Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Pittsburgh (+3 -115) over CAROLINA

· I think this game should be much closer to the advanced spread of Steelers -2.5 than the current price.

· Carolina does not deserve a major upgrade and Pittsburgh should not be downgraded after gaining 1.1 more yards per play than Baltimore last game.

· The Panthers didn’t do anything spectacular last week with the win in Seattle besides running the ball against a defense who could not stop it. Carolina’s offense averaged just 4.6 yppl in that game.

· The Seahawks are surrendering 0.010 EPA/rush this season (27th) and it will be much harder this week for the Panthers on the ground against a Steelers defense conceding just a 41% rush success rate since week 10 when TJ Watt came back.

· Pittsburgh CB Cameron Sutton 21st in coverage grade by PFF and he will contain wide receiver DJ Moore.

· Kenny Pickett is out but Mitch Trubisky has a 45% success rate, which is similar to Pickett’s 46% success rate. It’s worth noting that Sam Darnold has a 44% success rate, so Pittsburgh has the edge at quarterback.

· Panthers’ cornerback Jaycee Horn allowed just 49 yards in shadow coverage of DK Metcalf last week and Horn will likely shut down Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson on Sunday.

· However, Pittsburgh WR George Pickens is averaging 0.45 EPA/target and he will line up across from backup cornerback CJ Henderson.

· Our model favors the Steelers by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points.

Pittsburgh is a 1-Star Best Bet at +2.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +2).