Game Analysis

Lean – Pittsburgh (+7) over DETROIT

• Steelers interior defender Cameron Heyward has 41 pressures (12th), and he will have a favorable matchup in this game. Lions’ starting LG Christian Mahogany is sidelined, along with his backup, Kayode Awosika. Third-stringer Trystan Colon surrendered a 12.5% pressure rate last week and was ultimately benched for fourth-stringer Miles Frazier.
• Jared Goff will see collapsing pockets, and he’s already been shaky without TE Sam LaPorta. Detroit’s offense is averaging 0.24 EPA/dropback fewer in the 214 dropbacks with LaPorta off the field compared to the 271 dropbacks LaPorta was on the field.
• Steelers have ruled out edge TJ Watt (lung) for a second consecutive game. They also ruled out CB James Pierre (calf), G Isaac Seumalo (triceps) and list LB Nick Herbig (hamstring) as doubtful.
• Pittsburgh’s defense has been 0.05 EPA/play better with TJ Watt off the field this season, but they’ve been 0.08 EPA/play worse with Watt off the field since 2022. Steelers’ backup edge rusher Nick Herbig, who has a 13.6% pressure rate compared to TJ Watt’s 10.1% pressure rate, has been downgraded to doubtful. I’m adjusting 2.2 points.
• The Lions have a 30% play action rate (5th-highest) and will be limited as the Steelers defense ranks 2nd relatively against play action compared to standard dropbacks.
• Pittsburgh’s offense is targeting running backs on 26.2% of passes (2nd-most), but the screens will be shut down by Detroit’s defense conceding -0.13 EPA/target to opposing running backs (6th).
• Aaron Rodgers will have to look downfield for Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf, who is averaging 0.36 EPA/target (15th). Lions starting cornerback DJ Reed surrendered 97 yards in the first half before being benched last week.
• Lions’ backup safeties Erick Hallett and Daniel Thomas surrendered a combined 13.3 yards per target last week in Detroit’s first game without both Pro Bowl S Brian Branch and All-Pro S Kerby Joseph. However, the Lions will likely get back S Thomas Harper to play alongside Avonte Maddox for this game.
• Our model favors the Lions by 5.2 points, with a predicted total of 50.4 points. Detroit is 14-1 ATS after their last 15 losses but Pittsburgh applies to a 65-26-3 ATS team trend (all under head coach Tomlin).