Game Analysis

San Francisco (-3) at ARIZONA

• The 49ers are getting healthier, while the Cardinals are going in the other direction. Brock Purdy should be under center this week, upgrading San Francisco’s offense by 3.2 points from Mac Jones. Purdy is averaging 8.0 yppp for his career and 7.6 yppp in two starts this season. Jones is averaging 6.7 yppp this year.
• The 49ers will also likely be getting back WR Ricky Pearsall, who is averaging 2.29 yards per route run, while San Francisco’s other wide receivers, Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Demarcus Robinson have combined for 1.45 yards per route run.
• Arizona’s defense will likely be without CB Will Johnson, who is allowing 0.42 yards per cover snap fewer than backup Denzel Burke.
• Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison had an appendectomy, and he is worth 1 point according to our numbers. Harrison is averaging 0.55 more EPA/target than backup WR Greg Dortch.
• San Francisco’s defense got back edge defender Bryce Huff last week, and he ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 51.6 points, but I used Arizona in my spread pool at +3 (would have chosen SF at -2.5 or less) based on a 158-62-6 ATS blowout bounce-back situation. I passed the over because of a 583-430-16 Under angle that applies to this game.