Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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BALTIMORE (+3) vs Pittsburgh

The Ravens played poorly on both sides of the ball and will be pleased to get home after a tough trip to London. Last week, I wrote about the Ravens’ potential regression defensively due to their luck in the Redzone and on 3rd downs and the Jaguars put up 44 points on them. The offense didn’t fare any better as Joe Flacco was pulled after only managing 28 yards passing. It won’t get any easier this week against a Steelers pass defense that ranks 2nd according to my metrics.

Pittsburgh lost in overtime as 7-point favorites to Chicago and most are blaming the offense – but the truth is the Steelers were unlucky to lose a fumble in Chicago territory and to have a short field goal blocked at the end of the first half. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been unfortunate to convert only 32% of their 3rd downs this season and I expect their conversion percentage to raise moving forward given that the Steelers converted 43% of 3rd downs in 2016.

The line on this game is fair, as my model also pegs Pittsburgh by 3 points as the fair line. A 94-44 ATS blowout bounce-back situation would apply if the line goes up to 3 ½ points and I’d lean with Baltimore at +3 ½ points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Ravens

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.7 33.7
Succ Pass Plays 44.7% 36.4%
Sack Rate 5.1% 10.8%
Int Rate 0.9% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 19.9% 22.6%
Big Pass Yards 37.4% 34.2%
NYPP 6.1 4.0

Rush

Rush Plays 25.3 27.7
RB YPR 2.9 4.2
Stuff Rate 14.2% 23.3%
Succ Rush Plays 40.6% 43.6%
Big Rush Yards 22.9% 44.7%
Yards Per Rush 2.9 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.0 61.3
Early Down Succ 48.5% 42.2%
Succ Rate 42.4% 39.7%
Big Yards Rate 32.9% 48.5%
Yards Per Play 4.8 4.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 29.5
Run Ratio 39.0% 45.0%
Starting Field Pos 29.7 28.4
Game Control 3.6 -3.6

Points 21.3 16.7

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 27.7 38.0
Succ Pass Plays 34.0% 38.7%
Sack Rate 6.0% 6.9%
Int Rate 5.4% 7.5%
Deep Pass Rate 11.4% 20.2%
Big Pass Yards 21.5% 48.4%
NYPP 4.5 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 33.3 27.0
RB YPR 4.4 4.0
Stuff Rate 22.1% 19.0%
Succ Rush Plays 45.9% 35.3%
Big Rush Yards 48.6% 48.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.1

Game

All Snaps 61.0 65.0
Early Down Succ 43.1% 39.6%
Succ Rate 40.8% 36.1%
Big Yards Rate 37.1% 49.5%
Yards Per Play 4.3 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.7 26.6
Run Ratio 54.7% 41.1%
Starting Field Pos 30.1 30.5
Game Control -1.2 1.2

Points 17.0 18.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	21 – 18 W	5.8	45.9% / 43.2%	2.7% / 18.9%	2.8% / 3.3%	6.9 / 4.9	16.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	1.5 / 2.3	62 / 62	41.0% / 41.7%	33.9% / 40.3%	35.2% / 45.1%	4.7 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	20.8 / 28.6
2	MIN	26 – 9 W	9.3	40.5% / 32.5%	5.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.7	41.2% / 50.0%	20.6% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.6	71 / 60	48.1% / 42.9%	40.8% / 38.3%	34.1% / 45.1%	4.7 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.7%	47.9% / 33.3%	31.8 / 23.9
3	@CHI	17 – 23 L	-4.4	47.6% / 33.3%	7.1% / 8.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.0 / 3.5	64.7% / 44.7%	5.9% / 28.9%	4.1 / 5.8	59 / 62	56.3% / 42.0%	52.5% / 40.3%	29.4% / 55.3%	4.8 / 4.9	3.4% / 1.6%	28.8% / 61.3%	36.4 / 32.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CIN	20 – 0 W	11.0	27.8% / 30.6%	5.6% / 13.9%	5.9% / 12.9%	6.2 / 4.0	45.2% / 36.4%	19.0% / 22.7%	3.7 / 3.5	60 / 58	39.1% / 34.1%	40.0% / 32.8%	32.1% / 45.7%	4.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.7%	70.0% / 37.9%	32.2 / 30.8
2	CLE	24 – 10 W	9.4	50.0% / 31.1%	5.6% / 6.7%	2.9% / 9.5%	5.6 / 6.5	36.4% / 38.1%	27.3% / 23.8%	4.2 / 4.4	69 / 66	47.3% / 36.5%	43.5% / 33.3%	39.9% / 67.1%	4.9 / 5.8	1.4% / 1.5%	47.8% / 31.8%	33.9 / 22.3
3	@JAC	7 – 44 L	-23.9	24.1% / 54.5%	6.9% / 0.0%	7.4% / 0.0%	1.8 / 7.4	56.0% / 31.6%	20.0% / 10.5%	5.4 / 4.4	54 / 71	42.9% / 48.1%	38.9% / 42.3%	39.2% / 35.8%	3.4 / 5.8	1.9% / 0.0%	46.3% / 53.5%	24.1 / 38.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis