Game Analysis

ATLANTA (pk) vs Pittsburgh

· The Steelers have faced the most difficult schedule this season according to our metrics and are coming off two wins in three weeks when the competition dropped against the Saints and Colts. The Falcons will be another below average team.

· Atlanta’s offense has a 45.3% rush success rate (4th) and they call a run play on a league-high 52.5% of snaps, but they will be shut down on the ground this week. Pittsburgh’s defense is conceding only 3.4 yards per rush in the four games with edge defender TJ Watt on the field.

· Watt will battle pass rushing versus Falcons RT Kaleb McGary, who ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Atlanta has started five different left guards in five weeks, and it will be a favorable matchup for interior defender Cameron Heyward against whomever the Falcons put across from him. Heyward has 32 pressures this season (13th).

· Marcus Mariota will not have his tight end Kyle Pitts, who is out for the season. Top receiver Drake London will be contained by Steelers cornerback Cameron Sutton, who ranks 17th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Kenny Pickett had five carries for 34 yards last Monday night and he will likely look to scramble again this week with his receivers blanketed.

· Atlanta cornerback AJ Terrell only conceded 1 reception for 3 yards in shadow coverage versus Terry McLaurin last week and he will shut down WR George Pickens, who is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (12th).

· Falcons’ backup CB Darren Hall surrendered two touchdowns last game but he will be fine against Pittsburgh’s second wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who has just a 44% success rate.

· Atlanta’s defense is allowing 0.122 EPA/dropback (28th) but they’ve limited tight ends to 6.8 yards per target (12th). TE Pat Freiermuth is averaging 1.73 yards per route run (5th) but Pickett likely won’t be able to get him the ball too much.

· Falcons’ interior defender Grady Jarrett has 36 pressures (9th), but Steelers guards Kevin Dotson and James Daniels are both tied for 8th in pass blocking efficiency. Colts Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner did not have a pressure against Pittsburgh’s guards last week.

· Our model favors the Steelers by 0.4 with a predicted total of 43.4.