Game Analysis

Lean – DENVER (+2.5) over Pittsburgh

• Bo Nix did not have a shining debut with just a 28.6% success rate in Seattle (31st).
• Nix had 3 turnover-worthy plays last game which is something he hadn’t done in a game since 2021 at Auburn.
• Nix only had two completions on passes with 10+ air yards against the Seahawks.
• It isn’t going to get less demanding for Nix in his second start as he is likely to be under fire in this game. Denver RT Mike McGlinchey allowed 49 pressures last season (6th-most) and he will struggle across from edge defender TJ Watt, who had a sack and two more quarterback hits in week 1.
• Broncos LT Garett Bolles ranked 15th in pass blocking efficiency last season but he is nursing an ankle contusion which may hamper him versus edge rusher Alex Highsmith, who had 69 pressures in 2023 (13th).
• Nix is not going to get bailed out by his ground game as the Steelers allowed only a 35.4% rush success rate last season (5th).
• Justin Fields showed he is who he always has been, averaging 5.3 yppp in week 1 which is the same as his career mark and he didn’t have a single target in the middle of the field.
• Fields excelled throwing the ball deep going 3-of-4 for 85 and his best downfield shot was called back due to a pass interference penalty.
• Pittsburgh WR George Pickens averaged 4.03 yards per route run last week (4th) but he will be shut down by All-Pro CB Pat Surtain.
• Fields wouldn’t have been able to find Pickens deep as much in this game anyway with collapsing pockets. Steelers backup LG Spencer Anderson will not be able to contain interior defender Zach Allen, who had 4 pressures in week 1 (6th) coming off a 60-pressure season in 2023.
• Denver edge defender Jonathon Cooper had 7 pressures in Seattle after ranking 20th in pass rushing efficiency last year and he has a favorable matchup across from RT Broderick Jones, who surrendered 2 sacks last week.
• The Broncos defense used light boxes for 55% of Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker’s carries in week 1 which cannot continue versus Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who used at least 3 tight ends on 32% of snaps last week.
• The Steelers had a league-low 37.9% pass rate in Smith’s debut at offensive coordinator and they’ll continue pounding the rock as Denver’s defense surrendered a 41.7% rush success rate in 2023 (27th).
• Mike Tomlin wants to be conservative on the road and he is perfectly content to win games the way they did last week without scoring a touchdown. Pittsburgh has won 5 games without an offensive touchdown under Tomlin.
• The Broncos typically have an increased home field advantage early in the season at altitude as players get themselves into shape. Denver is 42-9 SU at home in the first two weeks since 1980.
• Our model favors the Steelers by 1.3 with a predicted total of 40.9 points, but Pittsburgh tends to play conservatively away from home and the Steelers have been 52-20-2 Under in all regular season road games since 2015 with an average total score that has been 3.7 points lower than the average total in those games.
• Denver seems to have an advantage when playing at their high altitude home early in the season, perhaps because opponents aren’t in mid-season condition and have trouble catching their breath in the thin air – which Denver players are accustomed to. The Broncos are 42-9 straight up at home in the first two weeks of the season since 1980 and are 17-3-3 ATS in those games when not favored by 3 points or more.
• Also, Pittsburgh’s long time head coach Mike Tomlin has some of the significant coaching trends I’ve ever seen. Tomlin’s teams are better against good teams, in division games, and after losses. Neither of those applies here and the Steelers are just 9-32-1 ATS in non-division games after a win when facing a team with a win percentage of 0.400 or lower, including 4-20 ATS on the road.