Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Pittsburgh (+3) over LAS VEGAS 

· The Las Vegas defense will be a reprieve for Kenny Pickett after going against the Browns and 49ers, who rank 1st and 3rd respectively in dropback EPA/play allowed.

· The Raiders just haven’t been able to get off the field as opponents have gotten a first down on a league-high 88% of opportunities.

· Pittsburgh is one of 7 offenses targeting RBs on more than a quarter of the passes which should pay dividends on Sunday night. Las Vegas DC Patrick Graham’s defense allowed 6.4 yards per target to running backs in 2022 (29th).

· Steelers RT Chukwuma Okorafor ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will battle across from edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who has 10 pressures (6th).

· Pickett should have clean enough pockets to look downfield for WR George Pickens versus Raiders CB Jakorian Bennett, who ranks 8th-worst in PFF coverage grade.

· Las Vegas has a league-low 22% rush success rate but the Raiders rank 4th averaging 0.27 EPA/dropback.

· Jimmy Garoppolo has a 56% success rate when targeting RB Josh Jacobs as Josh McDaniels is one of the best screen designers in the NFL. Jacobs will continue to be a threat catching passes out of the backfield this week as Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 6.1 yards per target to opposing running backs last year (25th).

· The screen game will slow down Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt, who has 5 quarterback hits and 4 sacks this season. Watt had just 1 QB hit in his game versus Las Vegas last season.

· The Raiders lead the league in pass-blocking efficiency and RG Greg Van Roten has not allowed a single pressure this year. Van Roten will shut down Pittsburgh interior defender Larry Ogunjobi, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency. Ogunjobi will not have his running mate on the inside Cameron Heyward, who ranked 4th in pass-rushing efficiency among interior defenders last season.

· The Steelers defense was expected to be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick but he’s been cleared to play. Fitzpatrick ranked 3rd in PFF grade among safeties last year and is worth 0.5 points according to our metrics.

· Our model favors the Raiders by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points, and Vegas applies to a very negative 45-115-5 ATS situation.

Pittsburgh is a Strong Opinion at -3 -115 odds or better.