Game Analysis

Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+1.5) over Pittsburgh

• The Steelers are allowing a league-low -0.29 EPA/rush and the Colts will need Anthony Richardson to win this game through the air.
• Richardson is averaging 0.2 yppp versus the blitz and 8.3 yppp against a standard pass rush. The second-year quarterback will have a favorable matchup as Pittsburgh’s defense has a 75% standard pass rush rate (7th-highest).
• The Steelers have a 41.3% pressure rate (5th) but I think there’s reason to believe the Indianapolis offensive line can limit them on Sunday.
• Colts All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson is the only guard in NFL to not concede a pressure this season and he will line up across from interior defender Cameron Heyward, whose 10 pressures rank 8th.
• Pittsburgh edge rusher TJ Watt has 3.0 sacks (8th) but he will be in a battle versus RT Braden Smith, who has conceded only 4 pressures (13th).
• Steelers’ edge rusher Alex Highsmith had 69 pressures last year (13th) but he is expected to miss multiple weeks with a groin injury.
• Richardson has a 12.6-yards average depth of target this year which is the highest on record. The closest is Josh Allen as a rookie averaging 11.0 air yards per attempt.
• Indianapolis WR Alec Pierce leads NFL with 3 receptions having 20+ air yards and is averaging 1.06 EPA/target (2nd) but he will be limited by CB Joey Porter, who is conceding 0.44 yards per cover snap (7th).
• Richardson will need to show he can attack the intermediate areas to Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman, who averaged 2.04 yards per route run last season (19th).
• Indianapolis WR Josh Downs made his season debut last week and he will be open underneath against CB Beanie Bishop, who is allowing 1.50 yards per cover snap in the slot, ranking 27th out of 33 qualifying nickelbacks.
• Pittsburgh is 3-0 despite just a 38.5 success rate on offense (28th).
• Justin Fields has shown a level of caution we hadn’t seen from him previously in his career. Fields does not have a turnover-worthy throw this season and his 6.7% sack rate is miles below his previous single-season low of 9.6%.
• Fields is averaging 33% more yards per attempt against zone coverage than man (7th) and Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will scheme receivers open against a Colts defense with an 87.8% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest).
• Indianapolis is allowing a 60% success rate to tight ends (26th) and they will struggle against TE Pat Freiermuth, who is averaging 0.45 EPA/target (7th).
• The Colts were already without starting CB JuJu Brents and DT DeForest Buckner. Additionally, the Indianapolis defense lost Pro Bowl nickelback Kenny Moore to a hip injury late last week and edge defender Kwity Paye suffered a quad injury.
• A lot of signs are pointing to the over in this game, but Mike Tomlin is typically hyper conservative on the road, which has resulted in a 56-23-2 Under record in road games the last 10 seasons (2-0 UN this season on the road).
• Our model favors the Colts by 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 44.4 points. I’ll lean with Indy, who also applies to a 51-18-3 ATS underdog off their first win angle, but I’d pass the total.