Game Analysis

Lean – Under (35) – BALTIMORE (-2) vs Pittsburgh

· It looks like Lamar Jackson will not be in uniform once again this week and this is not a favorable matchup for backup QB Tyler Huntley.

· The Steelers blitz rate is 32% (5th) and Huntley ranks 42nd out of 44 qualifying quarterbacks in terms of first down rate difference between when he is blitzed and when he is not.

· Huntley is averaging only 5.2 yppp this season but the Ravens do have a 50% rush success rate the last four games.

· However, I do not expect much from Baltimore’s ground game on Sunday as Pittsburgh’s defense is conceding a 37% rush success rate since week 10 (5th) when TJ Watt came back.

· The Ravens have the offensive linemen to potentially slow down this Steelers pass rush. Left guard Ben Powers leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency and he will line up across from interior defender Cameron Heyward, who has 51 pressures (3rd).

· Baltimore RT Morgan Moses ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency and he should be able to limit Watt on the edge.

· The Ravens rank 3rd on defense in EPA/play since trading for linebacker Roquan Smith in week 9.

· Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game after 8 snaps when these teams met on December 11th. Mitchell Trubisky ultimately threw three interceptions in relief.

· Pittsburgh TE Pat Freiermuth is gaining 1.79 yards per route run (4th) but he will be contained by a Baltimore defense allowing 6.6 yards per target to tight ends (9th).

· The Steelers are not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs after the victory on Christmas Eve, but the chances are something like 2%.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 0.4 with a predicted total of 33.1.