Game Analysis

SEATTLE (-3.5) vs Pittsburgh

· Mike Tomlin has to at least split these last two games to make it 17 straight seasons without a losing record.

· Tomlin’s defense, with a 39.5% blitz rate (6th-highest), can affect Geno Smith as Seattle’s yards per attempt against the blitz is only 82% of their yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (31st).

· Steelers CB Joey Porter shut down Bengals WR Tee Higgins last week conceding just 1 reception on 32 routes. Porter will likely shadow wide receiver DK Metcalf, who is averaging 0.37 EPA/target (20th).

· The Seahawks’ yards per attempt against man coverage is just 79% of their yards per attempt versus zone (27th) and they will struggle against a Steelers defense with a 31.8% man-coverage rate (6th-highest).

· Pittsburgh WR George Pickens had 195 yards on 6 targets last week, but he will be contained by CB Tariq Woolen, who is allowing just 0.79 yards per cover snap (13th).

· Seattle’s defense will likely get back nickelback Devon Witherspoon, who is conceding 0.92 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th) but missed his second straight game last Sunday.

· Seahawks edge defender Boye Mafe ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc versus rookie RT Broderick Jones.

· Steelers RB Jaylen Warren is averaging 1.49 yards per route run (5th) but Mason Rudolph can’t trust the screen game as Seattle’s defense is allowing -0.11 EPA/target to running backs (8th).

· Our model favors the Seahawks by 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 42.4 points, and Pittsburgh applies to a negative 54-130-8 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s 34-11 upset win over a division rival. I used Seattle in my spread pool.

· Pittsburgh is also 52-21-2 UNDER in all road games going back many years, including 5-1 Under on the road this season – so I wouldn’t play over despite the math leaning that way a bit.