Game Analysis

Lean – Under (42) – Philadelphia (-5) vs NY GIANTS

· The Eagles will need a win and a Dallas loss to go from the 5-seed to the 2-seed after Philadelphia’s loss to the Cardinals last week.

· The Eagles offensive line conceded only 3 pressures last week and Jalen Hurts should be kept clean again on Sunday.

· Philadelphia C Jason Kelce ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit Giants interior defender Dexter Lawrence, who has 61 pressures (6th) but only had 1 pressure two weeks ago against the Eagles.

· Jalen Hurts had an interception and fumble against New York’s defense on Christmas, but I think he will take care of the ball better in this game. Hurts has a league-low 2.3% PFF turnover-worthy play rate in 2023.

· Philadelphia’s offense will be able to attack the Giants with the ground game. The Eagles have a 44.5% rush success rate (4th) and New York’s defense is 28th in EPA/rush allowed.

· Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert has a 60% success rate (2nd) but he will be contained by a Giants’ defense is allowing -0.06 EPA/target to tight ends (3rd).

· Eagles’ wide receiver DeVonta Smith has a 57% success rate (14th) but he is likely out.

· However, the loss of Smith won’t be felt as much in this game as it would in others as New York’s defense has a 38.1% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest) and AJ Brown is Philadelphia’s man-beating wide receiver.

· Brown is averaging 3.32 yards per route run versus man while Smith is averaging 1.42 yards per route run. Brown has a favorable matchup across from Giants CB Adoree’ Jackson, who is surrendering 1.56 yards per cover snap, which ranks 65th out of 67 qualifying cornerbacks.

· Tyrod Taylor averaged 6.0 yppp last week and New York’s offense has two dangerous receiving threats when healthy. TE Darren Waller has a 54% success rate (9th) and WR Darius Slayton is averaging 0.41 EPA/target (15th).

· Taylor took 6 sacks versus the Rams and will be under pressure again this week. Eagles’ interior defender Jalen Carter ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will line up across from LG Justin Pugh, who has surrendered 35 pressures (2nd-most).

· There is a possibility that Philadelphia’s starters do not see this game entirely through since Dallas is unlikely to lose in Washington. Nick Srianni said, ” We’re going to do whatever we need to do to win this game. But still, [resting starters] is a consideration, what you’re saying, because we think through all those different things”.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 41.1 points.