Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-9.5) vs Pittsburgh

Strong Opinion – Lamar Jackson (Balt) Under Rushing Yards (50.5 -110) to 47.5

• Pittsburgh’s offense only managed 17 points three weeks ago in Baltimore but the Steelers’ 5.2 yppl was above their season average. Ultimately, two untimely giveaways cost Pittsburgh a chance of keeping the game closer.
• Steelers WR George Pickens wasn’t available in week 16 and Russell Wilson will be glad to have him for this game. The Ravens’ defense has a 34% man coverage rate (7th-highest) and Pickens is averaging 2.9 yards per route run versus man (6th).
• Wilson saw perfect coverage from the opposing defense on 43% of his dropbacks (2nd-most) which is an indication of Pittsburgh’s receiver talent and scheme problems.
• This game has more variance than most of the Wild Card Weekend matchup because it will come down to the amount of contested deep passes Pickens can haul in across from Ravens rookie CB Nate Wiggins, who conceded -19.2 EPA (10th).
• Lamar Jackson had a career-high 21% rate of passes with 10-19 air yards and he led the NFL with a 68% completion rate on such throws. The Steelers surrendered an 11% first down rate on intermediate passes (27th) as there are rumblings Pro Bowl S Minkah Fitzpatrick isn’t on the same page as his teammates in coverage.
• Fitzpatrick is adamant those miscommunications will be sorted out and Pittsburgh’s defense catches a break as Baltimore will likely be without WR Zay Flowers, who had a 70% separation rate (4th) and is worth 0.6 points by our metrics.
• The loss of Flowers will be amplified in this game as the Steelers had a 48% blitz rate against the Ravens in the two regular season games and Flowers leads Baltimore’s offense averaging 2.6 yards per route run against the blitz.
• Ravens WR Rashod Bateman is the remaining vertical stretcher for Jackson with Flowers sidelined. Bateman had 8 receptions with 20+ air yards (17th) and he will battle downfield across from cornerback Joey Porter, who had a 60% PFF lockdown rate (4th).
• Baltimore’s tight ends have a 30% target share (5th-highest) but Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely will be limited by Pittsburgh’s defense conceding only 0.13 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (6th).
• Lamar Jackson and Ravens RB Derrick Henry combined for 201 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground in the win last week to secure the division. Henry clearly isn’t slowing down in his 30s as he had 562 rushing yards over expectation which was his best in the last 6 seasons.
• Balitmore’s offense had a 46% rush success rate (2nd) but I expect it will be mostly Henry and designed rushes in the ground game. The Steelers are conceding a league-low 6.3 scramble yards per game and Jackson had only one scramble against Pittsburgh’s defense in the two games this year.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 10.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.5 points, but the matchups favor the Steelers.