Game Analysis

INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh

· Pittsburgh’s edge rushers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith sustained concussions in last week’s loss to New England. Watt has been cleared by an independent neurological consultant and he is out of the NFL’s concussion protocol.

· Watt has 14.0 sacks (2nd) and he will wreak havoc across from Indianapolis backup RT Blake Freeland, who is surrendering a 10.0% pressure rate.

· Highsmith is no slouch on the other edge with 51 pressures (18th) but I’m projecting him out until I see otherwise.

· The Colts’ yards per attempt against the blitz is a league-low 76% of their yards per attempt against a standard pass rush and Garnder Minshew could struggle against a Steelers defense with a 41.0% blitz rate (6th-highest).

· Indianapolis WR Michael Pittman has the 2nd-most targets in the NFL with 102 but he will be limited by CB Joey Porter, who is allowing just 0.72 yards per cover snap (5th).

· Pittsburgh’s Patrick Peterson has been better as a nickelback than he was outside before the Steelers put Porter in the starting lineup. Peterson is conceding only 0.91 yards per slot cover snap, and he will contain Colts slot WR Josh Downs, who has a 54% success rate (20th).

· Indianapolis cornerback Darrell Baker has surrendered 1.51 yards per cover snap (7th-worst) but it is likely that starter JuJu Brents will be back on the field for his first game since October, which would keep Baker off the field on most plays.

· Pittsburgh wide receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson will be limited by Brents and CB Jaylon Jones, who is conceding 0.80 yards per cover snap (12th).

· Colts’ interior defender DeForest Buckner has 38 pressures (17th) and a league-high 6 batted passes but he will be contained by LG Isaac Seumalo, who ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency.

· The Steelers have the 3rd-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation and the ground game has a favorable matchup as Indianapolis is surrendering a 43.4% rush success rate (29th).

· Our model favors the Colts by just 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 41.0 points, but Pittsburgh applies to a 53-128-7 ATS situation.