San Francisco 49ers @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Sep 11
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 463
Odds: Chicago Bears +7, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

San Francisco (-7) vs CHICAGO

· I’d feel comfortable rating San Francisco’s offense in the top 10 if Jimmy Garoppolo was at the helm but there’s so much uncertainty with Trey Lance after starting just three games during the last two years. We’re going to match the market with the 49ers offense to start ranking them around average and the range of outcomes here might be the largest in the NFL with Lance under center Kittle is out for SF today, which lowers their offense by 0.5 points. 

· San Francisco’s defense is overrated going into this season. Much has been made about the addition of middling CB Charvarius Ward and not enough about the loss of nickelback K’Waun Williams (6th in yards allowed per slot cover snap last year). 

· Safety Jimmie Ward’s hamstring injury will keep him out to start the season. The 49ers surrendered 6.4 yppl to Colt McCoy’s Cardinals in the only game Ward missed last season.

· The Bears might be the worst team in the NFL in head coach Matt Eberflus’s first season. 

· Justin Fields averaged 5.3 yppp (31st) during his rookie season and any year 2 jump we might see in his ability is likely to be offset by Chicago trotting out potentially both the worst receiver group in the NFL and the worst offensive line.

· I generally like Eberflus as a defensive play caller but talent drain for the Bears on that side of the ball this offseason will present a real challenge. Chicago lost five starters: edge rusher Khalil Mack, interior defenders Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, and Eddie Goldman as well as safety Tashaun Gipson.

·  Our model favors the 49ers by 7.5 with a predicted total of 43.3.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Bears
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 27.00 60.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 55.6% 41.7%
  • Sack Rate 3.7% 5.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 8.0% 14.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 59.2% 45.3%
  • NYPP 11.52 5.23



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.00 24.00
  • RB YPR 5.48 4.86
  • Stuff Rate 32.1% 20.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.3% 50.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 53.4% 61.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.68 4.83




Game

  • All Snaps 55.00 84.00
  • Early Down Succ 51.1% 50.0%
  • Succ Rate 47.3% 44.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 57.6% 49.3%
  • Yards Per Play 8.04 5.12
  • Fumble Lost Rate 3.6% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.80 23.86
  • Run Ratio 50.9% 28.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
Share This