Philadelphia Eagles @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Dec 10
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 127
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -2, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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*Under (50.5*/48) – LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2) vs Philadelphia

The Eagles have allowed just 4.4 yards per pass play since cornerback Ronald Darby returned to the lineup three weeks ago and the Rams will likely attempt to establish Todd Gurley early in this game with a rushing attack ranked 8th in my metrics. However, the Eagles 3rd-ranked rush defense will be the most difficult matchup Gurley has faced all season. Minnesota’s 6th-ranked rush defense is the best Los Angeles has seen to date and their offense did not perform well without a viable running game gaining just 2.6 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per play against the Vikings. I expect another subpar performance from the Rams’ offense on Sunday.

On the other side of the ball, the most glaring weakness of the Los Angeles team is their rush defense ranked 29th in my metrics. I expect the Eagles to focus on the ground game in this matchup especially considering Zach Ertz, 2nd on the team in targets, is dealing with a concussion. The more running plays the more likely a game will go under and our model projects just 47 total points in this game, which is enough value to make the Under a 1-Star Best Bet at 50 points or higher. I have no opinion on the side, as the line is fair and there are no significant situations favoring either side.

*Note: The Under on this game was released to my subscribers on Tuesday when the total was at 50.5 points. The line has come down quite a bit and it’s just a lean towards the under at the current number.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Rams
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.9 41.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.1% 41.4%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 3.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.4% 14.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.1% 30.2%
  • NYPP 6.8 5.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.7 19.7
  • RB YPR 4.1 2.8
  • Stuff Rate 23.2% 32.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 42.8% 36.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 54.4% 52.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.4




Game

  • All Snaps 68.6 60.7
  • Early Down Succ 45.3% 43.0%
  • Succ Rate 44.1% 39.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 47.5% 33.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.0 26.7
  • Run Ratio 47.7% 32.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.1 27.3
  • Game Control 7.2 -7.2
 
  • Points 30.1 17.9
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