Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Pittsburgh

Lean – Under (37)

• Pittsburgh beat Baltimore last week and is 2-0 this year in games they have not scored a touchdown while the rest of the league is 2-19.
• The Steelers are averaging 21% more yppp against Cover 1 than other coverages (8th) and the Browns call Cover 1 at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL but I do not think Russell Wilson’s moon ball has a favorable matchup on Thursday night because a windy and rainy Cleveland is projecting scoring conditions more than 7 points worse than average according to our numbers.
• Pittsburgh WR George Pickens is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (16th) but Cleveland’s defense can counter with CB Denzel Ward, whose 8 pass breakups lead the league.
• Browns starting right tackle Dawand Jones is out but the loss is cancelled out by the Steelers missed edge defender Alex Highsmith, who ranked 13th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Cleveland’s offense is averaging 22% more yppp versus Cover 3 than other coverages and I expect Jameis Winston to feature WR Cedric Tillman against Pittsburgh’s defense with the 4th-highest Cover 3 rate.
• Our model favors the Steelers by 2.6 points and the Steelers apply to a 51-129-5 ATS road favorite letdown game based on last week’s win over the Ravens.
• The model predicted total is 36.0 points, and the Steelers have a long history of going under the total in road games (56-26-2 Under since 2015).

Cleveland is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 -115 odds or better.