Game Analysis
Opinion – CLEVELAND (+8.5) over Pittsburgh
This opinion is all about perception. Cleveland is coming into this season with the 2nd lowest win total (4.5) in the NFL and a home team getting 9 or more points in week 1 is very rare – it’s only happened 3 times in the last decade (the home team covered on all 3 occasions). Suffice to say, after a 1-win 2016 campaign, the Browns public perception is historically low. However, Cleveland wasn’t quite as bad as their 1-15 record indicates. The Browns -188 point differential expects about 3.3 wins and they also had the 8th-worst turnover luck in the league.
There’s a lot of comparisons between Jameis Winston and Cleveland’s recently named starting QB, Deshon Kizer. Both had wildly successful first seasons in college football before experiencing a year 2 drop-off. Winston threw 25 TDs, 18 INTs with 8.4 yards/attempt compared to Kizer’s 26 TDs, 9 INTs, and 8.1 yards/attempt in their seasons before getting drafted. Florida State continued to win despite the drop in QB production and Winston was still drafted first overall in the 2015 draft. Notre Dame won 6 fewer games in Kizer’s second season and he was relegated to a mid-2nd round pick. The difference is perception. I don’t expect Kizer to be great but he should be an improvement at the most important position on the field.
The release of former All-Pro CB Joe Haden surprised many but after a bad concussion in 2015 Haden’s performance level has drastically declined. Haden ranked 76th out of 87 qualifying cornerbacks in adjusted yards per pass allowed in 2016 so his release appears to be more than just a salary dump. Pittsburgh picked up Haden after he was released but it’s uncertain which version of Haden they’ll be getting. My guess is that the Browns probably wouldn’t have released Haden if they thought he was still an elite cornerback so he may not be of much help to Pittsburgh. I guess we’ll have to see.
I think Pittsburgh is as good as they are perceived to be but Cleveland appears to be underrated. I’ll lean with the Browns and would consider Cleveland a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.4
39.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.1%
46.8%
-
Sack Rate
3.2%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.7%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.0%
36.1%
-
NYPP
7.2
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.3
23.1
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
20.4%
26.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.5%
41.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.1%
40.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
64.7
62.5
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
46.1%
-
Succ Rate
47.8%
45.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.8%
38.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.1
27.5
-
Run Ratio
42.2%
36.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.6
29.0
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
35.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.9%
49.2%
-
Sack Rate
10.6%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.5%
38.1%
-
NYPP
5.1
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.0
31.9
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
30.3%
19.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.4%
46.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.3%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
61.4
67.3
-
Early Down Succ
41.4%
49.5%
-
Succ Rate
40.7%
48.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.5%
41.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
29.4
-
Run Ratio
35.6%
47.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
23.4
30.0
-
Game Control
-5.1
5.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@WAS |
38 – 16 W |
6.2 |
60.5% / 48.8% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
2.7% / 4.7% |
7.6 / 7.7 |
65.6% / 58.3% |
12.5% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
70 / 55 |
64.7% / 58.1% |
62.9% / 50.9% |
59.2% / 25.0% |
6.2 / 7.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.7% / 21.8% |
27.3 / 30.1 |
2 |
CIN |
24 – 16 W |
6.0 |
42.1% / 50.9% |
2.6% / 1.8% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 6.7 |
41.7% / 22.2% |
30.6% / 27.8% |
3.4 / 2.6 |
74 / 73 |
42.9% / 48.2% |
41.9% / 43.8% |
43.3% / 42.5% |
5.1 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 2.7% |
48.6% / 24.7% |
30.8 / 18.9 |
3 |
@PHI |
3 – 34 L |
-15.2 |
33.3% / 54.8% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 9.7 |
30.0% / 40.0% |
30.0% / 33.3% |
2.9 / 4.2 |
58 / 61 |
33.3% / 49.0% |
32.8% / 47.5% |
50.2% / 57.7% |
4.3 / 7.0 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
17.2% / 49.2% |
22.5 / 27.1 |
4 |
KC |
43 – 14 W |
25.5 |
55.2% / 44.4% |
6.9% / 7.4% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
9.9 / 5.0 |
40.7% / 22.2% |
22.2% / 22.2% |
5.6 / 4.8 |
56 / 72 |
50.0% / 34.6% |
48.2% / 38.9% |
59.4% / 18.5% |
7.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
48.2% / 25.0% |
31.4 / 24.5 |
5 |
NYJ |
31 – 13 W |
4.6 |
60.4% / 46.3% |
2.1% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 6.0 |
26.9% / 47.1% |
23.1% / 29.4% |
2.4 / 4.2 |
74 / 58 |
52.5% / 54.3% |
48.6% / 46.6% |
23.9% / 8.9% |
5.9 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
35.1% / 29.3% |
32.3 / 21.1 |
6 |
@MIA |
15 – 30 L |
-5.2 |
40.5% / 56.3% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 7.9 |
41.2% / 51.4% |
5.9% / 24.3% |
7.6 / 6.0 |
54 / 69 |
47.5% / 56.6% |
40.7% / 53.6% |
36.2% / 60.6% |
5.5 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.5% / 53.6% |
23.4 / 37.0 |
7 |
NE |
16 – 27 L |
-6.2 |
39.1% / 57.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 8.5 |
40.9% / 53.3% |
27.3% / 16.7% |
4.3 / 4.7 |
68 / 56 |
42.0% / 57.1% |
39.7% / 55.4% |
35.7% / 33.1% |
5.5 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
32.4% / 53.6% |
32.3 / 29.6 |
9 |
@BAL |
14 – 21 L |
-9.0 |
31.9% / 33.3% |
4.3% / 9.1% |
2.2% / 3.3% |
5.1 / 6.8 |
21.1% / 19.4% |
36.8% / 35.5% |
1.9 / 1.7 |
66 / 64 |
30.4% / 30.2% |
28.8% / 26.6% |
51.8% / 50.4% |
4.2 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 48.4% |
24.4 / 30.9 |
10 |
DAL |
30 – 35 L |
1.1 |
61.7% / 52.9% |
2.1% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.5 / 8.7 |
47.4% / 68.0% |
26.3% / 12.0% |
2.5 / 5.1 |
66 / 59 |
60.7% / 60.9% |
57.6% / 59.3% |
44.4% / 42.4% |
6.8 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
28.8% / 42.4% |
31.1 / 28.1 |
11 |
@CLE |
24 – 9 W |
7.7 |
44.4% / 32.7% |
0.0% / 16.3% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.6 / 3.6 |
57.1% / 30.8% |
7.1% / 46.2% |
5.2 / 2.5 |
64 / 62 |
51.0% / 26.2% |
50.0% / 32.3% |
24.6% / 65.1% |
4.9 / 3.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
43.8% / 21.0% |
21.7 / 27.0 |
12 |
@IND |
28 – 7 W |
12.2 |
47.6% / 45.0% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
10.5 / 5.5 |
65.5% / 30.4% |
6.9% / 26.1% |
5.1 / 4.0 |
50 / 63 |
56.4% / 34.1% |
58.0% / 39.7% |
61.5% / 37.4% |
7.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
58.0% / 36.5% |
24.6 / 27.1 |
13 |
NYG |
24 – 14 W |
8.8 |
46.2% / 39.0% |
5.1% / 4.9% |
2.7% / 5.1% |
7.0 / 4.3 |
32.3% / 46.7% |
19.4% / 13.3% |
3.8 / 3.8 |
70 / 56 |
38.5% / 47.5% |
40.0% / 41.1% |
45.1% / 36.6% |
5.6 / 4.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
44.3% / 26.8% |
26.8 / 34.3 |
14 |
@BUF |
27 – 20 W |
9.0 |
48.4% / 43.3% |
0.0% / 16.7% |
9.7% / 4.0% |
7.1 / 6.9 |
59.1% / 38.9% |
15.9% / 38.9% |
5.5 / 3.7 |
75 / 48 |
60.7% / 43.6% |
54.7% / 41.7% |
50.5% / 52.4% |
6.2 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
58.7% / 37.5% |
32.4 / 28.3 |
15 |
@CIN |
24 – 20 W |
-4.9 |
52.8% / 46.4% |
2.8% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
7.9 / 5.2 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
20.6% / 35.7% |
2.9 / 2.7 |
70 / 56 |
56.0% / 46.5% |
47.1% / 48.2% |
50.1% / 21.2% |
5.5 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.6% / 50.0% |
30.2 / 30.4 |
16 |
BAL |
31 – 27 W |
0.0 |
64.5% / 43.8% |
0.0% / 8.3% |
6.5% / 2.3% |
9.0 / 5.1 |
78.3% / 53.8% |
8.7% / 19.2% |
5.6 / 4.7 |
54 / 74 |
77.8% / 48.1% |
70.4% / 47.3% |
49.9% / 25.5% |
7.5 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 9.5% |
42.6% / 35.1% |
21.5 / 37.5 |
17 |
CLE |
27 – 24 W |
-5.8 |
41.5% / 43.2% |
9.8% / 9.1% |
2.7% / 2.5% |
5.9 / 4.7 |
28.6% / 54.5% |
39.3% / 15.2% |
2.5 / 7.0 |
69 / 77 |
37.7% / 46.8% |
36.2% / 48.1% |
39.4% / 43.7% |
4.5 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 3.9% |
40.6% / 42.9% |
23.1 / 30.2 |
18 |
MIA |
30 – 12 W |
15.9 |
57.9% / 48.8% |
5.3% / 12.2% |
11.1% / 2.8% |
9.9 / 6.2 |
45.9% / 19.0% |
16.2% / 38.1% |
4.9 / 2.5 |
56 / 62 |
54.8% / 36.4% |
50.0% / 38.7% |
55.3% / 37.4% |
6.6 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
66.1% / 33.9% |
31.7 / 32.1 |
19 |
@KC |
18 – 16 W |
3.5 |
46.9% / 42.9% |
3.1% / 2.9% |
3.2% / 2.9% |
6.8 / 4.7 |
56.8% / 50.0% |
13.5% / 14.3% |
4.7 / 4.4 |
69 / 49 |
59.2% / 47.4% |
52.2% / 44.9% |
50.0% / 33.5% |
5.7 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
53.6% / 28.6% |
30.8 / 26.9 |
20 |
@NE |
17 – 36 L |
-12.4 |
57.4% / 58.1% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 8.7 |
25.0% / 40.0% |
25.0% / 26.7% |
2.7 / 2.0 |
67 / 73 |
45.1% / 51.0% |
47.8% / 50.7% |
20.4% / 47.0% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
29.9% / 41.1% |
26.8 / 30.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@PHI |
10 – 29 L |
-7.9 |
27.6% / 43.6% |
10.3% / 5.1% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 6.9 |
38.1% / 50.0% |
28.6% / 11.8% |
5.7 / 3.9 |
50 / 73 |
36.8% / 49.1% |
32.0% / 46.6% |
71.9% / 30.0% |
5.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.0% / 46.6% |
20.8 / 38.2 |
2 |
BAL |
20 – 25 L |
7.1 |
47.2% / 46.7% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
6.1% / 4.4% |
6.7 / 6.7 |
26.1% / 30.8% |
43.5% / 19.2% |
6.3 / 3.1 |
59 / 71 |
32.6% / 35.2% |
39.0% / 40.8% |
53.2% / 37.2% |
6.6 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.0% / 36.6% |
25.7 / 27.5 |
3 |
@MIA |
24 – 30 L |
-2.6 |
40.5% / 53.8% |
9.5% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
6.2 / 8.0 |
51.5% / 56.0% |
24.2% / 12.0% |
5.2 / 4.6 |
75 / 64 |
51.7% / 61.1% |
45.3% / 54.7% |
58.7% / 47.2% |
5.7 / 6.7 |
1.3% / 1.6% |
44.0% / 39.1% |
26.8 / 28.7 |
4 |
@WAS |
20 – 31 L |
-3.5 |
55.0% / 56.7% |
2.5% / 10.0% |
2.6% / 3.7% |
5.4 / 5.2 |
57.1% / 61.5% |
21.4% / 23.1% |
5.8 / 5.6 |
68 / 56 |
54.5% / 60.4% |
55.9% / 58.9% |
27.6% / 45.2% |
5.6 / 5.4 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
41.2% / 46.4% |
27.6 / 31.9 |
5 |
NE |
13 – 33 L |
-15.1 |
45.9% / 47.6% |
5.4% / 2.4% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 9.6 |
13.0% / 42.1% |
39.1% / 15.8% |
1.2 / 2.6 |
60 / 80 |
34.1% / 46.6% |
33.3% / 45.0% |
28.5% / 54.3% |
4.4 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 47.5% |
20.7 / 30.6 |
6 |
@TEN |
26 – 28 L |
-6.2 |
43.8% / 57.7% |
12.5% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 4.2% |
6.3 / 10.4 |
33.3% / 37.5% |
40.0% / 25.0% |
2.7 / 4.3 |
63 / 58 |
44.7% / 46.5% |
41.3% / 46.6% |
42.8% / 47.8% |
5.4 / 7.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.8% / 55.2% |
20.8 / 32.7 |
7 |
@CIN |
17 – 31 L |
-8.9 |
43.2% / 48.4% |
5.4% / 9.7% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 9.3 |
53.8% / 63.3% |
19.2% / 10.0% |
6.9 / 9.0 |
63 / 61 |
49.0% / 56.9% |
47.6% / 55.7% |
44.6% / 57.8% |
5.6 / 9.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
41.3% / 49.2% |
26.8 / 20.0 |
8 |
NYJ |
28 – 31 L |
3.1 |
38.5% / 36.1% |
1.9% / 5.6% |
3.9% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 6.2 |
44.4% / 45.7% |
38.9% / 28.6% |
3.8 / 4.9 |
70 / 71 |
37.0% / 39.6% |
40.0% / 40.8% |
53.3% / 55.8% |
5.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.7% / 49.3% |
22.3 / 30.8 |
9 |
DAL |
10 – 35 L |
-13.5 |
45.2% / 67.9% |
12.9% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 9.1 |
30.8% / 48.9% |
23.1% / 13.3% |
3.5 / 3.8 |
44 / 73 |
47.1% / 58.5% |
40.9% / 56.2% |
19.8% / 40.1% |
5.0 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
29.5% / 61.6% |
21.4 / 28.6 |
10 |
@BAL |
7 – 28 L |
-5.3 |
37.1% / 54.8% |
11.4% / 4.8% |
6.5% / 5.0% |
3.2 / 6.6 |
23.1% / 37.8% |
30.8% / 21.6% |
2.5 / 3.3 |
48 / 79 |
36.8% / 48.4% |
33.3% / 46.8% |
31.3% / 35.9% |
3.0 / 5.0 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
27.1% / 46.8% |
18.1 / 38.4 |
11 |
PIT |
9 – 24 L |
-7.7 |
32.7% / 44.4% |
16.3% / 0.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
3.6 / 4.6 |
30.8% / 57.1% |
46.2% / 7.1% |
2.5 / 5.2 |
62 / 64 |
26.2% / 51.0% |
32.3% / 50.0% |
65.1% / 24.6% |
3.4 / 4.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
21.0% / 43.8% |
27.0 / 21.7 |
12 |
NYG |
13 – 27 L |
-5.8 |
44.0% / 42.9% |
14.0% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 6.9 |
42.9% / 31.0% |
23.8% / 24.1% |
2.8 / 3.7 |
71 / 57 |
49.1% / 42.5% |
43.7% / 36.8% |
34.4% / 48.0% |
4.8 / 5.2 |
4.2% / 1.8% |
29.6% / 50.9% |
21.7 / 34.8 |
14 |
CIN |
10 – 23 L |
-13.2 |
32.3% / 50.0% |
9.7% / 12.5% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
2.7 / 4.6 |
54.5% / 68.4% |
22.7% / 5.3% |
7.7 / 5.6 |
53 / 70 |
39.5% / 61.8% |
41.5% / 60.0% |
52.4% / 22.5% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.5% / 54.3% |
16.9 / 33.7 |
15 |
@BUF |
13 – 33 L |
-9.8 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
15.2% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 6.6 |
38.1% / 62.5% |
33.3% / 15.0% |
5.1 / 7.0 |
54 / 66 |
45.2% / 60.7% |
42.6% / 57.6% |
56.5% / 40.4% |
5.0 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.9% / 60.6% |
22.6 / 33.9 |
16 |
SD |
20 – 17 W |
2.5 |
32.4% / 44.4% |
24.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
3.4 / 7.2 |
37.9% / 21.1% |
34.5% / 36.8% |
4.3 / 1.8 |
66 / 64 |
32.0% / 36.2% |
34.8% / 37.5% |
44.2% / 39.9% |
3.8 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 29.7% |
25.7 / 26.1 |
17 |
@PIT |
24 – 27 L |
5.8 |
43.2% / 41.5% |
9.1% / 9.8% |
2.5% / 2.7% |
4.7 / 5.9 |
54.5% / 28.6% |
15.2% / 39.3% |
7.0 / 2.5 |
77 / 69 |
46.8% / 37.7% |
48.1% / 36.2% |
43.7% / 39.4% |
5.7 / 4.5 |
3.9% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 40.6% |
30.2 / 23.1 |