our model favors the 49ers by 7.5 with a predicted total of 43.3.