Game Analysis
KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs Pittsburgh
Kansas City’s offense has been special so far this season but the Chiefss defense has surrendered 6.8 yards per play the last two weeks and now rank 20th in my season ratings heading into a game against a Pittsburgh attack that is due to bounce-back after a horrendous performance in last week’s 9-30 upset loss to the Jags. The Steelers play calling was puzzling last week, as offensive coordinator Todd Haley called 57 pass plays and only gave Le’Veon Bell 15 carries against a Jaguars defense ranked 3rd against the pass and last against the run in my metrics. The Kansas City defense pass/run splits aren’t as drastic, but the Chiefs are allowing the 6th most yards per rush to opponents this season and since losing Eric Berry, one of the league’s best run-stopping safeties, to a season-ending Achilles injury the Chiefs’ defense has allowed 5.1 yards per carry. I would be surprised if we don’t see more Le’Veon Bell this week.
The Steelers apply to a 132-50-8 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset loss so I do expect them to come to play today. However, I also have an indicator that favors Kansas City in this game so I’ll just sit back and watch.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.6
33.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.8%
39.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
10.5%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
3.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.8%
19.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.3%
28.1%
-
NYPP
6.1
4.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
27.0
-
RB YPR
3.3
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
28.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.7%
43.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.1%
58.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.2
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
68.4
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.4%
44.0%
-
Succ Rate
42.8%
42.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.9%
46.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.7
-
Run Ratio
40.3%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
28.0
-
Game Control
3.0
-3.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.1%
41.2%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
32.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.0%
52.4%
-
NYPP
7.2
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.6
25.8
-
RB YPR
5.9
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
21.8%
21.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.8%
51.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.4%
52.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.6
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
52.8%
47.6%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
45.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.8%
51.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.7
25.5
-
Run Ratio
44.9%
41.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
26.2
-
Game Control
2.8
-2.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CLE |
21 – 18 W |
5.8 |
45.9% /
43.2% |
2.7% /
18.9% |
2.8% /
3.3% |
6.9 /
4.9 |
16.0% /
36.0% |
16.0% /
16.0% |
1.5 /
2.3 |
62 /
62 |
41.0% /
41.7% |
33.9% /
40.3% |
35.2% /
45.1% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
40.3% |
20.8 /
28.6 |
| 2 |
MIN |
26 – 9 W |
9.3 |
40.5% /
32.5% |
5.4% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
3.7 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
20.6% /
25.0% |
3.1 /
4.6 |
71 /
60 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
40.8% /
38.3% |
34.1% /
45.1% |
4.7 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.9% /
33.3% |
31.8 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
@CHI |
17 – 23 L |
-4.4 |
47.6% /
33.3% |
7.1% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
5.0 /
3.5 |
64.7% /
44.7% |
5.9% /
28.9% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
59 /
62 |
56.3% /
42.0% |
52.5% /
40.3% |
29.4% /
55.3% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
3.4% /
1.6% |
28.8% /
61.3% |
36.4 /
32.7 |
| 4 |
@BAL |
26 – 9 W |
8.6 |
41.9% /
52.9% |
3.2% /
7.8% |
3.3% /
4.3% |
6.7 /
4.0 |
46.5% /
46.7% |
23.3% /
46.7% |
4.0 /
5.5 |
74 /
66 |
45.6% /
56.9% |
44.6% /
51.5% |
26.4% /
25.3% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
58.1% /
22.7% |
31.1 /
28.5 |
| 5 |
JAC |
9 – 30 L |
-4.5 |
42.9% /
37.5% |
3.6% /
12.5% |
9.3% /
7.1% |
5.4 /
5.1 |
40.0% /
40.5% |
35.0% /
24.3% |
3.5 /
6.2 |
76 /
53 |
41.0% /
36.6% |
42.1% /
39.6% |
44.5% /
60.1% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.3% /
69.8% |
21.8 /
26.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
42 – 27 W |
-1.8 |
60.5% /
33.3% |
7.9% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
6.3 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
5.7 /
3.5 |
71 /
75 |
63.5% /
46.4% |
52.1% /
41.3% |
53.7% /
54.8% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.5% /
48.0% |
25.5 /
27.8 |
| 2 |
PHI |
27 – 20 W |
2.0 |
50.0% /
44.2% |
12.5% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
47.4% /
58.8% |
26.3% /
17.6% |
5.9 /
6.3 |
51 /
69 |
51.3% /
46.3% |
49.0% /
47.8% |
45.3% /
42.4% |
6.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.3% /
24.6% |
35.6 /
26.1 |
| 3 |
@LAC |
24 – 10 W |
8.0 |
34.6% /
35.7% |
19.2% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.7 /
5.4 |
56.0% /
34.6% |
20.0% /
34.6% |
7.6 /
4.0 |
51 /
68 |
50.0% /
34.5% |
45.1% /
35.3% |
55.0% /
39.1% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.0% /
38.2% |
30.5 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
WAS |
29 – 20 W |
-4.3 |
47.5% /
45.8% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
51.9% |
19.4% /
14.8% |
5.4 /
4.1 |
71 /
51 |
51.7% /
54.1% |
52.1% /
49.0% |
43.4% /
57.2% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
43.7% /
52.9% |
21.2 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
42 – 34 W |
9.9 |
57.9% /
46.9% |
2.6% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.8 |
40.0% /
60.9% |
34.3% /
13.0% |
3.6 /
6.3 |
73 /
55 |
47.4% /
56.8% |
49.3% /
52.7% |
31.6% /
64.8% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
47.9% /
41.8% |
31.2 /
27.6 |
Pittsburgh Steelers
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs