Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – WASHINGTON (+6.5) over Philadelphia

· Philadelphia’s offensive line has surrendered 10+ pressures in back-to-back games with All-Pro RT Lane Johnson fighting through a high ankle sprain and starting RG Cam Jurgens out with a foot sprain. Washington’s defense has an 8.9% sack rate (7th) and they should be able to get to Jalen Hurts on Sunday.

· Eagles’ wide receiver AJ Brown has 7 deep receptions (3rd) and he will have some downfield routes this week as 44% of the targets against the Commanders’ defense are to the outside with at least 10 air yards (3rd-most).

· Washington’s defense is surrendering 0.24 EPA/target to tight ends (25th) and they will struggle versus TE Dallas Goedert, whose 61% success rate ranks 3rd.

· Philadelphia WR DeVonta Smith’s target share is down from 25.3% in 2022 to 20.5% this year and it is not likely to improve this week across from Kendall Fuller, who is allowing only 0.66 yards per cover snap (4th).

· Sam Howell’s 40 sacks taken are the 2nd-most in NFL history through seven games of a season. The Eagles had 5 sacks on Howell a month ago and Philadelphia’s defense has registered an 11.3% sack rate since then in the last three weeks (5th).

· Howell’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is 25% more than versus a blitz (5th) and Philadelphia defensive coordinator Sean Desai rarely sends extra pass rushers. The Eagles have an 86.7% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest).

· Howell did move the ball on the Eagles and his 5.6 yppp in that game was his 3rd-highest of the season.

· Commanders TE Logan Thomas has a 59% success rate (7th) and he has a favorable matchup against Philadelphia’s defense surrendering 0.55 EPA/target to tight ends (30th).

· The Eagles traded starting safety Terrell Edmunds to the Titans for S Kevin Byard, who has 9 interceptions and 8 more pass breakups since the start of 2021. Byard is 0.6 points better than Edmunds according to our numbers. Philadelphia’s defense ranks 10th in explosive pass rate allowed and they should move into the top 5 with Byard at deep safety.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 6.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.2 points, but the Eagles apply to a 48-119-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation and Washington applies to a 94-38-4 ATS division home revenge situation.

Washington is a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.