Game Analysis
Lean – WASHINGTON (+7/+6.5) over Philadelphia
The Eagles can make the playoffs with a win and Vikings loss as Nick Foles leads a late-season charge once again. Foles is up to 6.9 yards per pass play on the season and is thriving with great protection. Philadelphia’s offensive line ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency in the weeks with Foles under center but may have some problems on the road this week. Ryan Kerrigan ranks 5th in pass rush efficiency and I expect him to wreak havoc against Lane Johnson, who’s regressed significantly from his All-Pro season a year ago.
Zach Ertz broke Jason Witten’s single-season tight end reception record and remains the focal point of the offense. Witten had 110 receptions in 2012, and Ertz has 113 with one game remaining. The Redskins allowing just 6.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends (6th), but we may see them regress after cutting D.J. Swearinger for voicing critical comments about the coaching staff. Swearinger is an important cog in Washington’s defense, splitting his snaps between free safety, slot corner, and playing in the box.
Washington’s journeyman quarterback Josh Johnson is averaging a solid 6.7 yards per pass play and has been productive on the ground, adding 0.29 expected points per rush, which ranks just below Mitch Trubisky. The Redskins target tight ends at the 3rd-highest rate in the league, but both Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis may miss this game so Johnson will likely need to continue making plays with his feet.
Philadelphia’s edge rush is generating nearly 5 pressures per game more than league average, but I expect them to be limited by Trent Williams and Morgan Moses. Instead, Johnson will likely take heat on the inside from Fletcher Cox, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency, as he lines up across from Washington’s banged-up interior offensive line.
Our mode favors the Eagles by 6.1 points, so the line is pretty fair, but Washington applies to a 26-3-2 ATS late-season home underdog situation and a 68-23-2 ATS revenge angle. Also, teams that are in must-win situations (i.e. a loss would eliminate them regardless of what other teams do) are just 61-99-5 ATS against teams that are out of playoff contention in the final two weeks of the season. Last week that angle worked in going against both Miami and Carolina, so needing to win doesn’t mean that a team will play any better. After all, if the Eagles could play well whenever they needed to they wouldn’t be in a must win situation to begin with. I’ll lean with Washington.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.1
42.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.9%
49.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.3%
19.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.2%
41.9%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.9
21.7
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
24.2%
27.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.8%
45.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.3%
51.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
64.0
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
49.7%
-
Succ Rate
48.2%
47.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.3%
46.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
27.5
-
Run Ratio
38.5%
33.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
27.6
-
Game Control
-0.9
0.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.4
33.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
81.0%
89.8%
-
Sack Rate
13.9%
14.7%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.8%
15.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.8%
39.8%
-
NYPP
11.1
11.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.3
26.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
25.6%
18.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.1%
46.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.4%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
58.7
60.3
-
Early Down Succ
46.8%
47.4%
-
Succ Rate
47.6%
50.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.4%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.6
31.5
-
Run Ratio
47.3%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
26.6
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
18 – 12 W |
-0.9 |
32.4% /
31.9% |
5.4% /
8.5% |
2.9% /
2.3% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
53.6% /
44.4% |
21.4% /
27.8% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
65 /
65 |
40.4% /
38.8% |
41.5% /
35.4% |
20.6% /
49.5% |
3.6 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.7% |
22.2 /
35.2 |
| 2 |
@TB |
21 – 27 L |
-11.1 |
42.0% /
60.0% |
6.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.4 /
11.2 |
54.2% /
25.0% |
20.8% /
41.7% |
3.8 /
1.8 |
74 /
59 |
48.1% /
48.9% |
45.9% /
45.8% |
36.2% /
45.3% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
2.7% /
1.7% |
32.4% /
40.7% |
25.5 /
27.2 |
| 3 |
IND |
20 – 16 W |
0.6 |
47.6% /
39.5% |
11.9% /
4.7% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
60.0% /
38.5% |
28.6% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
5.2 |
77 /
56 |
55.6% /
45.2% |
53.2% /
39.3% |
34.0% /
46.9% |
4.9 /
3.7 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
23.2% |
21.6 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@TEN |
23 – 26 L |
2.6 |
46.3% /
47.8% |
7.4% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.8 /
7.1 |
36.4% /
39.1% |
13.6% /
34.8% |
5.3 /
3.1 |
76 /
69 |
45.9% /
47.9% |
43.4% /
44.9% |
41.0% /
38.9% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.9% /
33.3% |
28.0 /
24.4 |
| 5 |
MIN |
21 – 23 L |
-7.0 |
80.8% /
74.2% |
11.5% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.9 /
9.6 |
58.8% /
44.0% |
11.8% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
43 /
56 |
63.6% /
62.5% |
72.1% /
60.7% |
51.9% /
48.8% |
8.5 /
6.7 |
4.7% /
1.8% |
39.5% /
44.6% |
30.9 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
@NYG |
34 – 13 W |
14.8 |
48.6% /
34.0% |
2.7% /
8.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
5.4 |
51.6% /
52.9% |
16.1% /
17.6% |
3.5 /
8.6 |
68 /
64 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
50.0% /
39.1% |
32.7% /
58.4% |
5.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
26.6% |
31.4 /
25.5 |
| 7 |
CAR |
17 – 21 L |
6.8 |
51.2% /
51.2% |
9.8% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.1 |
54.2% /
61.1% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
2.4 /
6.8 |
65 /
59 |
57.1% /
57.8% |
52.3% /
54.2% |
37.7% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
30.5% |
19.8 /
26.3 |
| 8 |
@JAC |
24 – 18 W |
2.2 |
52.9% /
44.4% |
11.8% /
8.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.9 |
41.9% /
64.7% |
12.9% /
17.6% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
65 /
62 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
47.7% /
50.0% |
62.6% /
34.3% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
47.7% /
27.4% |
26.9 /
29.0 |
| 10 |
DAL |
20 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
55.6% /
50.0% |
4.4% /
10.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.0 |
56.3% /
46.4% |
31.3% /
21.4% |
4.4 /
6.1 |
61 /
68 |
61.2% /
47.1% |
55.7% /
48.5% |
32.1% /
50.2% |
6.9 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.2% /
41.2% |
32.3 /
25.6 |
| 11 |
@NO |
7 – 48 L |
-20.4 |
36.1% /
68.8% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
11.7 |
58.3% /
44.7% |
25.0% /
26.3% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
48 /
70 |
47.2% /
57.1% |
41.7% /
55.7% |
14.3% /
56.5% |
4.1 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
54.3% |
25.1 /
27.2 |
| 12 |
NYG |
25 – 22 W |
-6.0 |
51.6% /
48.7% |
9.7% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.9 /
7.1 |
40.0% /
44.4% |
26.7% /
27.8% |
4.3 /
7.0 |
61 /
57 |
51.1% /
48.9% |
45.9% /
47.4% |
42.4% /
48.3% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
31.6% |
31.1 /
23.9 |
| 13 |
WAS |
28 – 13 W |
4.3 |
59.0% /
25.0% |
0.0% /
10.7% |
2.6% /
4.0% |
7.8 /
4.7 |
32.4% /
35.7% |
18.9% /
42.9% |
3.6 /
7.4 |
76 /
42 |
50.9% /
31.3% |
46.1% /
28.6% |
41.1% /
60.4% |
5.8 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.7% /
33.3% |
30.0 /
23.0 |
| 14 |
@DAL |
23 – 29 L |
-3.1 |
52.9% /
57.9% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
6.5 /
7.6 |
21.4% /
50.0% |
42.9% /
27.8% |
2.4 /
3.9 |
48 /
93 |
50.0% /
54.8% |
43.8% /
54.8% |
45.7% /
38.0% |
5.3 /
6.2 |
2.1% /
1.1% |
29.2% /
38.7% |
36.4 /
22.6 |
| 15 |
@LA |
30 – 23 W |
4.8 |
38.7% /
56.4% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
3.2% /
3.7% |
8.7 /
6.0 |
36.7% /
55.6% |
23.3% /
33.3% |
3.7 /
4.6 |
61 /
73 |
40.4% /
61.7% |
37.7% /
56.2% |
39.6% /
32.2% |
6.2 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.2% /
24.7% |
38.8 /
25.4 |
| 16 |
HOU |
32 – 30 W |
2.8 |
52.0% /
47.7% |
2.0% /
9.1% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
7.0 |
31.8% /
36.8% |
45.5% /
26.3% |
2.6 /
3.3 |
72 /
63 |
38.5% /
48.1% |
45.8% /
44.4% |
57.2% /
33.4% |
7.2 /
5.9 |
2.8% /
1.6% |
30.6% /
30.2% |
24.8 /
36.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ARI |
24 – 6 W |
13.7 |
600.0% /
700.0% |
100.0% /
100.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
82.3 /
72.5 |
46.5% /
56.3% |
25.6% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
46 /
18 |
50.0% /
53.7% |
82.6% /
127.8% |
47.0% /
35.0% |
9.3 /
11.9 |
2.2% /
5.6% |
93.5% /
88.9% |
18.0 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
IND |
9 – 21 L |
-8.3 |
48.9% /
43.8% |
6.4% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
5.7 /
5.5 |
40.9% /
40.0% |
40.9% /
13.3% |
3.0 /
3.5 |
69 /
62 |
50.0% /
40.5% |
46.4% /
41.9% |
28.1% /
25.4% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
48.4% |
29.3 /
24.7 |
| 3 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
12.0 |
50.0% /
34.7% |
0.0% /
8.2% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
11.0 /
4.9 |
32.4% /
64.7% |
10.8% /
11.8% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
57 /
66 |
40.5% /
42.9% |
38.6% /
42.4% |
60.1% /
35.9% |
6.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
64.9% /
25.8% |
30.8 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
@NO |
19 – 43 L |
-15.4 |
69.2% /
71.4% |
11.5% /
7.1% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
12.5 |
50.0% /
36.1% |
27.8% /
5.6% |
2.2 /
2.8 |
44 /
64 |
48.8% /
54.9% |
61.4% /
51.6% |
51.2% /
54.3% |
6.4 /
7.0 |
2.3% /
1.6% |
40.9% /
56.3% |
33.4 /
36.2 |
| 6 |
CAR |
23 – 17 W |
9.4 |
35.9% /
53.7% |
7.7% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
4.0 /
6.6 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
68 /
60 |
43.8% /
58.3% |
42.6% /
51.7% |
36.3% /
25.9% |
4.3 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
42.6% /
31.7% |
33.7 /
20.3 |
| 7 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
4.7 |
42.3% /
41.0% |
3.8% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.4 |
40.6% /
54.5% |
40.6% /
27.3% |
4.1 /
3.3 |
58 /
61 |
46.7% /
48.9% |
41.4% /
45.9% |
46.6% /
45.8% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
55.2% /
36.1% |
33.4 /
21.4 |
| 8 |
@NYG |
20 – 13 W |
6.0 |
46.9% /
32.1% |
0.0% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
50.0% /
35.7% |
23.5% /
42.9% |
5.4 /
2.6 |
66 /
67 |
53.1% /
34.7% |
48.5% /
32.8% |
42.1% /
46.9% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
51.5% /
20.9% |
26.4 /
27.2 |
| 9 |
ATL |
14 – 38 L |
-12.7 |
44.9% /
45.0% |
6.1% /
5.0% |
2.2% /
2.6% |
5.9 /
8.4 |
53.3% /
62.5% |
33.3% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
6.4 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
45.1% |
46.9% /
51.6% |
36.6% /
54.4% |
5.7 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.4% /
37.5% |
23.8 /
22.7 |
| 10 |
@TB |
16 – 3 W |
4.7 |
40.0% /
62.8% |
10.0% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
5.7 /
9.3 |
56.0% /
45.8% |
32.0% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
55 /
67 |
50.0% /
56.1% |
47.3% /
56.7% |
39.9% /
36.5% |
5.2 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
45.5% /
35.8% |
29.7 /
19.0 |
| 11 |
HOU |
21 – 23 L |
-4.8 |
35.7% /
51.9% |
11.9% /
11.1% |
5.4% /
8.3% |
3.7 /
6.7 |
58.6% /
40.6% |
13.8% /
18.8% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
71 /
59 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
45.1% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
44.2% |
3.9 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.8% /
54.2% |
34.4 /
31.8 |
| 12 |
@DAL |
23 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% /
45.7% |
7.3% /
11.4% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
14.3% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
62 /
71 |
53.1% /
48.1% |
48.4% /
43.7% |
34.9% /
50.5% |
5.4 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
50.7% |
32.1 /
26.9 |
| 13 |
@PHI |
13 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
25.0% /
59.0% |
10.7% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
2.6% |
4.7 /
7.8 |
35.7% /
32.4% |
42.9% /
18.9% |
7.4 /
3.6 |
42 /
76 |
31.3% /
50.9% |
28.6% /
46.1% |
60.4% /
41.1% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
48.7% |
23.0 /
30.0 |
| 14 |
NYG |
16 – 40 L |
-22.0 |
37.1% /
37.9% |
14.3% /
6.9% |
10.0% /
3.7% |
5.8 /
6.0 |
45.5% /
44.4% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
6.3 |
57 /
65 |
46.7% /
46.9% |
40.4% /
41.5% |
65.3% /
59.3% |
5.1 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
55.4% |
27.6 /
29.6 |
| 15 |
@JAC |
16 – 13 W |
-1.6 |
39.3% /
17.4% |
10.7% /
26.1% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
4.9 /
0.9 |
37.1% /
42.3% |
31.4% /
23.1% |
3.1 /
6.6 |
63 /
49 |
37.8% /
27.8% |
38.1% /
30.6% |
30.1% /
67.7% |
3.9 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
55.6% /
53.1% |
31.5 /
23.9 |
| 16 |
@TEN |
16 – 25 L |
0.4 |
48.0% /
50.0% |
8.0% /
10.7% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.9 |
64.7% /
51.9% |
8.8% /
29.6% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
59 /
55 |
57.8% /
52.3% |
57.6% /
50.9% |
37.3% /
31.6% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.6% /
49.1% |
18.3 /
29.8 |
Philadelphia Eagles
@ 
Washington Redskins