Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (45) – LA CHARGERS (-3) vs Pittsburgh

• The winner of this game on Sunday night will see their playoff chance rise to ~80% while the loser will drop below 50% – making this a terrible time for the Chargers to lose Joe Alt. The Chargers were already without Pro Bowl tackle Rashawn Slater to start the season, and the difference between missing both starting tackles compared to having Alt on the field has been stark.
• Alt has been on the field for 296 plays this year and off for 295 plays. Los Angeles is averaging 0.09 EPA/play with Alt on the field, equating to the 9th-rated offense. The Chargers are averaging -0.02 EPA/play with Alt off the field, equating to the 24th-rated offense.
• Los Angeles also lost backup tackle Bobby Hart in the win over the Titans, forcing them to trade for Trevor Penning at the deadline. Penning ranks 51st in pass blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifying guards this season, and he’s going to be one of the worst tackles in the NFL.
• Colts tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith allowed 10 quick pressures (a pressure in under 2.5 seconds) against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh edge defenders TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith will wreak havoc on Penning and backup RT Trey Pipkins, who ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Steelers defense has a 36% man-coverage rate (4th-highest), and they will limit Justin Herbert, who ranks 28th relatively against man coverage compared to zone coverage.
• Herbert has a 1.5% Turnover Worthy Play Rate (4th), and I do not expect him to try to squeeze passes into tight windows versus a Pittsburgh defense averaging 2.0 takeaways per game (2nd). The Chargers will use a conservative game plan to protect their tackles against the Steelers’ pass rush, which will shorten the game.
• Pittsburgh’s defense finally adjusted after allowing too many explosive passes. The Steelers called two-high on a season-high 46.4% of dropbacks against Indianapolis and had Jalen Ramsey at full-time safety for the first game of his career.
• Ramsey will contain Los Angeles TE Oronde Gadsden, who is averaging 2.22 yards per route run (3rd).
• The Steelers are more than happy to get into a slog with the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers had only a 2.7-yard average depth of target last week, the 3rd-fewest by a quarterback this year.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 2.4 points, with a predicted total of 42.9 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 44.5 points or more.