Pittsburgh Steelers @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Sep 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: Cleveland Browns +8.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Opinion – CLEVELAND (+8.5) over Pittsburgh

This opinion is all about perception. Cleveland is coming into this season with the 2nd lowest win total (4.5) in the NFL and a home team getting 9 or more points in week 1 is very rare – it’s only happened 3 times in the last decade (the home team covered on all 3 occasions). Suffice to say, after a 1-win 2016 campaign, the Browns public perception is historically low. However, Cleveland wasn’t quite as bad as their 1-15 record indicates. The Browns -188 point differential expects about 3.3 wins and they also had the 8th-worst turnover luck in the league.

There’s a lot of comparisons between Jameis Winston and Cleveland’s recently named starting QB, Deshon Kizer. Both had wildly successful first seasons in college football before experiencing a year 2 drop-off. Winston threw 25 TDs, 18 INTs with 8.4 yards/attempt compared to Kizer’s 26 TDs, 9 INTs, and 8.1 yards/attempt in their seasons before getting drafted. Florida State continued to win despite the drop in QB production and Winston was still drafted first overall in the 2015 draft. Notre Dame won 6 fewer games in Kizer’s second season and he was relegated to a mid-2nd round pick. The difference is perception. I don’t expect Kizer to be great but he should be an improvement at the most important position on the field.

The release of former All-Pro CB Joe Haden surprised many but after a bad concussion in 2015 Haden’s performance level has drastically declined. Haden ranked 76th out of 87 qualifying cornerbacks in adjusted yards per pass allowed in 2016 so his release appears to be more than just a salary dump. Pittsburgh picked up Haden after he was released but it’s uncertain which version of Haden they’ll be getting. My guess is that the Browns probably wouldn’t have released Haden if they thought he was still an elite cornerback so he may not be of much help to Pittsburgh. I guess we’ll have to see.

I think Pittsburgh is as good as they are perceived to be but Cleveland appears to be underrated. I’ll lean with the Browns and would consider Cleveland a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Steelers
  • Browns
PIT
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.4 39.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.1% 46.8%
  • Sack Rate 3.2% 6.2%
  • Int Rate 3.1% 2.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.7% 15.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 46.0% 36.1%
  • NYPP 7.2 6.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.3 23.1
  • RB YPR 4.1 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 20.4% 26.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.5% 41.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.1% 40.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.0




Game

  • All Snaps 64.7 62.5
  • Early Down Succ 50.6% 46.1%
  • Succ Rate 47.8% 45.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.8% 38.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 1.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.1 27.5
  • Run Ratio 42.2% 36.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.6 29.0
  • Game Control 2.2 -2.2
 
  • Points 24.4 20.6
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