Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The Under is a Strong Opinion at 51 points.

1-Star Best Bet – Under (52) – TENNESSEE (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh

The Titans haven’t faced a team with a pressure rate above 25% all season and the Steelers boast a league-high 39% pressure rate. To make matters worse, Tennessee’s offensive line won’t have starting left tackle Taylor Lewan (torn ACL) and backup LT Ty Sambrailo has surrendered 2 sacks in only 65 pass blocking snaps thus far and has no chance of staying in front of Steelers’ edge defender Bud Dupree, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency. Ryan Tannehill has been much worse versus the blitz since joining the Titans, averaging just 6.1 yards per pass play against blitzes compared to 8.6 yppp against a standard rush. Pittsburgh’s defense blitzes at by far the highest rate in the NFL and Tannehill won’t have as much time to look downfield on those play-action passes.

I think the loss of Steelers LB Devin Bush is being overplayed. In general, linebackers are the least important players for defenses with coverage and pass rush significantly more valuable. If anything, Bush’s absence could incentivize offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to use the ground game more often than he normally would’ve in this matchup, which would help keep the clock moving and limit scoring.

Ben Roethlisberger is averaging a career low in air yards and he likely won’t have time to look downfield on Sunday. Interior defender Jeffery Simmons ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency and he will take advantage of a banged-up RG David DeCastro and C Maurkice Pouncey, both of whom had to depart last week’s game with injuries.

There is a chance CB Adoree’ Jackson makes his season debut for Tennessee’s defense this week, which would be a boost to the Titans’ defense. Last year, the Titans were 0.5 yards per pass play better in the 11 games Jackson was healthy than the 5 games he missed with a foot sprain.

Tennessee’s rush defense ranks last by our numbers and I expect Pittsburgh to use the ground game heavily in this matchup, especially if Jackson returns. Pittsburgh tends to play more conservative under Tomlin away from home and the Steelers have gone under in 63% of road games under Tomlin (since 2007), including 36-8-1 Under on the road since 2015.

Our model favors the Steelers by 1.2 points with a predicted total of 48.3 points and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 51.5 points or more (Strong Opinion Under 51).

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Titans

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 40.7
Succ Pass Plays 46.5% 41.8%
Sack Rate 4.5% 12.6%
Int Rate 0.8% 3.7%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 23.8%
Big Pass Yards 30.2% 50.2%
NYPP 6.3 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 20.3
RB YPR 4.8 2.1
Stuff Rate 20.1% 29.9%
Succ Rush Plays 43.4% 29.1%
Big Rush Yards 57.5% 32.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 2.5

Game

All Snaps 68.0 61.0
Early Down Succ 47.3% 36.6%
Succ Rate 45.2% 37.9%
Big Yards Rate 40.7% 47.9%
Yards Per Play 5.7 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 27.2
Run Ratio 43.8% 33.1%
Starting Field Pos 30.9 30.9
Game Control 2.8 -2.8

Points 26.7 19.3

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.7 36.3
Succ Pass Plays 54.6% 51.0%
Sack Rate 3.0% 3.7%
Int Rate 0.9% 4.0%
Deep Pass Rate 11.4% 20.6%
Big Pass Yards 38.0% 40.5%
NYPP 7.7 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 34.3 28.7
RB YPR 3.6 5.9
Stuff Rate 17.5% 16.8%
Succ Rush Plays 57.2% 55.1%
Big Rush Yards 34.5% 57.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 5.7

Game

All Snaps 70.0 65.0
Early Down Succ 59.6% 54.0%
Succ Rate 55.7% 52.9%
Big Yards Rate 37.1% 47.2%
Yards Per Play 5.6 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.9 27.6
Run Ratio 49.7% 44.6%
Starting Field Pos 30.4 22.9
Game Control 1.5 -1.5

Points 26.7 24.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	26 – 16 W	3.1	44.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	6.1 / 6.0	36.7% / 25.0%	20.0% / 40.0%	4.7 / 1.5	64 / 64	36.2% / 38.3%	40.6% / 42.2%	35.8% / 31.6%	5.5 / 4.5	1.6% / 0.0%	46.9% / 31.3%	30.3 / 36.3
2	DEN	26 – 21 W	7.1	45.2% / 34.8%	2.4% / 15.2%	2.4% / 2.6%	7.2 / 4.7	40.9% / 42.3%	27.3% / 23.1%	5.0 / 4.0	64 / 72	51.0% / 40.0%	43.8% / 37.5%	49.5% / 57.4%	6.4 / 4.4	1.6% / 1.4%	34.4% / 36.1%	35.1 / 29.9
3	HOU	28 – 21 W	-1.9	50.0% / 40.6%	5.3% / 15.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	5.7 / 7.2	52.6% / 20.0%	13.2% / 26.7%	4.4 / 1.9	76 / 47	54.7% / 31.4%	51.3% / 34.0%	36.7% / 54.6%	5.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 31.9%	27.2 / 26.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	16 – 14 W	-0.4	59.1% / 48.5%	2.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.5	52.9% / 57.7%	20.6% / 30.8%	3.8 / 4.1	78 / 59	59.0% / 57.1%	56.4% / 52.5%	29.2% / 38.4%	4.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.7%	43.6% / 44.1%	21.4 / 26.9
2	JAC	33 – 30 W	8.0	60.0% / 59.6%	4.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	9.2 / 6.7	52.9% / 59.3%	14.7% / 7.4%	3.6 / 6.1	59 / 74	56.5% / 55.9%	55.9% / 59.5%	28.8% / 38.5%	6.0 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	57.6% / 36.5%	35.3 / 18.6
3	@MIN	31 – 30 W	-3.2	44.7% / 44.8%	2.6% / 6.9%	2.7% / 7.4%	8.2 / 8.2	65.7% / 48.5%	17.1% / 12.1%	3.8 / 6.8	73 / 62	63.2% / 49.0%	54.8% / 46.8%	53.4% / 64.7%	6.1 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.6%	47.9% / 53.2%	34.4 / 23.3

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 25

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis