Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs Philadelphia

· Patrick Mahomes thrives versus defenses that call man coverage because he can extend the play for longer than 3 seconds until someone gets open or he can scramble with everyone’s back to him. We saw Mahomes virtually clinch the Super Bowl by adding 10 percentage points of win probability with a 26-yard scramble on the final drive last February against the Eagles.

· Philadelphia’s defense has the 9th-highest man coverage, and the Eagles have a 77.8% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest). Mahomes’ yards per attempt versus man is 17% more than his yards per attempt against zone coverage (4th-largest gap) and his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is 26% higher than versus a blitz (6th-largest gap).

· Philadelphia interior defender Jalen Carter ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be shut down by Pro Bowl LG Joe Thuney and center Creed Humphrey, who ranks 7th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Travis Kelce leads all tight ends averaging 2.43 yards per route run and he has a favorable matchup against an Eagles defense surrendering a league-high 0.48 EPA/target to tight ends. Kelce averaged 13.5 yards per target with a touchdown in the Super Bowl.

· Kansas City’s other receiving threat has been the emergence of rookie WR Rashee Rice, who is averaging 2.72 yards per route run in the slot. However, Rice will be limited in this game as Philadelphia’s defense is getting back a crucial starter in nickelback Bradley Roby, who is conceding just 0.19 yards per cover snap in the slot. Eagles’ backup nickelbacks Mario Goodrich and Eli Ricks were combing to allow 1.80 yards per slot cover snap. Roby alone is worth about a half point to Philadelphia’s defense and remember they traded for safety Kevin Byard two games before the bye week.

· On offense, the Eagles will get an important cog back on the field as well in RG Cam Jurgens. Backup guard Sua Opeta surrendered an 8.6% pressure rate compared to Jurgens allowing a 3.9% pressure rate. Jurgens will battle on the interior across from DT Chris Jones, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis has 44 pressures (9th) but he will be contained by RT Lane Johnson, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert is averaging 0.32 EPA/target (7th) but he will be sidelined and it isn’t obvious where else Jalen Hurts will look as Kansas City’s defense specializes in taking away wide receivers.

· Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed is allowing just 0.74 yards per cover snap (10th) and might shadow wide receiver AJ Brown, who is averaging 0.61 EPA/target (5th).

· I expect the Eagles to lean on the ground game as they rank 5th in EPA/rush and Kansas City’s defense is allowing a 42.4% rush success rate (25th). It could also be wet on Monday night, which would further emphasize Philadelphia’s advantage in the running game.

· Andy Reid is 18-10 ATS with an extra week to prepare, but the Eagles are also a sharp organization and do a great job self-scouting. Nick Sirianni is 2-0 against the spread coming off a bye.

· San Francisco’s three-game skid without All-Pro LT Trent Willaims and WR Deebo Samuel really left the NFC wide open for Philadelphia. The Eagles would have about a 70% chance of securing home-field advantage if they can come away from Arrowhead with a win.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, but Kansas City applies to a 60-20-1 ATS Monday night home team situation and I used KC in my spread pool.