Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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TAMPA BAY (+3/+3.5) vs Philadelphia

Ryan Fitzpatrick was the surprise story of week 1. Tampa Bay’s veteran quarterback averaged a whopping 14.9 yards per pass play, including 4 of 5 for three touchdowns on passes thrown deeper than 20 yards in the Buccaneers’ win in New Orleans. Fitzpatrick could have been even better as he had two passes dropped by his receivers and one pass batted at the line of scrimmage. Nigel Bradham, who allowed just 0.62 yards per cover snap in 2017 (2nd among linebackers), will be back from suspension for Philadelphia’s defense and he should help limit Tampa tight end O.J. Howard, who picked up 54 yards receiving on just 16 routes run in week 1. However, the Buccaneers’ wide receiver tandem of Desean Jackson and Mike Evans should once again be tough to contain – assuming Jackson’s concussion isn’t serious. Tampa Bay’s interior offensive line was excellent versus the Saints, surrendering just 3 quarterback pressures and no sacks, but they will have a much tougher test this week against three-time All-Pro Fletcher Cox, who recorded 7 pressures in week 1 (tied for the most among interior defensive linemen). Tampa Bay’s offense will take a step back this week but there’s still reason to be optimistic moving forward and Jameis Winston may not see the field again if Fitzpatrick continues to perform at a high level.

On the other side of the ball, we saw the reason an adjustment needs to be made for Carson Wentz’s injury as Nick Foles managed just 2.3 yards per pass play in the Eagles’ opening night victory. Foles could have been better but Pro-Bowl tight end Zach Ertz had 3 drops and Alshon Jeffery was unable to suit up with a shoulder injury. Jeffery (questionable) is worth 0.3 points per game and it looks like he may return to action this week across from a Buccaneers secondary dealing with injuries of their own. Bucs’ Nickelback Vernon Hargreaves is now out for the season, and while his value isn’t significant, four-time Pro-Bowler Brent Grimes’ hamstring injury (questionable) creates a potential cluster effect for Tampa Bay’s corners. Grimes’ replacement Carlton Davis allowed 2.13 yards per cover snap last week, which ranked 73rd out of 78 qualifying cornerbacks. I’d lean with Tampa Bay if the line is solidly at +3.5 (rather than +3.5 at -120 or more).

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Buccaneers

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.5 41.0
Succ Pass Plays 37.2% 46.0%
Sack Rate 5.7% 7.1%
Int Rate 1.4% 2.7%
Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 24.9%
Big Pass Yards 17.8% 51.2%
NYPP 4.8 8.0

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 21.0
RB YPR 4.0 3.0
Stuff Rate 21.1% 34.7%
Succ Rush Plays 53.9% 34.7%
Big Rush Yards 40.3% 20.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.0

Game

All Snaps 69.5 62.0
Early Down Succ 44.3% 43.9%
Succ Rate 43.7% 40.6%
Big Yards Rate 28.4% 47.4%
Yards Per Play 4.6 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 2.1% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 25.4
Run Ratio 37.8% 34.2%
Starting Field Pos 23.9 31.2
Game Control -6.0 6.0

Points 19.5 19.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	18 – 12 W	-0.9	32.4% / 31.9%	5.4% / 8.5%	2.9% / 2.3%	3.2 / 4.8	53.6% / 44.4%	21.4% / 27.8%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	40.4% / 38.8%	41.5% / 35.4%	20.6% / 49.5%	3.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.7%	22.2 / 35.2
2	@TB	21 – 27 L	-11.1	42.0% / 60.0%	6.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.4 / 11.2	54.2% / 25.0%	20.8% / 41.7%	3.8 / 1.8	74 / 59	48.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 45.8%	36.2% / 45.3%	5.6 / 7.4	2.7% / 1.7%	32.4% / 40.7%	25.5 / 27.2

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	48 – 40 W	7.4	64.3% / 73.9%	0.0% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	14.9 / 9.4	43.2% / 69.2%	18.9% / 23.1%	3.1 / 3.3	65 / 59	56.5% / 77.6%	52.3% / 72.9%	62.7% / 36.4%	8.2 / 8.1	0.0% / 3.4%	56.9% / 22.0%	26.4 / 25.9
2	PHI	27 – 21 W	11.1	60.0% / 42.0%	5.7% / 6.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	11.2 / 6.4	25.0% / 54.2%	41.7% / 20.8%	1.8 / 3.8	59 / 74	48.9% / 48.1%	45.8% / 45.9%	45.3% / 36.2%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 2.7%	40.7% / 32.4%	27.2 / 25.5

Philadelphia Eagles @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Sep 16

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis