Pittsburgh Steelers @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 13
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 279
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders +3, Total: 36.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – LAS VEGAS (+3) over Pittsburgh

  • The Raiders have the 6th-highest man-coverage rate in the NFL and they will shut down Justin Fields, whose yards per attempt against man is just 74% of his yards per attempt versus zone coverage (30th).
  • Las Vegas will be without starting interior defender Christian Wilkins, but I think they will get plenty of pressure with edge rusher Maxx Crosby lined up across from RT Broderick Jones, who ranks 7th-worst in pass blocking. Crosby had 2 sacks last week coming off the first missed game of his NFL career.
  • Pittsburgh RB Najee Harris is averaging 1.45 yards per route run (9th) but Fields won’t get bailed out by dumping it off to his running backs. The Raiders are conceding just a 37% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (9th).
  • The Steelers have the 3rd-highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation but the ground game will be contained as the Las Vegas rush defense ranks 10th according to our numbers.
  • Pittsburgh’s best pass rushers are edge defender TJ Watt and interior defender Cameron Heyward. Watt has 4.5 sacks (9th) and Heyward ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency. Heyward will control rookie LG Jackson Powers-Johnson while Raiders backup right tackle DJ Glaze ranks 6th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and will struggle with Watt.
  • Aidan O’Connell is getting the start this week and he will need to get the ball out quickly. However, Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers, who is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (13th) has been ruled out this week and he’s worth 0.8 points. The Raiders will need to count on his backup to take advantage of rookie nickelback Beanie Bishop, who is surrendering 1.68 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst).
  • Our model favors the Steelers by 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points, and the Steelers are in a 10-42-1 ATS situation that applies to teams coming off consecutive upset losses. I’m staying off the over because Pittsburgh’s conservative play on the road tends to lead to under (56-24-2 Under on the road since 2015).
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