Game Analysis
*Under (50.5*/48) – LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2) vs Philadelphia
The Eagles have allowed just 4.4 yards per pass play since cornerback Ronald Darby returned to the lineup three weeks ago and the Rams will likely attempt to establish Todd Gurley early in this game with a rushing attack ranked 8th in my metrics. However, the Eagles 3rd-ranked rush defense will be the most difficult matchup Gurley has faced all season. Minnesota’s 6th-ranked rush defense is the best Los Angeles has seen to date and their offense did not perform well without a viable running game gaining just 2.6 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per play against the Vikings. I expect another subpar performance from the Rams’ offense on Sunday.
On the other side of the ball, the most glaring weakness of the Los Angeles team is their rush defense ranked 29th in my metrics. I expect the Eagles to focus on the ground game in this matchup especially considering Zach Ertz, 2nd on the team in targets, is dealing with a concussion. The more running plays the more likely a game will go under and our model projects just 47 total points in this game, which is enough value to make the Under a 1-Star Best Bet at 50 points or higher. I have no opinion on the side, as the line is fair and there are no significant situations favoring either side.
*Note: The Under on this game was released to my subscribers on Tuesday when the total was at 50.5 points. The line has come down quite a bit and it’s just a lean towards the under at the current number.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.9
41.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.1%
41.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.4%
14.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.1%
30.2%
-
NYPP
6.8
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.7
19.7
-
RB YPR
4.1
2.8
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
32.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.8%
36.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.4%
52.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
68.6
60.7
-
Early Down Succ
45.3%
43.0%
-
Succ Rate
44.1%
39.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.5%
33.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
26.7
-
Run Ratio
47.7%
32.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
27.3
-
Game Control
7.2
-7.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.8%
40.2%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
8.6%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
3.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.0%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.2%
44.4%
-
NYPP
7.8
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.2
26.5
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
26.9%
21.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
41.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.1%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
64.8
62.9
-
Early Down Succ
49.6%
42.0%
-
Succ Rate
45.9%
40.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.8%
46.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
28.4
-
Run Ratio
46.6%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.7
27.5
-
Game Control
7.4
-7.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@WAS |
30 – 17 W |
5.1 |
51.2% / 38.6% |
4.9% / 9.1% |
2.6% / 2.5% |
7.3 / 4.5 |
36.0% / 58.8% |
28.0% / 23.5% |
2.4 / 3.8 |
66 / 61 |
44.0% / 49.0% |
45.5% / 44.3% |
37.8% / 38.3% |
5.4 / 4.3 |
1.5% / 4.9% |
37.9% / 27.9% |
31.8 / 26.1 |
2 |
@KC |
20 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
44.2% / 50.0% |
11.5% / 12.5% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 7.3 |
58.8% / 47.4% |
17.6% / 26.3% |
6.3 / 5.9 |
69 / 51 |
46.3% / 51.3% |
47.8% / 49.0% |
42.4% / 45.3% |
5.9 / 6.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
24.6% / 37.3% |
26.1 / 35.6 |
3 |
NYG |
27 – 24 W |
4.0 |
41.2% / 59.6% |
8.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
4.7 / 7.8 |
48.7% / 23.5% |
23.1% / 23.5% |
5.0 / 2.9 |
73 / 64 |
47.3% / 55.8% |
45.2% / 50.0% |
30.4% / 23.4% |
4.9 / 6.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
53.4% / 26.6% |
21.5 / 34.6 |
4 |
@LAC |
26 – 24 W |
6.2 |
46.9% / 42.5% |
3.1% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 8.6 |
47.7% / 38.5% |
20.5% / 46.2% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
76 / 53 |
47.3% / 39.5% |
47.4% / 41.5% |
56.1% / 68.3% |
6.0 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
57.9% / 24.5% |
22.1 / 22.2 |
5 |
ARI |
34 – 7 W |
16.7 |
48.4% / 41.3% |
3.2% / 4.3% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 6.0 |
28.6% / 21.4% |
22.9% / 35.7% |
3.5 / 2.2 |
66 / 60 |
33.3% / 37.2% |
37.9% / 36.7% |
52.3% / 20.2% |
6.4 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
53.0% / 23.3% |
34.1 / 19.3 |
6 |
@CAR |
28 – 23 W |
3.0 |
39.4% / 37.0% |
9.1% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 5.8% |
6.3 / 4.2 |
37.9% / 48.0% |
27.6% / 40.0% |
3.6 / 3.2 |
62 / 79 |
41.9% / 45.0% |
38.7% / 40.5% |
54.2% / 20.7% |
5.0 / 3.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
46.8% / 31.6% |
32.9 / 30.0 |
7 |
WAS |
34 – 24 W |
4.7 |
53.6% / 56.8% |
10.7% / 9.1% |
4.0% / 2.5% |
8.7 / 6.1 |
29.4% / 47.4% |
23.5% / 15.8% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
62 / 63 |
39.6% / 62.5% |
40.3% / 54.0% |
63.4% / 46.4% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.8% / 30.2% |
32.5 / 27.7 |
8 |
SF |
33 – 10 W |
11.9 |
42.9% / 32.5% |
8.6% / 10.0% |
3.1% / 5.6% |
5.5 / 3.6 |
39.4% / 41.7% |
27.3% / 41.7% |
3.5 / 3.9 |
68 / 64 |
46.9% / 40.8% |
41.2% / 35.9% |
44.4% / 38.2% |
4.5 / 3.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.5% / 37.5% |
29.0 / 28.5 |
9 |
DEN |
51 – 23 W |
19.2 |
50.0% / 36.6% |
6.7% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
7.4 / 4.7 |
47.4% / 36.8% |
26.3% / 31.6% |
5.2 / 1.8 |
68 / 60 |
53.1% / 39.1% |
48.5% / 36.7% |
52.9% / 27.4% |
6.2 / 3.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
55.9% / 31.7% |
37.7 / 26.1 |
11 |
@DAL |
37 – 9 W |
8.3 |
44.4% / 30.6% |
0.0% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 9.4% |
6.2 / 3.1 |
44.4% / 42.9% |
16.7% / 28.6% |
6.1 / 4.0 |
63 / 64 |
51.2% / 42.6% |
44.4% / 35.9% |
52.1% / 28.8% |
6.1 / 3.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
57.1% / 43.8% |
27.3 / 28.9 |
12 |
CHI |
31 – 3 W |
17.1 |
45.0% / 22.9% |
2.5% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
6.1 / 3.8 |
41.7% / 6.7% |
22.2% / 53.3% |
5.0 / 0.5 |
76 / 50 |
45.1% / 18.2% |
43.4% / 18.0% |
32.6% / 7.8% |
5.6 / 2.8 |
3.9% / 0.0% |
47.4% / 30.0% |
40.5 / 27.9 |
13 |
@SEA |
10 – 24 L |
-8.3 |
45.8% / 48.5% |
6.3% / 6.1% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.3 |
53.8% / 19.2% |
23.1% / 26.9% |
3.8 / 3.9 |
74 / 59 |
48.1% / 35.6% |
48.6% / 35.6% |
51.8% / 39.5% |
5.7 / 5.3 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
35.1% / 44.1% |
25.4 / 20.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
IND |
46 – 9 W |
21.3 |
54.8% / 28.0% |
3.2% / 16.0% |
0.0% / 9.5% |
10.0 / 6.0 |
22.5% / 32.0% |
22.5% / 28.0% |
1.7 / 3.0 |
71 / 50 |
43.5% / 40.5% |
36.6% / 30.0% |
52.7% / 81.4% |
5.3 / 4.5 |
1.4% / 2.0% |
56.3% / 50.0% |
35.8 / 23.1 |
2 |
WAS |
20 – 27 L |
-4.5 |
39.3% / 48.3% |
7.1% / 6.9% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 5.4 |
59.1% / 46.2% |
13.6% / 17.9% |
4.2 / 5.9 |
50 / 68 |
51.4% / 49.1% |
48.0% / 47.1% |
61.9% / 46.2% |
6.7 / 5.7 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
44.0% / 57.4% |
22.4 / 34.5 |
3 |
@SF |
41 – 39 W |
8.5 |
64.3% / 46.3% |
0.0% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
10.4 / 7.5 |
51.5% / 51.5% |
30.3% / 27.3% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
61 / 74 |
57.4% / 47.2% |
57.4% / 48.6% |
55.4% / 50.8% |
6.9 / 5.7 |
3.3% / 1.4% |
54.1% / 44.6% |
36.1 / 36.1 |
4 |
@DAL |
35 – 30 W |
-2.3 |
48.6% / 35.1% |
2.7% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.6 / 6.8 |
65.6% / 55.6% |
21.9% / 14.8% |
5.3 / 7.0 |
69 / 64 |
63.0% / 41.7% |
56.5% / 43.8% |
51.6% / 52.3% |
6.0 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.4% / 42.2% |
34.8 / 22.4 |
5 |
SEA |
10 – 16 L |
0.8 |
35.4% / 45.0% |
4.2% / 7.5% |
4.3% / 5.4% |
5.7 / 4.5 |
40.9% / 19.2% |
45.5% / 23.1% |
4.5 / 2.4 |
70 / 66 |
33.3% / 31.3% |
37.1% / 34.8% |
44.3% / 8.7% |
5.4 / 3.7 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
31.4% / 39.4% |
29.2 / 35.2 |
6 |
@JAC |
27 – 17 W |
5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
64.7% / 42.3% |
20.6% / 30.8% |
4.2 / 6.5 |
58 / 66 |
65.9% / 42.0% |
53.4% / 39.4% |
35.5% / 54.2% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
58.6% / 39.4% |
30.5 / 25.3 |
7 |
ARI |
33 – 0 W |
16.0 |
42.1% / 28.6% |
2.6% / 8.6% |
2.7% / 6.3% |
6.0 / 4.8 |
48.8% / 25.0% |
14.6% / 41.7% |
4.8 / 2.1 |
79 / 47 |
39.7% / 27.3% |
45.6% / 27.7% |
29.1% / 35.8% |
5.4 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 25.5% |
33.8 / 26.0 |
9 |
@NYG |
51 – 17 W |
19.5 |
54.5% / 42.5% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
14.1 / 5.2 |
37.5% / 59.3% |
40.0% / 11.1% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
62 / 67 |
44.7% / 51.0% |
43.5% / 49.3% |
71.3% / 38.1% |
7.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
64.5% / 40.3% |
40.8 / 27.0 |
10 |
HOU |
33 – 7 W |
9.5 |
41.5% / 30.8% |
7.3% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
8.3 / 5.0 |
32.1% / 34.6% |
28.6% / 26.9% |
3.8 / 3.5 |
69 / 65 |
42.6% / 34.0% |
37.7% / 32.3% |
63.9% / 46.8% |
6.5 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
40.6% / 40.0% |
31.2 / 29.4 |
11 |
@MIN |
7 – 24 L |
-1.7 |
47.4% / 55.3% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 7.4 |
38.9% / 36.1% |
38.9% / 19.4% |
2.6 / 4.8 |
56 / 74 |
50.0% / 44.6% |
44.6% / 45.9% |
18.0% / 50.2% |
4.6 / 6.1 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
32.1% / 48.6% |
24.6 / 22.2 |
12 |
NO |
26 – 20 W |
7.2 |
45.8% / 45.7% |
8.3% / 8.6% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.4 |
32.1% / 47.1% |
21.4% / 11.8% |
3.3 / 7.2 |
76 / 52 |
49.1% / 52.6% |
40.8% / 46.2% |
61.0% / 51.2% |
5.5 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.8% / 32.7% |
26.2 / 21.2 |
13 |
@ARI |
32 – 16 W |
9.9 |
50.0% / 39.5% |
3.1% / 15.8% |
3.2% / 6.3% |
6.7 / 5.1 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
25.0% / 8.3% |
3.8 / 4.9 |
56 / 62 |
54.5% / 42.6% |
50.0% / 43.5% |
41.6% / 39.1% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 38.7% |
34.9 / 27.7 |