Game Analysis
Lean – Philadelphia (+1.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
After heart-breaking close losses in each of the first two weeks, the Chargers fell to 0-3 with their two touchdown loss to the Chiefs. However, that game was closer than the score suggests, as a -3 turnover margin was what led to the big margin of defeat. Away fans in Los Angeles have nearly matched Chargers fans in the first two home games and it seems they may have a bit less of a home-field advantage than the rest of the league, which is something that we’ll keep an eye on going forward.
The Eagles won last week on a game-winning 61-yard field goal but were outplayed as the Giants out-gained Philly by 1.7 yards per play. Philadelphia has depended on their 6th ranked rushing attack and they have a favorable matchup this week going against the Chargers 26th ranked rush defense. My model favors Philadelphia by 1 point and the line has moved enough to supply some value on the Eagles.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.3
41.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.5%
49.4%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
11.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
26.1%
33.5%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.0
17.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
22.9%
24.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.8%
43.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.3%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
69.3
58.7
-
Early Down Succ
45.9%
52.0%
-
Succ Rate
46.2%
47.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.9%
35.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
26.8
-
Run Ratio
38.6%
30.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
32.1
-
Game Control
2.4
-2.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.7
31.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.4%
43.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.4%
12.4%
-
Int Rate
3.5%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.0%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
24.2%
42.5%
-
NYPP
6.3
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.7
31.7
-
RB YPR
3.4
5.0
-
Stuff Rate
38.8%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
30.2%
44.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
63.1%
46.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
59.3
63.0
-
Early Down Succ
45.4%
45.9%
-
Succ Rate
42.8%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.8%
47.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
31.5
-
Run Ratio
34.5%
50.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
29.6
-
Game Control
-4.2
4.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@WAS |
30 – 17 W |
5.1 |
51.2% / 38.6% |
4.9% / 9.1% |
2.6% / 2.5% |
7.3 / 4.5 |
36.0% / 58.8% |
28.0% / 23.5% |
2.4 / 3.8 |
66 / 61 |
44.0% / 49.0% |
45.5% / 44.3% |
37.8% / 38.3% |
5.4 / 4.3 |
1.5% / 4.9% |
37.9% / 27.9% |
31.8 / 26.1 |
2 |
@KC |
20 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
44.2% / 50.0% |
11.5% / 12.5% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 7.3 |
58.8% / 47.4% |
17.6% / 26.3% |
6.3 / 5.9 |
69 / 51 |
46.3% / 51.3% |
47.8% / 49.0% |
42.4% / 45.3% |
5.9 / 6.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
24.6% / 37.3% |
26.1 / 35.6 |
3 |
NYG |
27 – 24 W |
4.0 |
41.2% / 59.6% |
8.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
4.7 / 7.8 |
48.7% / 23.5% |
23.1% / 23.5% |
5.0 / 2.9 |
73 / 64 |
47.3% / 55.8% |
45.2% / 50.0% |
30.4% / 23.4% |
4.9 / 6.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
53.4% / 26.6% |
21.5 / 34.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
21 – 24 L |
-6.6 |
47.1% / 50.0% |
2.9% / 12.5% |
3.0% / 3.6% |
5.4 / 5.7 |
27.3% / 40.5% |
31.8% / 18.9% |
2.9 / 3.8 |
56 / 69 |
42.9% / 44.2% |
39.3% / 44.9% |
27.7% / 47.8% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
39.3% / 53.6% |
31.6 / 31.8 |
2 |
MIA |
17 – 19 L |
2.0 |
62.5% / 44.4% |
2.5% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 6.3 |
28.6% / 36.4% |
50.0% / 30.3% |
3.1 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
58.7% / 43.4% |
53.7% / 40.6% |
28.6% / 38.9% |
6.8 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.9% / 47.8% |
24.9 / 26.4 |
3 |
KC |
10 – 24 L |
-8.0 |
35.7% / 34.6% |
4.8% / 19.2% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 4.7 |
34.6% / 56.0% |
34.6% / 20.0% |
4.0 / 7.6 |
68 / 51 |
34.5% / 50.0% |
35.3% / 45.1% |
39.1% / 55.0% |
4.9 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.2% / 49.0% |
22.8 / 30.5 |