Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Pittsburgh (-3/-2.5) over DETROIT

Lean – Under 45.5

Detroit’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 4.6 yppl (30th), and I expect it to get even worse for them in this game. The Lions will be without top receiver Golden Tate against a stingy Steelers defense surrendering a league-low 4.4 yppl. Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks first in my numbers, which is bad news for a Lions offense calling passes on 63% of their plays (7th-most). It is also unlikely Detroit will find success on the ground as I have their rush offense ranked last in the league.

After the week 5 play calling disaster against Jacksonville, it seems Steelers offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, has found the recipe for success. Pittsburgh’s point differential in games where Le’Veon Bell gets more than 30 touches is +55, compared to just -24 in other games. Obviously, Bell will get more carries in games where the Steelers lead but the drastic difference in success speaks for itself.

I expect the Steelers to feature Bell heavily in this matchup, which will also keep the clock moving for the under. Furthermore, both these teams play a slow pace averaging more than 30 seconds per play. I don’t see the Lions having any success on offense and the Steelers should win this game. In fact, I would have considered Pittsburgh as a potential Best Bet if not for a negative 17-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies. I’ll still lean with Pittsburgh at -3 or less even with that situation in play and I’ll lean with the Under, which is probably the better play.

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Lions

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.3 34.1
Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 38.6%
Sack Rate 3.7% 10.4%
Int Rate 2.8% 3.7%
Deep Pass Rate 26.0% 19.5%
Big Pass Yards 42.2% 32.3%
NYPP 7.2 4.3

Rush

Rush Plays 32.0 24.0
RB YPR 3.5 4.2
Stuff Rate 19.4% 30.5%
Succ Rush Plays 42.7% 40.0%
Big Rush Yards 39.6% 55.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.3

Game

All Snaps 68.3 58.1
Early Down Succ 49.3% 41.7%
Succ Rate 44.3% 39.6%
Big Yards Rate 41.1% 47.0%
Yards Per Play 5.3 4.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.5
Run Ratio 46.6% 41.6%
Starting Field Pos 27.5 28.7
Game Control 4.0 -4.0

Points 21.0 16.6

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	21 – 18 W	5.8	45.9% / 43.2%	2.7% / 18.9%	2.8% / 3.3%	6.9 / 4.9	16.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	1.5 / 2.3	62 / 62	41.0% / 41.7%	33.9% / 40.3%	35.2% / 45.1%	4.7 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	20.8 / 28.6
2	MIN	26 – 9 W	9.3	40.5% / 32.5%	5.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.7	41.2% / 50.0%	20.6% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.6	71 / 60	48.1% / 42.9%	40.8% / 38.3%	34.1% / 45.1%	4.7 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.7%	47.9% / 33.3%	31.8 / 23.9
3	@CHI	17 – 23 L	-4.4	47.6% / 33.3%	7.1% / 8.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.0 / 3.5	64.7% / 44.7%	5.9% / 28.9%	4.1 / 5.8	59 / 62	56.3% / 42.0%	52.5% / 40.3%	29.4% / 55.3%	4.8 / 4.9	3.4% / 1.6%	28.8% / 61.3%	36.4 / 32.7
4	@BAL	26 – 9 W	8.6	41.9% / 52.9%	3.2% / 7.8%	3.3% / 4.3%	6.7 / 4.0	46.5% / 46.7%	23.3% / 46.7%	4.0 / 5.5	74 / 66	45.6% / 56.9%	44.6% / 51.5%	26.4% / 25.3%	5.2 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	58.1% / 22.7%	31.1 / 28.5
5	JAC	9 – 30 L	-4.5	42.9% / 37.5%	3.6% / 12.5%	9.3% / 7.1%	5.4 / 5.1	40.0% / 40.5%	35.0% / 24.3%	3.5 / 6.2	76 / 53	41.0% / 36.6%	42.1% / 39.6%	44.5% / 60.1%	4.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	26.3% / 69.8%	21.8 / 26.4
6	@KC	19 – 13 W	5.8	57.7% / 35.1%	3.8% / 8.1%	4.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 6.0	53.8% / 40.0%	17.9% / 33.3%	5.0 / 1.9	65 / 52	64.0% / 39.5%	55.4% / 36.5%	61.7% / 62.5%	6.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 28.8%	21.3 / 31.7
7	CIN	29 – 14 W	7.2	48.0% / 35.3%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	10.7 / 3.2	37.0% / 22.2%	17.4% / 38.9%	3.4 / 4.0	71 / 52	49.1% / 32.4%	40.8% / 30.8%	56.5% / 35.6%	6.0 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	64.8% / 34.6%	29.4 / 29.1

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	35 – 23 W	-2.7	47.6% / 42.9%	2.4% / 2.0%	2.4% / 6.3%	6.8 / 5.4	35.7% / 38.9%	21.4% / 16.7%	3.0 / 2.5	70 / 67	42.3% / 41.2%	42.9% / 41.8%	27.4% / 29.4%	5.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	40.0% / 26.9%	36.6 / 28.5
2	@NYG	24 – 10 W	7.5	33.3% / 37.8%	12.5% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	5.0 / 5.6	43.8% / 38.9%	34.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 3.4	56 / 55	37.5% / 41.5%	39.3% / 38.2%	42.4% / 30.0%	4.6 / 4.9	1.8% / 0.0%	57.1% / 32.7%	37.4 / 24.3
3	ATL	26 – 30 L	-6.3	40.4% / 48.6%	4.3% / 5.4%	0.0% / 8.6%	5.4 / 7.5	31.6% / 48.3%	26.3% / 13.8%	3.7 / 5.2	66 / 66	41.5% / 50.9%	37.9% / 48.5%	31.8% / 34.7%	4.9 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 43.9%	29.7 / 27.8
4	@MIN	14 – 7 W	2.8	40.5% / 40.6%	16.2% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.2	32.4% / 63.6%	29.4% / 9.1%	2.9 / 4.0	71 / 54	43.4% / 55.8%	36.6% / 50.0%	31.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 5.6%	47.9% / 40.7%	30.0 / 25.2
5	CAR	24 – 27 L	-6.3	51.2% / 50.0%	14.6% / 8.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 9.3	40.0% / 17.6%	40.0% / 32.4%	3.3 / 0.9	56 / 70	52.4% / 37.0%	48.2% / 34.3%	53.7% / 53.7%	4.3 / 5.2	1.8% / 0.0%	26.8% / 48.6%	29.8 / 31.7
6	@NO	38 – 52 L	-15.8	35.1% / 45.2%	8.8% / 0.0%	5.8% / 6.5%	4.9 / 6.0	15.8% / 45.9%	36.8% / 13.5%	3.5 / 5.2	76 / 68	24.6% / 50.9%	30.3% / 45.6%	53.3% / 51.7%	4.6 / 5.6	2.6% / 1.5%	25.0% / 54.4%	27.6 / 29.4

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Oct 29

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis