Game Analysis
Atlanta just finished a road trip in which they faced two of the top secondaries in the league, in the Seahawks and Broncos, and put up 24 and 23 points. The Dirty Birds now travel home to face a Chargers defense that is playing well, by their historically low standards, but still only ranking 16th in NYPP and 18th in passing success rate allowed. Look for the Falcons who are averaging a league-best 8.8 NYPP to put up points against the Bolts. While Rivers is having another fantastic season, putting up 7.4 NYPP with an above 50% passing success rate, the poor rush offense and rush defense have caused leads to evaporate this year en route to a 2-4 start. The advanced stats model sees a shootout and the Falcons covering the chalk, so Falcons (-6.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to the OVER (53).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.8
45.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.2%
46.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.7%
15.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.4%
33.6%
-
NYPP
7.4
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.8
22.5
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.9%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.6%
38.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
61.7
68.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.0%
48.6%
-
Succ Rate
45.9%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.0%
34.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.8%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
26.9
-
Run Ratio
41.6%
32.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.7
30.7
-
Game Control
7.3
-7.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.5
43.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.5%
53.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
4.2%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.8%
32.5%
-
NYPP
8.8
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.2
25.0
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
22.7%
15.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
33.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
64.7
68.7
-
Early Down Succ
52.5%
54.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.7%
50.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.6%
33.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.8
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
26.2
-
Run Ratio
42.0%
36.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
25.5
-
Game Control
4.3
-4.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@KC |
27 – 33 L |
11.5 |
56.8% /
52.9% |
2.7% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
57.6% /
57.9% |
15.2% /
21.1% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
70 /
70 |
62.3% /
57.4% |
57.1% /
54.3% |
38.8% /
44.3% |
5.6 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
27.1% |
30.4 /
28.4 |
| 2 |
JAC |
38 – 14 W |
21.2 |
46.4% /
42.3% |
10.7% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
44.4% /
63.6% |
19.4% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
6.3 |
64 /
63 |
45.8% /
52.0% |
45.3% /
46.0% |
60.2% /
42.8% |
5.6 /
6.2 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
17.5% |
40.3 /
22.0 |
| 3 |
@IND |
22 – 26 L |
-1.8 |
56.1% /
53.8% |
4.9% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.8 /
8.1 |
35.3% /
38.5% |
17.6% /
34.6% |
2.2 /
3.6 |
58 /
65 |
53.2% /
50.9% |
50.0% /
47.7% |
40.2% /
36.8% |
6.1 /
6.3 |
5.2% /
1.5% |
29.3% /
40.0% |
28.6 /
28.1 |
| 4 |
NO |
34 – 35 L |
2.3 |
43.5% /
50.0% |
6.5% /
5.3% |
2.3% /
5.6% |
6.7 /
5.0 |
33.3% /
36.8% |
38.1% /
10.5% |
1.8 /
2.3 |
67 /
76 |
39.6% /
42.0% |
40.3% /
43.4% |
38.7% /
19.0% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
50.0% |
31.4 /
36.9 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
31 – 34 L |
0.1 |
56.3% /
41.9% |
6.3% /
7.0% |
6.7% /
2.5% |
11.0 /
7.0 |
42.1% /
56.0% |
31.6% /
24.0% |
3.8 /
3.6 |
51 /
68 |
54.8% /
49.1% |
51.0% /
47.1% |
62.4% /
44.0% |
8.3 /
5.7 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
36.8% |
29.3 /
37.5 |
| 6 |
DEN |
21 – 13 W |
10.3 |
41.9% /
38.5% |
6.5% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
4.2 |
20.7% /
43.8% |
31.0% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
5.3 |
60 /
68 |
32.6% /
40.4% |
31.7% /
39.7% |
35.8% /
21.1% |
4.4 /
4.5 |
3.3% /
2.9% |
48.3% /
23.5% |
36.4 /
31.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TB |
24 – 31 L |
-4.7 |
50.0% /
57.6% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.7 /
8.5 |
30.4% /
28.1% |
30.4% /
21.9% |
2.3 /
2.9 |
65 /
65 |
50.0% /
51.0% |
43.1% /
43.1% |
43.2% /
48.3% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.4% /
49.2% |
30.8 /
23.8 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
35 – 28 W |
2.8 |
65.7% /
58.7% |
2.9% /
2.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
6.5 |
51.7% /
60.0% |
13.8% /
8.0% |
4.8 /
6.2 |
64 /
71 |
61.1% /
63.2% |
59.4% /
59.2% |
50.2% /
30.8% |
8.3 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.3% /
35.2% |
28.2 /
19.3 |
| 3 |
@NO |
45 – 32 W |
7.9 |
59.4% /
50.0% |
6.3% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
48.5% /
56.5% |
9.1% /
4.3% |
6.6 /
5.0 |
65 /
79 |
57.1% /
51.6% |
53.8% /
51.9% |
49.8% /
49.6% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
50.8% /
29.1% |
32.6 /
23.8 |
| 4 |
CAR |
48 – 33 W |
11.4 |
57.5% /
53.1% |
7.5% /
2.0% |
2.7% /
4.2% |
12.0 /
6.7 |
37.0% /
46.7% |
33.3% /
26.7% |
3.4 /
3.3 |
67 /
64 |
50.0% /
53.2% |
49.3% /
51.6% |
63.0% /
36.0% |
8.6 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
23.4% |
20.9 /
23.9 |
| 5 |
@DEN |
23 – 16 W |
11.1 |
36.7% /
40.0% |
6.7% /
15.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.3 /
4.6 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
27.3% /
16.7% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
63 /
64 |
47.8% /
45.5% |
41.3% /
43.8% |
56.8% /
13.5% |
5.9 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
52.4% /
37.5% |
32.7 /
25.0 |
| 6 |
@SEA |
24 – 26 L |
-2.4 |
45.7% /
60.5% |
8.7% /
2.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.9 |
44.4% /
41.9% |
22.2% /
16.1% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
64 /
69 |
49.0% /
63.3% |
45.3% /
52.2% |
40.9% /
20.8% |
5.7 /
4.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
44.9% |
21.0 /
37.4 |
San Diego Chargers
@ 
Atlanta Falcons