Game Analysis
Pittsburgh (-2.5) vs ARIZONA
The Steelers might get top wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster back this week after sitting out the last two games with a knee injury and a concussion. Smith-Schuster is running 62.7% of his routes in the slot this season and would have a favorable matchup this week if available, as the Cardinals just released starting nickelback Tramaine Brock. James Washington ran 14 of his 23 routes last week in the slot and could take advantage of Brock absence if Smith-Schuster remains sidelined. Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks are targeting running backs of 24.6% of passes this year and I expect Devlin Hodges to continue utilizing screens and check-downs on Sunday. Arizona’s defense is allowing 7.3 yards per target to opposing running backs (27th) with Jordan Hicks and Haason Reddick both ranked in the bottom 5 in yards allowed per cover snap among linebackers. Corey Peters has a 14% pass rush win rate (9th) and the veteran interior defender will wreak havoc across from left guard Ramon Foster, who ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
The Steelers are surrendering less than 5 yards per play and their success starts up front with the interior defenders. Javon Hargrave ranks 1st in pass rushing efficiency while Cameron Heyward ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency and 10th in run stop rate. However, Hargrave and Heyward are likely to be neutralized in this matchup as the three Cardinals interior offensive linemen are conceding only 4.1 pressures per game combined. Larry Fitzgerald should have a productive outing on the inside across from nickelback Mike Hilton, who is allowing 1.48 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst).
Devlin Hodges has been a significant upgrade over Mason Rudolph, which should continue on Sunday – especially if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns to the lineup. Kyler Murray had the worst game of his young career last week, but he has a chance to bounce back in this matchup. Our model favors Pittsburgh by 2.0 points with a predicted total of 45.7 points – although you should be aware that the Steelers are now 30-2-1 Under in road games when the total is 49 points or less (4-1 UN this season).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.2
37.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.1%
40.2%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
9.4%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
3.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
15.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.7%
35.6%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
27.2
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
28.4%
24.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.1%
43.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.8%
30.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
59.0
65.1
-
Early Down Succ
44.2%
43.5%
-
Succ Rate
41.4%
41.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
33.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
2.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
28.7
-
Run Ratio
42.2%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.2
30.2
-
Game Control
-0.1
0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
41.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.2%
53.6%
-
Sack Rate
8.8%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.7%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.3%
44.3%
-
NYPP
5.6
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
27.3
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
23.3%
25.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.4%
44.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.9%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
68.4
-
Early Down Succ
46.7%
51.8%
-
Succ Rate
44.0%
50.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.2%
44.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.3
29.5
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
27.2
-
Game Control
-3.6
3.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
3 – 33 L |
-16.3 |
35.4% /
57.9% |
2.1% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
9.6 |
53.8% /
41.4% |
23.1% /
24.1% |
2.5 /
3.4 |
61 /
67 |
43.5% /
50.9% |
39.3% /
50.7% |
37.3% /
53.1% |
5.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.3% /
43.3% |
26.0 /
27.8 |
| 2 |
SEA |
26 – 28 L |
-0.8 |
42.9% /
56.4% |
2.9% /
10.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
7.0 |
56.3% /
45.5% |
25.0% /
24.2% |
5.1 /
4.6 |
51 /
72 |
52.5% /
55.4% |
47.1% /
51.4% |
31.4% /
42.0% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
31.4% /
45.8% |
34.5 /
25.6 |
| 3 |
@SF |
20 – 24 L |
2.2 |
24.1% /
51.5% |
6.9% /
3.0% |
3.7% /
6.3% |
5.5 /
8.1 |
50.0% /
52.5% |
27.3% /
20.0% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
51 /
73 |
39.5% /
52.5% |
35.3% /
52.1% |
52.3% /
40.1% |
4.7 /
6.0 |
2.0% /
4.1% |
43.1% /
54.8% |
26.8 /
38.3 |
| 4 |
CIN |
27 – 3 W |
10.4 |
71.0% /
24.4% |
0.0% /
17.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
8.4 /
2.3 |
36.0% /
57.9% |
40.0% /
21.1% |
2.6 /
3.8 |
56 /
64 |
63.6% /
36.2% |
55.4% /
34.4% |
39.9% /
21.7% |
5.8 /
2.7 |
1.8% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
29.7% |
32.9 /
30.3 |
| 5 |
BAL |
23 – 26 L |
-2.9 |
40.6% /
33.3% |
3.1% /
15.2% |
3.2% /
10.7% |
6.0 /
4.2 |
52.6% /
55.0% |
15.8% /
25.0% |
4.1 /
3.5 |
51 /
73 |
48.8% /
45.6% |
45.1% /
45.2% |
42.8% /
22.0% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
54.8% |
32.7 /
33.3 |
| 6 |
@LAC |
24 – 17 W |
16.2 |
55.0% /
44.4% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.0% /
4.5% |
6.6 /
7.0 |
36.1% /
21.4% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
56 /
59 |
36.6% /
34.0% |
42.9% /
39.0% |
27.0% /
24.1% |
4.6 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
64.3% /
23.7% |
37.0 /
20.0 |
| 8 |
MIA |
27 – 14 W |
-3.2 |
36.8% /
39.5% |
5.3% /
10.5% |
2.8% /
5.9% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
48.3% /
36.8% |
24.1% /
10.5% |
5.4 /
3.2 |
67 /
57 |
41.5% /
41.3% |
41.8% /
38.6% |
51.8% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
3.5% |
43.3% /
33.3% |
31.3 /
33.5 |
| 9 |
IND |
26 – 24 W |
-0.9 |
38.9% /
44.4% |
2.8% /
13.9% |
2.9% /
3.2% |
5.1 /
5.3 |
32.0% /
51.7% |
36.0% /
24.1% |
3.6 /
4.8 |
61 /
65 |
37.8% /
50.0% |
36.1% /
47.7% |
31.1% /
28.7% |
4.5 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
3.1% |
41.0% /
44.6% |
30.2 /
35.8 |
| 10 |
LA |
17 – 12 W |
1.2 |
39.0% /
34.8% |
7.3% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
5.6 /
4.7 |
18.5% /
30.4% |
44.4% /
43.5% |
1.6 /
3.8 |
68 /
69 |
30.0% /
41.5% |
30.9% /
33.3% |
30.8% /
26.1% |
4.0 /
4.4 |
2.9% /
1.4% |
39.7% /
33.3% |
27.4 /
26.0 |
| 11 |
@CLE |
7 – 21 L |
-9.7 |
41.7% /
30.3% |
8.3% /
3.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
5.7 |
37.5% /
37.1% |
37.5% /
31.4% |
3.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
68 |
48.0% /
33.3% |
40.6% /
33.8% |
28.8% /
54.6% |
3.7 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
51.5% |
21.8 /
41.5 |
| 12 |
@CIN |
16 – 10 W |
0.7 |
30.0% /
26.7% |
10.0% /
13.3% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.3 |
36.8% /
38.1% |
21.1% /
19.0% |
4.2 /
4.1 |
68 /
51 |
36.7% /
35.9% |
33.8% /
31.4% |
57.5% /
50.8% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.9% |
55.9% /
41.2% |
30.4 /
23.8 |
| 13 |
CLE |
20 – 13 W |
1.7 |
50.0% /
38.5% |
4.5% /
12.8% |
4.8% /
2.9% |
9.0 /
4.4 |
46.9% /
50.0% |
18.8% /
12.5% |
3.9 /
4.4 |
54 /
63 |
52.4% /
44.9% |
48.1% /
42.9% |
54.2% /
39.1% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
59.3% /
38.1% |
30.8 /
26.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DET |
27 – 27 T |
-9.4 |
35.6% /
47.9% |
8.5% /
6.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.5 |
56.5% /
53.1% |
13.0% /
25.0% |
4.9 /
3.6 |
82 /
80 |
41.7% /
57.6% |
41.5% /
50.0% |
39.5% /
45.5% |
4.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
28.0% /
40.0% |
28.4 /
26.5 |
| 2 |
@BAL |
17 – 23 L |
-6.7 |
44.2% /
46.2% |
7.0% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.6 |
36.4% /
45.5% |
36.4% /
15.2% |
1.8 /
5.5 |
54 /
72 |
48.8% /
47.3% |
42.6% /
45.8% |
65.9% /
62.3% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
20.4% /
45.8% |
20.0 /
28.7 |
| 3 |
CAR |
20 – 38 L |
-4.1 |
35.3% /
60.7% |
15.7% /
7.1% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
2.5 /
8.6 |
68.2% /
38.7% |
18.2% /
16.1% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
73 /
59 |
41.8% /
53.2% |
45.2% /
49.2% |
35.1% /
46.7% |
3.4 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
30.1% /
52.5% |
22.5 /
36.2 |
| 4 |
SEA |
10 – 27 L |
-11.8 |
44.4% /
56.3% |
11.1% /
12.5% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.0 |
56.5% /
63.0% |
13.0% /
25.9% |
5.0 /
4.3 |
59 /
59 |
53.1% /
63.3% |
49.2% /
59.3% |
37.1% /
27.4% |
5.4 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
45.8% |
21.9 /
27.6 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
26 – 23 W |
4.5 |
45.5% /
53.8% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
6.7 |
57.9% /
65.2% |
13.2% /
30.4% |
7.0 /
4.7 |
71 /
62 |
53.6% /
63.3% |
52.1% /
58.1% |
53.5% /
31.6% |
7.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.5% /
37.1% |
27.6 /
25.0 |
| 6 |
ATL |
34 – 33 W |
4.9 |
62.2% /
68.4% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
9.0 |
34.5% /
52.0% |
24.1% /
20.0% |
3.5 /
4.1 |
66 /
63 |
51.0% /
63.5% |
50.0% /
61.9% |
55.4% /
37.6% |
6.7 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
39.7% |
27.3 /
22.4 |
| 7 |
@NYG |
27 – 21 W |
6.5 |
43.5% /
41.9% |
8.7% /
18.6% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
26.3% /
45.5% |
21.1% /
22.7% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
61 /
65 |
28.6% /
46.0% |
32.8% /
43.1% |
43.7% /
41.8% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
62.3% /
33.8% |
40.1 /
24.5 |
| 8 |
@NO |
9 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
36.8% /
60.5% |
10.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.2 /
8.7 |
36.4% /
44.8% |
45.5% /
17.2% |
3.6 /
4.7 |
49 /
72 |
45.7% /
54.2% |
36.7% /
54.2% |
37.1% /
45.7% |
4.8 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
40.3% |
26.1 /
31.2 |
| 9 |
SF |
25 – 28 L |
-5.3 |
48.1% /
55.3% |
11.1% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
8.2 |
60.9% /
32.3% |
17.4% /
35.5% |
6.7 /
3.3 |
50 /
69 |
59.5% /
38.8% |
54.0% /
44.9% |
58.3% /
50.9% |
7.1 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
44.9% |
18.3 /
27.6 |
| 10 |
@TB |
27 – 30 L |
-1.0 |
42.6% /
40.4% |
4.3% /
7.7% |
2.2% /
4.2% |
7.3 /
6.5 |
38.9% /
34.6% |
38.9% /
30.8% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
65 /
78 |
47.1% /
36.5% |
41.5% /
38.5% |
63.8% /
43.3% |
6.4 /
5.9 |
1.5% /
1.3% |
27.7% /
33.3% |
28.4 /
23.8 |
| 11 |
@SF |
26 – 30 L |
3.6 |
43.2% /
57.4% |
10.8% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
3.5 /
8.7 |
56.0% /
15.8% |
20.0% /
42.1% |
5.4 /
1.8 |
62 /
66 |
51.0% /
47.1% |
48.4% /
45.5% |
33.5% /
47.7% |
4.3 /
6.7 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
28.8% |
29.0 /
29.8 |
| 13 |
LA |
7 – 34 L |
-18.7 |
37.5% /
54.3% |
15.0% /
2.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
9.1 |
28.6% /
43.3% |
19.0% /
23.3% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
61 /
76 |
38.6% /
50.8% |
34.4% /
50.0% |
19.2% /
57.9% |
3.2 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
39.5% |
26.4 /
23.3 |
Pittsburgh Steelers
@ 
Arizona Cardinals